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May 08, 2018 11:51 GMT
MNI DATA SURVEY: UK IoP, Mfg, Constr, Trade and BOE MPC Survey
MNI (London)
By Jai Lakhani
LONDON (MNI) - The UK ONS preliminary estimates for the month of March has
industrial production at 0.1% m/m, -0.2% m/m for manufacturing and a dismal
-2.3% m/m for construction output. It would appear that analysts trust these
numbers with the MNI median matching the ONS numbers as well as a y/y growth in
industrial production, manufacturing and construction of 3%, 2.9% and -5.6%
respectively.
Industrial Industrial Manufacturing Manufacturing
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Production Production Output Output
% m/m % oya % m/m % oya
Date Out 10-May 10-May 10-May 10-May
Median 0.1 3.0 -0.2 2.9
Forecast High 0.4 3.3 0.3 3.3
Forecast Low -0.3 2.6 -0.4 2.6
Standard Deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Count 14 9 11 9
Prior 0.1 2.2 -0.2 2.5
Barclays 0.2 3.1 -0.2 2.9
Berenberg 0.2 N/A N/A N/A
Capital Economics 0.3 3.2 0.0 3.0
Credit Suisse 0.1 N/A N/A N/A
Investec 0.1 3.0 -0.1 2.9
JP Morgan 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.9
Lloyds TSB -0.3 2.6 0.0 3.0
Natixis -0.2 2.7 -0.4 2.6
Nomura 0.2 3.1 -0.2 2.8
Oxford Economics 0.4 3.3 0.3 3.3
Pantheon 0.1 N/A N/A N/A
Scotia 0.1 N/A -0.2 N/A
Societe Generale 0.1 3.0 -0.2 2.8
UniCredit 0.2 N/A -0.2 N/A
The trade balance has analyst anticipating a widening of the total trade
balance from stg -1 bn to stg -2 in March. The visible trade balance is also
expected to widen from stg -10.2 bn previously to stg -11.1 bn in March.
Moving to arguably the most widely anticipated data of the week, the Bank
of England MPC Policy decision. Except for one estimate, analysts appear to be
in full agreement that the the bank rate will remain unchanged at 0.5% in the
backdrop of very disappointing economic data.
BOE
---------------------------------------
MPC Policy Decision
Bank Rate %
Date Out 10-May
Median 0.5
Forecast High 0.8
Forecast Low 0.5
Standard Deviation 0.1
Count 17
Prior 0.5
Bayern 0.5
Barclays 0.5
Berenberg 0.5
Capital Economics 0.5
Credit Suisse 0.5
Investec 0.5
JP Morgan 0.5
LBBW 0.5
Lloyds TSB 0.5
Natixis 0.5
Nomura 0.5
Nordea 0.75
Oxford Economics 0.5
Pantheon 0.5
Scotia 0.5
Societe Generale 0.5
UniCredit 0.5
Regarding Gilt Purchases and corporate bond purchases, analysts unanimously
agreed that both would remain unchanged from the March meeting at stg435 bn and
stg10 bn respectively. The composition of the rate hike vote suggests a 7-2 vote
in favour of keeping the bank rate unchanged with only one analyst estimate
arguing a unanimous vote in favour of keeping the bank rate unchanged.
BOE BOE BOE BOE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MPC Policy MPC Policy MPC Policy MPC Policy
Decision Decision Decision Decision
Gilt Purch Stg Corp Bond Purch
bln Stg bln Unch. Vote Hike Vote
Date Out 10-May 10-May 10-May 10-May
Median 435.0 10.0 7.0 2.0
Forecast High 435.0 10.0 9.0 2.0
Forecast Low 435.0 10.0 7.0 0.0
Standard
Deviation 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8
Count 8 5 6 6
Prior 435.0 10.0 7.0 2.0
Barclays 435.0 10.0 7.0 2.0
Berenberg 435.0 10.0 N/A N/A
Investec 435.0 10.0 7.0 2.0
JP Morgan N/A N/A 9.0 0.0
LBBW 435.0 N/A N/A N/A
Natixis 435.0 N/A N/A N/A
Nomura 435.0 N/A 7.0 2.0
Nordea N/A N/A N/A N/A
Oxford
Economics 435.0 10.0 N/A N/A
Pantheon N/A N/A 7.0 2.0
Scotia N/A N/A N/A N/A
Societe
Generale 435.0 10.0 N/A N/A
UniCredit N/A N/A 7.0 2.0
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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