MNI DATA IMPACT: Japan Q2 GDP Revised Lower On Weaker Capex

Japan's economy contracted at a greater rate than the previously estimated in Q2, as capital investment was revised lower, second preliminary data released by the Cabinet Office Tuesday showed.

The economy contracted 7.9% q/q, or an annualized 28.1%, compared with the first preliminary estimates of -7.8% q/q and an annualized -27.8%.

Elsewhere in the revised data, capital investment fell 4.7% q/q, revised down from the 1.5% fall seen in the preliminary release. The negative contribution from capital investments was revised to -0.7 percentage point from -0.2 pp.

Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan's GDP, was revised to -7.9% q/q from -8.2%, pushing overall GDP lower by a revised rounded 4.4 pp from 4.5 pp.

The contribution of net exports -- exports minus imports -- was unrevised at -3.0 percentage point.

Private-sector inventories to total domestic output contributed a revised +0.3 percentage point from 0.0 pp and the GDP contribution of public investment was unrevised at +0.1 pp.

OUTLOOK

Japan's economy is expected to rebound in Q3 from the sharp contraction in Q2, boosted by a pick-up in private consumption on the back of pent-up demand backed by the government's cash distribution.

Bank of Japan economists seet both exports and industrial production higher in July from their weakness in Q2. Private spending also recovered in July, but bank officials are worried about the outlook for the spending with lingering concerns over the spread of the virus.

The BOJ still holds its baseline scenario based on the view of the nternational Monetary Fund that Japan's economy is expected to gradually improve in H2. The average economist forecast for Q2 GDP growth is annualized at +13.26%, according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 34 economists by the Japan Center for Economic Research conducted from July 30 to August 7.