MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 27,000 In Dec 8 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Down 3,750 To 224,750 

By Kevin Kastner and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 27,000 to 206,000 in the December 8 week, well below 

expectations for a 227,000 level, data released by the Labor Department 

Thursday showed. 

     The level of claims was revised up slightly to 233,000 in the 

December 1 week from the previously reported 231,000 level. Overall, the 

data suggest seasonal adjustment difficulties, but also some improvement 

after elevated levels since the Thanksgiving week.

--IMPORT, EXPORT PRICES PLUNGE

     Also released on Thursday, import prices were down 1.6% in November 

and posted a 0.3% decline even excluding at 12.1% drop in petroleum 

imports. 

     The large month/month decrease, which was widely expected, pulled 

the year/year rate down to a very modest 0.7% gain from 3.3% in October, 

hitting its lowest point since November 2016. 

     There were import price declines for foods and feed, industrial 

supplies outside of fuel, and capital goods. Import prices were flat for 

autos and consumer goods.

     Import prices from Canada fell 3.4%, leading the declines among all 

major trading partners. Prices from China were down 0.1%, while prices 

from Mexico were down 1.4% and prices from the EU were down 0.5%. 

     Export prices were down 0.9% in November despite a 1.8% jump in 

agricultural export prices. Excluding the agriculture gain, export 

prices were down 1.0%. 

--CLAIMS PAYBACK

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the claims data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 3,750 

to 224,750 in the December 8 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 4,750 as the 225,000 level in the November 17 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 7.3%, or 

23,258 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted a decrease 

of 18.1%, or 57,427, to 260,508. The current week's level was well below 

the 282,009 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE

     The level of continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.661 million in 

the December 1 week.

     Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims fell by 15,644 to 

1.650 million, remaining well below the 1.869 million level seen in the 

comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, fell by 2,500 to 1.666 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rose to 1.2% in 

the December 1 week from 1.1% in the prior week, but was down from 1.3% 

in the same week a year earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured 

unemployment is extremely low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]