MNI European Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Shooting Star Candle Close The Early Warning Here

*RES 4: 163.06 Hourly base Nov 9

*RES 3: 162.88 Hourly recovery high Nov 9 

*RES 2: 162.73 Nov 9 close, now resistance

*RES 1: 162.56 Nov 10 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.19                                    

*SUP 1: 162.13/19 Nov 10 low, 50% of 160.76-163.63

*SUP 2: 161.85/86 Hourly base Oct 27, 61.8% of 160.76-163.63

*SUP 3: 161.44 76.4% Fibo of 160.76-163.63

*SUP 4: 161.18 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached 163.63 just above the 61.8% Fibo retrace at 163.61

last Wednesday. Near term studies became extremely overbought as a result,

basically giving no scope to move higher than this at the time, especially given

the 'shooting star' candle close on the daily chart. With Thursday's loss of

162.95-162.83, this has opened the way for a deeper correction, 162.19-162.13

now protecting 161.85. Nearest resistance 162.56-162.73.

     BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Appearance Of A Bearish 'Shooting Star' Foils Rally

*RES 4: 132.06 Nov 8 high

*RES 3: 131.97 Congestion area Nov 7-Nov 9

*RES 2: 131.88 Hourly high Nov 9

*RES 1: 131.78 Nov 10 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.68 

*SUP 1: 131.64 Nov 2 low

*SUP 2: 131.57 Hourly base Oct 27, 50% of 131.09-132.06

*SUP 3: 131.46 61.8% Fibo of 131.09-132.06

*SUP 4: 131.32 76.4% Fibo of 131.09-132.06

*COMMENTARY* A high of 132.06 before correcting lower on the back of some

overbought hourly conditions. Some concern here, given the appearance of a

potentially bearish 'shooting star' candle close last Wednesday. Initial support

from the Oct 27 high at 131.85 has been lost, any lower and the potential for a

further 131.64-131.46 fall appears. The latter then the next real support of

note. Resistance meanwhile falls to 131.78-131.88.

SCHATZ TECHS: Z17) Rally Still Faltering At 112.310

*RES 4: 112.410 Equality rise from 112.250

*RES 3: 112.390 0.1% volatility band

*RES 2: 112.350 38.2% Fibo of 113.310-111.760

*RES 1: 112.310 Oct 30, Nov 6, 7 & 8 highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.270 

*SUP 1: 112.250 Nov 1, Nov 2 lows

*SUP 2: 112.220 Oct 4 high, now support

*SUP 3: 112.190 Hourly basing area Oct 18-19

*SUP 4: 112.150 Oct 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The 112.310 area has become a problem for the recent rally, being

halted here on several occasions now. That said, will need to lose 112.250

support, before there is scope to see some correction of gains from the 112.150

low of Oct 25. This would allow a gradual 112.220-112.190 fall next. A

successful challenge and break of that 112.310 level will target 112.350 next.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 'Gravestone Doji' Candle Close Predicts Fall

*RES 4: 125.30 Hourly recovery high Nov 9

*RES 3: 125.04 Nov 9 low, hourly resistance

*RES 2: 124.92 Nov 10 high

*RES 1: 124.72 Hourly resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.31 

*SUP 1: 124.28 Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: 124.20 Hourly basing area Oct 30-31, 61.8% Fibo

*SUP 3: 123.81/84 76.4% Fibo of 123.17-125.87, Nov 1 low

*SUP 4: 123.66 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached 125.87 last Wednesday, just shy of a test to the next

resistance area of note at 125.97. This a 50% Fibo retrace level as well as the

upper 1% volatility band at the time. As a result, we have seen a pullback which

has lost 124.95 support. Loss here introduces further caution, especially given

the 'Gravestone Doji' candle close on the daily chart Wednesday. Next supports

now 124.20-123.81. Resistance 124.72-124.92.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.400 Proving Tough To Break

*RES 4: 99.500 61.8% Fibo of 99.620-99.300

*RES 3: 99.460 Sep 12 low, 50% Fibo of 99.620-99.300

*RES 2: 99.420 38.2% Fibo of 99.620-99.300

*RES 1: 99.400 Nov 3, Nov 6, Nov 9, Nov 10 highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.380                                  

*SUP 1: 99.360 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 99.330 Hourly basing area Oct

*SUP 4: 99.320 Oct 25-26 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has continued the correction of the 99.620-99.300 fall seen

throughout September this year. Got a little stuck around the 99.400 area this

month and while this continues there is scope to see a a pullback. In this

respect, 99.360-99.350 provides initial support. Only below the latter will

concern at present and allow a further 99.330-99.320 fall. Directly above 99.400

and next targets are between 99.420-99.460.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 100.330

*RES 4: 100.375 Daily bull channel top

*RES 3: 100.360 Oct 6 high

*RES 2: 100.330 Oct 19 high

*RES 1: 100.325 Repeated daily highs Sep, Oct & Nov 2107

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.320 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: 100.310 Oct 26 low

*SUP 3: 100.305 Repeated daily lows throughout October

*SUP 4: 100.300 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY* The dip below the 21 (100.319) & 55 (100.314) DMAs in previous

weeks lacked follow through with the contract recovering to repeatedly retest

2017 highs. Bulls need a close above 100.330 to target 100.360/375. Bears look

for a close below 100.310 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and ease bullish

pressure. Below 100.300 is needed to confirm a break of the 100-DMA, end bullish

hopes and shift focus back to 100.275-285.

     US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Decline Edges Towards A Test Of key 124-155

Support

*RES 4: 125-195 38.2% Fibo of 127-285/124-060

*RES 3: 125-150/160 Nov 7, Oct 19 highs

*RES 2: 125-080 Series hourly highs Nov 9

*RES 1: 125-015 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 124-220 @2335GMT

*SUP 1: 124-200 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 124-155 Hourly basing area Oct 25-26

*SUP 3: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 4: 123-255 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

125-135. A high of 125-150 last week and failed to challenge resistance from

between the higher 125-160/125-195 area. The subsequent fall below 125-005 was

the immediate concern, a low of 124-200 so far, with the downside still

protected by the lower 124-155 level. In the meantime, look to 125-015/125-080

for resistance.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Now On 3572.0-3568.0 Support

*RES 4: 3636.0 Nov 8 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 3630.0 Hourly high Nov 9

*RES 2: 3615.0 Nov 10 high

*RES 1: 3606.0 Hourly resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3589.0  

*SUP 1: 3582.0 Nov 9 low

*SUP 2: 3568.0 Oct 25 low

*SUP 3: 3532.0 50% Fibo of 3361.0-3703.0

*SUP 4: 3493.0 Sep 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Continues to give back gains following the Nov 1 peak at 3703.0. A

low of 3582.0 so far but attention now shifts to the lower 3572.0-3568.0 region.

A loss of the latter would swing the bias back to the downside and focus on a

deeper correction of the rally from the Aug 29 base at 3361.0. In the meantime,

resistance falls to 3606.0-3615.0 and will need back above the latter before any

near term respite will be forthcoming.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]