MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rose 1,000 In July 28 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Down 3,500 To 214,500

By Kevin Kastner, Harrison Clarke, and Shikha Dave

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 1,000 to 218,000 in the July 28 week, below the 219,000 level 

expected by analysts in an MNI survey following no revision to claims in 

the previous week, data released by the Labor Department Thursday 

showed. 

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 3,500 

to 214,500 in the July 28 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would rise by 750 as the 215,000 level in the July 7 week 

rolls out of the calculation, keeping the average below its year 

ago level. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 11.2%, or 

22,607 in unadjusted claims. Unadjusted claims however, actually saw an 

decrease of 10.8%, or 21,750 to 179,538. The current week's level was 

well below the 198,776 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS, 4-WK AVERAGE DECLINE

     The level of continuing claims fell by 23,000 to 1.724 million in 

the July 21 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims fell by 

51,786 to 1.709 million, remaining below the 1.940 million level 

seen in the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, fell by 4,500 to 1.742 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in 

the July 21 week, down from the 1.4% in the same week a year earlier, 

reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is particularly low. 

     Claims were estimated for Maine only. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]