MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 21,000 To 231,000>

--Continuing Claims Fall 64,000 To 1.870 Mln In February 24 week

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 21,000 to 231,000 in the March 3 week, a larger rebound than the 

10,000 gain expected after hitting a decades-low level in the previous 

week, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 5.1%, or 

10,080, in unadjusted claims in the week. Instead, unadjusted claims 

rose by 30,519 to 226,450, pay back for the larger-than-expected drop in 

the previous week. Even with the large increase, the current week's 

level is well below the 243,959 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--FOUR-WEEK AVERAGE REMAINS LOW 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, rise by 2,000 to 222,500 in the 

March 3 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will tick up by 500 as the 229,000 level in the February 10 week 

rolls out of the calculation. Even with these modest gains, the 

underlying level of claims remains extremely low. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS LOW SINCE NOVEMBER

     The level of continuing claims fell by 64,000 to 1.870 million in 

the February 24 week, the lowest level since November. The four-week 

moving average dipped by 14,250 to 1.907 million, also a low since 

November. 

     Unadjusted continuing claims fell by 31,735 to 2.227 million, well 

below the 2.448 million level in the comparable week a year ago.

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate returned to 1.3% 

in the February 24 week after rising to 1.4% in the previous week. The 

rate was 1.5% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]