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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 14 Oct

Finland, Greece, Germany, Spain and France look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
GlobalHomepageEurozoneGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - EurozoneMarketsStoryRegion
MNI (LONDON)
  • Finland, Greece, Germany, Spain and France look to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We also think that there is a chance of a Slovakian syndication in the week.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E24.9bln, down from E27.3bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees redemptions totalling E41.8bln: E22.5bln from a German Bobl, E14.6bln from an Italian CCTeu, USD2.6bln of a formerly 3-year Portugal USD bond and USD2.0bln of a formerly 5-year ESM USD bond.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E2.9bln, of which E1.0bln are Portuguese, E0.8bln Italian, E0.5bln German, E0.3bln Irish and E0.2bln Slovakian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E19.8bln, down from positive E22.2bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ241014.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • Finland will look to kick off auctions for the week on Tuesday, selling up to a combined E1.5bln of the on-the-run 6/10-year RFGBs: the 2.50% Apr-30 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000577952) and the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104).
  • On Wednesday, Greece will look to hold a GGB auction. Details will be announced the preceding day.
  • Also on Wednesday, Germany will look to hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004).
  • On Thursday, Spain will look to hold an auction to sell the on-the-run 7-year 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43), the on-the-run 10-year 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N35), and the 2.70% Oct-48 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012B47). The size of the auction will be confirmed on Monday. We think there is scope for a slightly larger auction than that seen at the beginning of the month when a E4-5bln range was sold. We look for a return to either a E5-6bln range or a E4.5-5.5bln range.
  • Also on Thursday, France will look to hold a MT OAT auction to sell a combined E10-12bln of the on-the-run 2.50% Sep-27 OAT (ISIN: FR001400NBC6), the 0.75% May-28 OAT (ISIN: FR0013286192), the 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (ISIN: FR001400HI98) and the on-the-run 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68).
  • France will return to the market later on Thursday to hold an IL OATs auction to sell a combined E1.75-2.50bln of the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
  • We pencil in a Slovakian syndication for the upcoming week. We think that the 5/7/15/30-year areas maturity looks most attractive.
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MNI (LONDON)
  • Finland, Greece, Germany, Spain and France look to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We also think that there is a chance of a Slovakian syndication in the week.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E24.9bln, down from E27.3bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees redemptions totalling E41.8bln: E22.5bln from a German Bobl, E14.6bln from an Italian CCTeu, USD2.6bln of a formerly 3-year Portugal USD bond and USD2.0bln of a formerly 5-year ESM USD bond.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E2.9bln, of which E1.0bln are Portuguese, E0.8bln Italian, E0.5bln German, E0.3bln Irish and E0.2bln Slovakian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E19.8bln, down from positive E22.2bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ241014.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • Finland will look to kick off auctions for the week on Tuesday, selling up to a combined E1.5bln of the on-the-run 6/10-year RFGBs: the 2.50% Apr-30 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000577952) and the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104).
  • On Wednesday, Greece will look to hold a GGB auction. Details will be announced the preceding day.
  • Also on Wednesday, Germany will look to hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004).
  • On Thursday, Spain will look to hold an auction to sell the on-the-run 7-year 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43), the on-the-run 10-year 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N35), and the 2.70% Oct-48 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012B47). The size of the auction will be confirmed on Monday. We think there is scope for a slightly larger auction than that seen at the beginning of the month when a E4-5bln range was sold. We look for a return to either a E5-6bln range or a E4.5-5.5bln range.
  • Also on Thursday, France will look to hold a MT OAT auction to sell a combined E10-12bln of the on-the-run 2.50% Sep-27 OAT (ISIN: FR001400NBC6), the 0.75% May-28 OAT (ISIN: FR0013286192), the 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (ISIN: FR001400HI98) and the on-the-run 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68).
  • France will return to the market later on Thursday to hold an IL OATs auction to sell a combined E1.75-2.50bln of the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
  • We pencil in a Slovakian syndication for the upcoming week. We think that the 5/7/15/30-year areas maturity looks most attractive.