MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 22,000 To 222,000>

--October 7 week jobless claims revised up 1k to 244,000

--Lowest level of initial claims since March 31, 1973

--Continuing claims dropped 16k to 1.888m in October 7 week

By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 22,000 to 222,000 in the October 14 employment survey week, 

well below the 240,000 level expected, and the lowest level since March 

31, 1973, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     Claims were down 38,000 from the level of 260,000 in the 

September 16 employment survey week, indicating that the impact from the 

hurricanes on the claims data has dissipated.

     Puerto Rico saw an increase of 1,570 initial claims, while Florida 

saw a decline of 2,773 and Texas saw a decline of 1,804, indicating the 

effects of hurricanes Irma and Harvey have dissipated, but Puerto Rico 

is continuing to see effects of hurricane Maria on claims data. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, fell by 9,500 to 248,250 in the 

October 14 week, down 20,500 from the 268,750 level in the September 16 

survey week. If the number of headline claims does not change next week 

and there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the 

four-week average will fall by 11,750 as the 269,000 level in the 

September 23 week rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an decrease of 1.8%, or 

4,156, in unadjusted claims in the week. Instead, unadjusted claims fell 

by 24,500 (10.7%) to 204,788. The current week's level is far below the 

233,633 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

     The level of continuing claims fell by 16,000 to 1.888 million in 

the October 7 week, reflecting a decrease in initial claims following 

post-hurricane recovery. Continuing claims could fall as displaced 

workers could start to find work as the hurricane affected areas 

continue to improve. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate dropped to 1.3% 

in the October 7 week. The current week's rate is down from 1.5% in the 

same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]