MNI DATA: December Freeze For UK Retail Sales: CBI Survey

--December Retail Sales Volumes Balance -13 Vs +19 In November

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - UK retailers reported a marked slowdown in retail sales

volume growth in December, coming after a strong November, the CBI survey

published Tuesday showed.

     The reported sales volume balance declined 32 points to -13 in December --

its fastest rate of decline since October 2017. Consequently, the three month

average was down to +4 from an anticipated +19. 

     Retailers also expect an uneventful start to 2019 with the expected sales

volume balance for January flat. Furthermore, sales volumes were also well below

the average for the time of year, to the greatest extent since November 2011. 

     Declines were seen in sales volume figures across most sub-sectors.

Predominantly driving the fall were drops in normal goods, non-specialised

stores (i.e. department stores) and grocers. Whilst durable household goods was

markedly down at -50, it had a strong rise in November of +67. 

     A glimmer of hope came from non-store (i.e. internet and mail order) and

furniture & carpets. Year-on-year growth in internet sales volumes picked up to

a pace broadly in line with the long-run average at +48 in December. 

     The expected volume of orders placed upon suppliers was unsurprisingly low

at -18 for January. Should expectations be correct, retail sales could be in for

a dip after the latest ONS data showed a strong November reading, driven by

Black Friday. 

     ----"UNCERTAINTY" HURTING BUSINESSES 

     "Retailers report a sharp drop in sales volumes in the year to December, so

it's clear the sector continues to feel the impact from pressures on household

incomes and digital disruption. Brexit uncertainty may also be affecting

consumer sentiment and spending," said Anna Leach, CBI Head of Economic

Intelligence.

     "High street shops -- like other businesses -- are concerned about the

rising risk of a disorderly no-deal exit from the EU. Urgent action to resolve

the Brexit stalemate is needed to give the retail sector confidence to make

crucial decisions about investment," she added. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

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