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--April Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation Flat
By Kevin Kastner
WASHINGTON (MNI) - April durable goods orders data were roughly
inline with expectations for an aircraft-led drop, with the headline
number falling by 2.1%, compared with a slightly-smaller 2.0% decline
expected by a Bloomberg median and MNI survey.
This follows a downward revision to the previous month's orders and
may lead to downward adjustments to forecasts for first quarter
non-residential fixed investment.
At the same time, durables shipments fell by 1.6%, the largest
decline since December 2015 and unfilled orders fell by 0.1% as
Annual revisions released on May 16 are incorporated into the data.
Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released Friday:
- The durable goods orders decline was due primarily to a 5.9%
decrease in transportation orders (largest since May 2018), particularly
a 25.1% drop in nondefense aircraft orders. Boeing orders were down
sharply in the month, foreshadowing the decline in the government data.
- Excluding transportation, new orders were flat in the month,
slightly below the 0.1% gain expected in a Bloomberg survey and the 0.2%
gain expected in an MNI survey. There were declines in computers and
electronics products and primary metals that were offset by gains in
electrical equipment, fabricated metals, and machinery.
- Nondefense capital goods new orders were down 5.0% in April, and
were still down 0.9% excluding aircraft. Nondefense capital goods
shipments were down 3.0% in the month, while shipments ex. aircraft were
- Based on the revisions to the March data, analysts could lower
their forecasts for nonresidential fixed investment ahead of next week's
second estimate of the first quarter GDP.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **