MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US March Business Inventories Flat>

--Retail Inventories Fall 0.5%, Revised Down From -0.4% Adv Estimate 

--Total Business Inventories Excluding Retail Auto Up 0.2%

--Unpublished Retail Components +0.2%, MNI Calculation Shows

By Kevin Kastner and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of business inventories in March was 

roughly unchanged, below the 0.1% gain expected by analysts and the MNI 

calculated prediction, data released by the Commerce Department Tuesday 

morning showed. 

     Retail inventories decreased 0.5%, revised down from the advance 

estimate of a 0.4% decline and the largest dip since September. Data 

from the wholesale inventory report showed a 0.3% rise in the month, 

which was down from the 0.5% gain expected in the advance report, while 

factory inventories were up 0.3%. 

     As a result of the downward adjustment to both retail and wholesale 

inventories from the advance data used for the first estimate of first 

quarter GDP, there is a chance of a downward adjustment to the business 

inventories category when the second estimate of GDP is released on May 

30.

     According to an MNI calculation, if a 1.1% decrease in motor 

vehicle inventories had been excluded, business inventories would have 

been up 0.2% in the month. The decrease in motor vehicles was revised 

down from the 1.0% decline in the advance estimate. 

     After excluding the decrease for motor vehicle inventories, the 

remaining retail categories would have posted a 0.1% decline, unrevised 

from the advance estimate. There were declines in every published 

category except a 0.3% increase in inventories of building materials and 

garden supplies. 

     According to an MNI calculation, the unpublished retail categories 

were up 0.2% following a 0.5% decrease in February, helping to offset 

the declines in the other retail categories. 

     March business sales posted a 0.5% gain, the same as in the 

previous month.

     Retail sales excluding food services rose 0.7% in March, as 

reported earlier Tuesday, while factory shipments, which are equal to 

sales in this report, rose 0.4% and wholesale sales rose 0.3%. 

     Due to the flat reading for business inventories and the 0.5% gain 

in sales in the month, the inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.34 in 

March from 1.35 in February. The ratio remains well below the 1.38 level 

seen in March 2017, as sales have continued to outpace inventory growth 

over the last year. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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