MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

8 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) 162.50-63 Support Region Remains Key

*RES 4: 164.43 Low June 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 164.13 Low June 16 now resistance

*RES 2: 163.51 High Aug 4

*RES 1: 163.26 Hourly support Aug 4 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.26

*SUP 1: 163.04 Hourly support Aug 7

*SUP 2: 162.84 Low Aug 7

*SUP 3: 162.63 Low Aug 2

*SUP 4: 162.50 High July 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls are struggling to gain traction above 55 (163.14) & 100

(163.17) DMAs with dips less than ideal. The 162.50-63 support region remains

key. Bears need a close below 162.50 to shift focus back to 161.02-162.07 where

the daily bull channel base and 21-DMA (162.03) are noted. The 163.51 resistance

is key with bulls needing a close above to retain initial focus on 164.13-43.

The Bollinger top 163.51 is the key concern for bulls.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) 132.23 & 132.48 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 132.98 Falling daily TL 

*RES 3: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 2: 132.85 High June 26 

*RES 1: 132.48 Low June 22 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.42

*SUP 1: 132.30 Hourly support Aug 7

*SUP 2: 132.23 Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support

*SUP 3: 132.09 Hourly support July 28

*SUP 4: 132.01 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: U17 continues to flirt with the 100-DMA (132.41) with bulls needing

a close above the key 132.48 resistance to confirm breaks of 55 (132.34) &

100-DMAs, shifting focus to 132.85-98. O/B studies and the Bollinger top

(132.55) remain concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears need a close below

132.23 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 131-82-94 where the

21-DMA and bull channel base are located.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Supported On Dips

*RES 4: 112.150 55-WMA 

*RES 3: 112.140 21-WMA 

*RES 2: 112.130 High Aug1 

*RES 1: 112.110 High Aug 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.090

*SUP 1: 112.055 Low Aug 7 

*SUP 2: 112.050 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 112.040 Daily bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 112.030 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-WMA is less than ideal for bulls with

daily studies at O/B levels & the Bollinger top (112.150) limiting follow

through. In saying that, layers of support 112.010-055 remain key. Bears need a

close below 112.010 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift immediate

focus to 111.950-970. Bulls now need a close above 112.110 to gain breathing

room and above the 55-WMA to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 112.180-230.

GILT TECHS: (U17) 127.24-35 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 3: 127.35 Low June 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 127.28 Low June 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 127.24 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.10

*SUP 1: 126.50 Hourly support Aug 3 

*SUP 2: 126.21 Hourly resistance Aug 2 now support 

*SUP 3: 126.04 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 125.83 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to oscillate around the 55 (126.91) & 100

(126.88) DMAs with bulls taking comfort in the bounce from Monday's low. Bears

look for a close below 126.50 to ease bullish pressure and below 126.21 to shift

focus back to 125.62-126.04. The 127.35 resistance remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above 127.35 to shift focus to 128.68-129.19 where June highs are

located.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Focus Back On 99.650-690

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.678 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.650 High June 21

*RES 1: 99.635 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.630

*SUP 1: 99.600 Low Aug 4

*SUP 2: 99.588 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.572 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.560 Low July 20, Low Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: The bullish close adds to confidence with focus back on layers of

resistance 99.650-690 where Bollinger tops and 2017 highs are situated. The

daily Bollinger band top is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Layers of support are accumulating with bears needing a close

below 99.600 to gain breathing room and below 99.560 to shift initial focus to

99.540-542.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below Channel Base

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.305 - 2017 High June 14 & 22 

*RES 1: 100.300 - High July 25, High Aug 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.285 - Low July 25 - 28

*SUP 2: 100.278 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.277 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 100.257 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite O/B daily studies correcting, bears failed to manage a

break of 100.285. Bears need a close below 100.285 to ease bullish pressure and

below the daily bull channel base to shift focus back to 100.244-257. While

100.285 supports bulls retain the upper hand and focus on a break of 100.305

needed to target the 100.330-360 region. The Bollinger top (100.310) remains the

key concerns for bulls as studies correct back to neutral levels.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 126-290 - High June 26 

*RES 3: 126-170 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 126-160 - Low June 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: 126-090 - Hourly support Aug 4 now resistance

*PRICE: 126-050 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-290 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support, 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 125-160 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 125-150 - Low July 25

*SUP 4: 125-070 - High July 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA and support emerging on dips below

the 55-DMA (126-020) are concerns for bears who need a close below the 21-DMA to

add weight to their case for a correction with below the 100-DMA (125-160) to

shift focus back to 124-110/250. The 126-090/160 resistance region is now key.

Bulls look for a close above 126-090 to gain breathing room and above 126-160 to

shift focus to 126-290/127-080.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 3: 2.321 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: 2.314 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: 2.289 - High Aug 4

*PRICE: 2.258 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.247 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.237 - Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.218 - Low Aug 3 

*SUP 4: 2.177 - High June 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rally Friday provided bulls breathing room but a close above

the 200-DMA is needed to confirm a return in focus to 2.237-396 where the daily

bear channel top (2.340) is noted. The 2.218-2.247 support region is now key.

Bears need a close below 2.237 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below 2.218

to reconfirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. The Bollinger base (2.212) is the key

concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Back On Key Resistance Layers 

*RES 4: 3539.48 High July 13 

*RES 3: 3529.99 High July 20 

*RES 2: 3522.57 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 3521.76 Daily Bear channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3505.80

*SUP 1: 3497.21 Low Aug 7 

*SUP 2: 3490.49 High Aug 1 now support 

*SUP 3: 3472.05 Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support 

*SUP 4: 3454.06 Hourly support Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the range base and last week's low has resulted

in focus back on the 3521.76-3555.37 resistance region. Bulls look for a close

above 3555.37 to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 3615.06 with

overall focus on 2017 highs. Layers of support remain with bears still needing a

close below 3490.49 to ease bullish pressure and below 3472.06 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (3485.83) & shift focus back to 3431.19-3438.15.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]