MNI DATA: UK Pay Awards Ease; Expect New Year Pickup: XpertHR

--UK September-November Pay Median Pay Deals 2.0% Vs 2.3% Aug-Oct 

By Jamie Satchi

     LONDON (MNI) - UK median pay deals receded further in the three months to

November, easing back to 2.0%, precisely the level they were at a year ago, a

survey by XpertHR found. 

     Year-end typically sees relatively few pay awards and the median figure was

just below a handful of higher pay awards, with the month's sample being

reported as smaller than normal. 

     So, just a few more higher awards would have tipped the overall median

balance back to its 2018 norm-level. 

     Thus, the November dip is seen as just temporary. The New Year tends to

mark the start of a wave of pay settlements, and pay award growth is indeed seen

heading back toward to the 2.5% mark, according to XpertHR.  

     "Pay bargaining activity always slows down towards the end of the year, so

our latest figures are based on a smaller sample than normal," said Sheila

Attwood, XpertHR pay and benefits editor. 

     "Our attention now turns to January, when around a quarter of pay deals are

settled - early indications suggest that XpertHR's headline measure of pay

awards will return close to 2.5% at this time." 

     The XpertHR data softening in October and now November conflicts that

published by the Office for National Statistics. 

     Headline average weekly earnings and regular earnings both came in at 3.3%

3m y/y in October - both the highest since the crisis.

     Much of the Bank of England's conviction to hike interest rates earlier

this year was based on the belief that wage pressures were intensifying and that

they were expected to hold up heading into 2019.  

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$E$$$]