MNI DATA IMPACT:US April Durable Orders Fall 2.1% On Aircraft>

--April Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation Flat

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - April durable goods orders data were roughly 

inline with expectations for an aircraft-led drop, with the headline 

number falling by 2.1%, compared with a slightly-smaller 2.0% decline 

expected by a Bloomberg median and MNI survey. 

     This follows a downward revision to the previous month's orders and 

may lead to downward adjustments to forecasts for first quarter 

non-residential fixed investment. 

     At the same time, durables shipments fell by 1.6%, the largest 

decline since December 2015 and unfilled orders fell by 0.1% as 

inventories rose. 

     Annual revisions released on May 16 are incorporated into the data. 

     Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released Friday: 

     - The durable goods orders decline was due primarily to a 5.9% 

decrease in transportation orders (largest since May 2018), particularly 

a 25.1% drop in nondefense aircraft orders. Boeing orders were down 

sharply in the month, foreshadowing the decline in the government data. 

     - Excluding transportation, new orders were flat in the month, 

slightly below the 0.1% gain expected in a Bloomberg survey and the 0.2% 

gain expected in an MNI survey. There were declines in computers and 

electronics products and primary metals that were offset by gains in 

electrical equipment, fabricated metals, and machinery. 

     - Nondefense capital goods new orders were down 5.0% in April, and 

were still down 0.9% excluding aircraft. Nondefense capital goods 

shipments were down 3.0% in the month, while shipments ex. aircraft were 

flat.

     - Based on the revisions to the March data, analysts could lower 

their forecasts for nonresidential fixed investment ahead of next week's 

second estimate of the first quarter GDP. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]