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MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 22,000 To 222,000>

--October 7 week jobless claims revised up 1k to 244,000
--Lowest level of initial claims since March 31, 1973
--Continuing claims dropped 16k to 1.888m in October 7 week
By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 
fell by 22,000 to 222,000 in the October 14 employment survey week, 
well below the 240,000 level expected, and the lowest level since March 
31, 1973, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 
     Claims were down 38,000 from the level of 260,000 in the 
September 16 employment survey week, indicating that the impact from the 
hurricanes on the claims data has dissipated.
     Puerto Rico saw an increase of 1,570 initial claims, while Florida 
saw a decline of 2,773 and Texas saw a decline of 1,804, indicating the 
effects of hurricanes Irma and Harvey have dissipated, but Puerto Rico 
is continuing to see effects of hurricane Maria on claims data. 
     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 
of the underlying trend of the data, fell by 9,500 to 248,250 in the 
October 14 week, down 20,500 from the 268,750 level in the September 16 
survey week. If the number of headline claims does not change next week 
and there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the 
four-week average will fall by 11,750 as the 269,000 level in the 
September 23 week rolls out of the calculation. 
     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an decrease of 1.8%, or 
4,156, in unadjusted claims in the week. Instead, unadjusted claims fell 
by 24,500 (10.7%) to 204,788. The current week's level is far below the 
233,633 level in the comparable week a year ago. 
     The level of continuing claims fell by 16,000 to 1.888 million in 
the October 7 week, reflecting a decrease in initial claims following 
post-hurricane recovery. Continuing claims could fall as displaced 
workers could start to find work as the hurricane affected areas 
continue to improve. 
     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate dropped to 1.3% 
in the October 7 week. The current week's rate is down from 1.5% in the 
same week a year earlier. 
     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 
     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$] 

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