MNI DATA ANALYSIS:US Sept Housing Starts Fall To 1.127m SAAR>

--September Building Permits Down 4.5% To 1.215 Mln SAAR

By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The pace of housing starts fell by 4.7% to a 

1.127 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in September, below 

expectations for a 1.170 million pace following mixed revisions to the 

previous two months, data reported by the Commerce Department Wednesday 

morning showed. 

     Housing starts fell 9.3% in the South region, reflecting some 

hurricane impact from Harvey and Irma, though Commerce did not 

specifically address the impacts on the September data. Housing starts 

should turn upward in the coming months as homes in the impacted regions 

will need to be rebuilt. Commerce said previously that total rebuilds 

will count toward permits and starts, but that repairs of homes would 

not. 

     Housing starts of single-family homes fell by 4.6% in September 

after a 3.3% rise in the previous month. Starts of multi-family homes 

fell 5.1% after an 8.7% August decrease, based on an MNI calculation. 

     The pace of unadjusted starts stand 6.6% above its year ago level, 

a sign that home building has improved despite the recent noise. The 

NAHB index for October rose sharply when it was reported on Tuesday 

after a September dip that was prompted by concerns about supply and 

labor shortages. 

     Building permits fell 4.5% in the month, but homes permitted but 

not started rose 1.4%, so starts could see a rebound of activity in 

October if conditions are right. Single-family permits were up 2.4% 

while multi-family permits fell 16.1%. 

     Given the only modest decline in September starts and the mixed 

revisions to the previous months, the third quarter average for starts 

was roughly unchanged from the second quarter average, while permits 

were up modestly. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 ** 

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