MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 12,000 To 260,000>

--NSA Claims Fall In Florida, Georgia, Puerto Rico; Up In Virgin Islands

--August Trade Gap Narrowed To $42.4 Bln, Slightly Smaller Than Expected

By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 12,000 to 260,000 in the September 30 week, below the 266,000 

level expected, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     Unadjusted filings in Texas fell by 3,040, while filing were down 

3,765 in Florida, down by 2,180 in Georgia, and down 175 in Puerto Rico, 

the only state estimated. Claims were up 971 in the Virgin Islands to 

1,039, a huge gain from 68 in the previous week. 

     While the level of filings remains elevated, it appears the major 

impact of the hurricanes has started to pull back. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, fell by 9,500 to 268,250 in the 

September 30 week, as the recent peak of 298,000 in the September 2 week 

rolled out of the calculation. The average could fall further next week, 

as the 281,000 level in the September 9 week will drop out. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 0.5%, or 

1,089, in unadjusted claims. Instead, unadjusted claims fell by 8,378 to 

206,653. The current week's level is still ahead of the 200,456 level in 

the comparable week a year ago. 

     The level of continuing claims rose by only 2,000 to 1.938 million 

in the September 23 week. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.4% in the September 23 week for the 25th straight week. The current 

week's rate is down from 1.5% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     In other data, the U.S. international trade gap narrowed in August 

to $42.4 billion, slightly smaller than the $42.6 billion gap expected 

and following a revised smaller $43.6 billion gap in July. The narrower 

August trade gap was the result of a rise in exports and a decline in 

imports. 

     BEA said they cannot quantify the impact of Hurricane Harvey, which 

hit in late-August. 

     The revised Census goods gap reported Thursday was larger than the 

advance estimate of $62.9 billion, coming in at $63.3 billion, narrower 

than the $63.8 billion gap in July. The overall BOP goods gap narrowed 

to $64.4 billion from $65.3 billion in July. 

     At the same time, the services surplus widened to $22.0 billion 

from $21.7 billion. 

     The chained goods gap was unchanged after rounding at $61.8 

billion, so the third quarter average through the first two months was 

narrower than the second quarter average of $62.4b, a small positive for 

third quarter GDP. 

     The petroleum gap widened to $4.8 billion in August from $3.0 

billion in July, while the nonpetroleum gap narrowed to $58.5 billion 

from $60.8 billion. 

     Exports were driven higher by gains in consumer goods, autos, and 

capital goods that were offset by declines in industrial supplies and 

food. 

     Imports were pulled down by declines food, industrial supplies, and 

capital goods that offset gains in autos and consumer goods. 

     The unadjusted trade gaps with Mexico, China, and Japan all widened 

in August, while the gaps narrowed with Canada and the EU. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]