Free Trial

MNI DATA PREVIEW: German IP Seen Sharply Lower In March

MNI (London)
By Irene Prihoda
     LONDON (MNI) - German March industrial production is forecast to slump by
7.0% on a monthly basis, giving back all and more of the gains seen so far in
2020, extending the downswing seen through 2019.
     --Factory orders surged 4.8% m/m in January but fell 1.4% m/m in February
before plummeting by 7.0 m/m% in March. Overall, weak industrial orders in the
last couple of months suggest a bleak outlook for production going ahead.
     --Destatis started publishing the truck toll mileage index, an experimental
data series showing the mileage covered by trucks with four or more axles which
are subject to toll charges. The statistics office noted a strong connection
between truck mileage and industrial production in Germany. 
     --The truck toll mileage index dropped by 5.9% m/m in March which was the
largest decline since records began in 2005. A similar fall was only seen during
the financial crisis when the index dropped by 4.3% in January 2009. In the same
the month industrial production posted the lowest level on record, falling by
     --Individual country manufacturing PMI does not provide a more upbeat
picture and the eurozone's overall index dropped to the lowest level since
March, with only a surge in Supplier Delivery times and a rise in stocks of
purchases held preventing further falls. Similarly, the Ifo business climate
index for the industrial sector slipped to the lowest level since the financial
crisis with expectations extremely pessimistic.
     --According to the VDA, car production fell by 37% in March compared to
March 2019, while new passenger car registrations dropped by 38% in March and
plunged by 61% in April. New orders in the car sector slumped by 70% in April
and the VDA noted that car production almost came to a halt (-97%), suggesting
another record decline of production in April.
     --Due to the Covid-related shutdowns, 77% of companies in the industrial
sector are in crisis mode in April according to the IG Metall. The union further
notes that a rebound in the industrial sector is heavily depended on a recovery
of the automobile industry.
     --German industrial production data for March is set for release May 7 at
--MNI London Bureau; +44 0203 865 3814; email:
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.