MNI DATA: UK Consumer Confidence Joint-Lowest Since Dec: GfK

--UK October GfK Consumer Confidence Index -10 Vs -9 September

By Jamie Satchi

     LONDON (MNI) - UK consumer confidence deteriorated for a second month in a

row in October, with GfK's long-running Consumer Confidence Index down a point

to -10, data published Wednesday showed.

     The slide in October's GfK Consumer Confidence Index was driven by

deteriorations across three of the five sub-components, including households'

assessment of their personal finances and their perceptions of economic

prosperity.

     October's result left the headline index at its joint-lowest level in 10

months, meaning over the past two months it has given back all of the 3-point

gain notched in August which had taken the index to its joint-highest level

since May 2017.

     The GfK data follows Monday's monthly consumer sentiment release published

by the European Commission, which showed UK confidence falling 1.8 points to

-5.8 - the lowest since June.

     The survey procured by the European Commission, out a day in advance of the

GfK survey, is generally considered across markets as the seasonally-adjusted

version of the GfK itself.

     --THE BREXIT EFFECT

     The headline index now sits below its 12-month average -9.0, and the

post-Brexit average of -8. In contrast, in the year to the Brexit vote the index

averaged +2.

     Thus households have remained pessimistic throughout the entirety of the

Brexit negotiation period and, as we enter the final phase of negotiations, it

appears confidence is deteriorating further.

     "The prospect of a no-deal/hard-deal Brexit must surely be weighing heavily

on people's minds, injecting a mood of despondency as to how people view their

future personal finances and the longer-term economic outlook for the UK," said

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK.

     The Personal Financial Situation Over Next 12 Months index fell by a point

to +4 in October, while households' assessment of the general economic

situation, also over the next 12 months, declined a further point to -28.

     --CONSUMPTION MUTED

     The Major Purchase Index, which asks households how willing they are to

spend on big ticket items, also lost ground in October, falling two points to +4

on the eve of the typically busy festive spending period.

     "This will concern retailers in the run-up to Black Friday, Cyber Monday

and the key Christmas trading period. Consumers behave like financial markets -

when confidence is lacking, markets stutter and tumble," Staton said.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44208-865-3829; email: Jason.Webb@marketnews.com

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