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Bearish Cycle Still In Play

10 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
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Analysis Pdf
DOLLAR-SING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Sgd1.3647
*RES 4: Sgd1.3752 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: Sgd1.3723 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: Sgd1.3720 - High July 17 
*RES 1: Sgd1.3647 - High Aug 9
*PRICE: Sgd1.3633 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Sgd1.3614 - Low Aug 9 
*SUP 2: Sgd1.3585 - Low Aug 7 
*SUP 3: Sgd1.3549 - Low Aug 4 
*SUP 4: Sgd1.3536 - 2017 Low July 27
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2017 lows in past weeks has seen the
pair correct back to the 21-DMA. Bulls need a close above Sgd1.3643 to confirm a
break of the 21-DMA and a shift in focus to Sgd1.3720-87 where the 55-DMA is
situated. While the 21-DMA caps bears retain an advantage but now need a close
below Sgd1.3585 to ease pressure on the 21-DMA and retain focus on fresh 2017
lows and tests of the 200-WMA (Sgd1.3450).
DOLLAR-WON TECHS: 100-DMA Support Now Key
*RES 4: Krw1147.1 - Low July 4 now resistance
*RES 3: Krw1146.8 - 200-DMA
*RES 2: Krw1140.2 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Krw1139.8 - High July 13
*PRICE: Krw1135.2 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Krw1129.3 - 100-DMA
*SUP 2: Krw1123.0 - Low Aug 3
*SUP 3: Krw1114.3 - High July 27 now support
*SUP 4: Krw1110.5 - 2017 Low Mar 28
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 55 (Krw1130.5) and 100-DMAs came to an end with
an aggressive rally that sees immediate focus on Krw1139.8 and overall focus on
Krw1146.8-1147.1. Overall bulls need a close above Krw1147.1 to confirm a break
of the 200-DMA and confirm focus on tests of July highs (Krw1157.8). Bears now
look for a close below the 100-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below Krw1123.0
to shift focus back to 2017 lows.
DOLLAR-MYR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Myr4.3087
*RES 4: Myr4.3270 - High June 28 
*RES 3: Myr4.3263 - 100-DMA 
*RES 2: Myr4.3087 - High July 10 
*RES 1: Myr4.2982 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Myr4.2850 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: Myr4.2839 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: Myr4.2829 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: Myr4.2720 - Low July 27 
*SUP 4: Myr4.2664 - Low July 19
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the Myr4.3087 resistance is less than ideal for
bulls who look for a close above this level to shift immediate focus to
Myr4.3263-3270 where the 100-DMA is situated. Layers of support remain with
bears now needing a close below the 55-DMA to see pressure return to
Myr4.2664-2720. Overall below Myr4.2664 is needed to confirm focus on 2017 lows.
DOLLAR-CNH TECHS: Bears Focused On 100-WMA
*RES 4: Cnh6.7392 - 21-DMA 
*RES 3: Cnh6.7377 - High July 31 
*RES 2: Cnh6.7154 - Low Aug 1 now resistance 
*RES 1: Cnh6.7010 - Low Aug 8 now resistance
*PRICE: Cnh6.6919 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Cnh6.6895 - 2017 Low Aug 9 
*SUP 2: Cnh6.6879 - Low Oct 5 
*SUP 3: Cnh6.6775 - 100-WMA 
*SUP 4: Cnh6.6413 - Monthly Low Sept 16
*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed focus on tests of the 100-WMA with fresh 2017 &
10mth lows that leave the pair looking heavy. The Bollinger base (Cnh6.6950) is
the key concern for bears. Bulls need a close above Cnh6.7154 to ease immediate
bearish pressure and above Cnh6.7483 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and a
shift in focus back to Cnh6.7725-7895 where the 55-DMA (Cnh6.7765) is situated.
DOLLAR-PHP TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: Php50.941 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: Php50.840 - High July 25 
*RES 2: Php50.730 - High July 26 
*RES 1: Php50.680 - High Aug 9
*PRICE: Php50.575 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Php50.550 - Low Aug 9 
*SUP 2: Php50.485 - High Aug 2 now support 
*SUP 3: Php50.250 - Low Aug 7 
*SUP 4: Php50.182 - Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip below the 55-DMA (Php50.232) has resulted
in a close above the 21-DMA (Php50.562) but the lack of follow through is a
concern for bulls. The Php50.485-550 support region is now key. Bears need a
close below Php50.485 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to
Php50.103-250 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bulls now need a close above
Php50.680 to confirm a bullish bias targeting 2017 highs.
DOLLAR-THB TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: Thb33.70 - High July 20 
*RES 3: Thb33.53 - High July 26 
*RES 2: Thb33.42 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: Thb33.41 - High July 27
*PRICE: Thb33.23 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Thb33.19 - 2017 Low Aug 9 
*SUP 2: Thb33.13 - Low May 5 2015 
*SUP 3: Thb33.05 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: Thb32.98 - Monthly Low May 1 2015
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from O/S remain the key concern
for bears which makes hesitation around recent 2017 lows a concern. In saying
that, bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above
Thb33.53 to hint at a correction back to Thb33.78-88 where the 55-DMA is
located. Bears need a close below Thb33.13 to reconfirm the bearish bias and
initially target May 2015 monthly lows.
DOLLAR-IDR TECHS: Idr13295 & Idr13348 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: Idr13410 - High July 7 & 10 
*RES 3: Idr13380 - Low July 11 now resistance 
*RES 2: Idr13348 - High July 13 
*RES 1: Idr13339 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: Idr13323 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Idr13298 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: Idr13295 - Low July 19 
*SUP 3: Idr13270 - Low Apr 26 
*SUP 4: Idr13245 - 2017 Low Apr 13
*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading within a Idr13270-13348 range continues with bulls
needing a close above Idr13348 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift focus
back to Idr13380-13415. Bears continue to look for a close below Idr13295 to
gain traction below key DMAs and shift focus back to Idr13245-13270 where 2017
and monthly lows are located. Narrowing Bollinger bands are suggestive of a
break out in the near future.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: