MNI DATA IMPACT: UK Sept Employment Sees First Gain Since Jan

UK Employers added a small number of jobs in September, although economists are bracing for mass employment losses when a a less-generous support scheme comes into effect next month, data released Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics showed.

Employment, as measured by RTI data supplied to HMRC, rose by 20,000 between August and September, the first rise since January. The economy has lost 673,000 jobs since March and 629,000 over the past 12 months.

Over the three months to August, employment fell by 153,000, after a downwardly-revised decline of 153,000 in the three months to July (originally reported as -12,000). The ONS has adjusted the Labour Force Survey data to correct for the under-representation of renters in a telephone survey conducted by researchers after the cessation of face-to-face interviews in light of Covid restrictions.

That pushed the LFS unemployment rate to 4.5% in the three months to August, up from 4.3% in the three months to July. The jobless rate for May to July was initially reported as 4.1%.

Hours worked continued to creep upward, reaching 27.3 in the three months to August from a revised 26.2 in the three months to July and a record-low 25.8 in April to June. Average weekly hours hovered at about 32 through 2019.

The number of people claiming Universal Credit rose by 28,100, taking the claimant rate to 7.6%, the highest since July of 1995. However, that rate could overstate the level of unemployment, as claimants may seek benefits other than JobSeekers Allowance. Claimants in August were revised downward to 39,500 from the originally-reported 73,700.

Total earnings were unchanged in the three months to August over the same period of 2019, better than the downwardly-revised 1.0% decline recorded in the three months to July. Regular earnings rose by 0.8%, extending the 0.2% rise in the previous period, with both measures exceeding expectations.Real total earnings declined by 0.8%, extending a 1.9% slump in the previous three months, while real regular earnings (excluding bonuses) rose by 0.1% after a 0.6% fall in the three months to July.

Self employed workers plunged by another 240,000, taking the self-employment rate down to 14.0% from 15.3% at the end of last year. However, statisticians noted that a large number of workers previously classified as self employed have changed their status to employed over recent months.

Vacancies rose by a record-high 144,000 in the three months to September over April-June to 488,000. However, the number of vacancies remains more than 40% below the same period of 2019. Given the effort required to re-weight the Labour Force Survey, the ONS was unable to offer experimental single month data for August.