MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

11 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Above 164.79 Targets 165.44-55

*RES 4: 165.44 High June 26

*RES 3: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance

*RES 2: 164.43 Low June 19 now resistance

*RES 1: 164.30 High June 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 164.24

*SUP 1: 163.91 Hourly support Aug 10

*SUP 2: 163.51 High Aug 4 now support

*SUP 3: 163.25 Low Aug 9

*SUP 4: 163.18 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand with the close above 163.51 that now

sees initial focus on 164.43-79 and bulls needing a close above 164.79 to

confirm focus on 165.44-55 where June highs are situated. Layers of support are

building with bears now needing a close below 163.91 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and shift focus back to 163.18-51. Below the 55-DMA is needed to

initially target 162.40-63.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) 132.35-50 Support Key

*RES 4: 132.96 Falling daily TL 

*RES 3: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 2: 132.85 High June 26 

*RES 1: 132.71 High Aug 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.69

*SUP 1: 132.60 Hourly support Aug 10

*SUP 2: 132.50 Hourly support Aug 9

*SUP 3: 132.46 High Aug 8 now support

*SUP 4: 132.35 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence received a boost following Wednesday's rally and

close above 132.48 that sees bulls focused on 132.85-98. O/B daily studies and

the Bollinger top (132.74) remain concerns for bulls. Initial support is noted

at 132.60 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. 132.35-50

supports remain key with bears needing a close below to shift initial focus back

to 132.09-23.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Bulls Dominate While 112.100 Supports

*RES 4: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 3: 112.180 High June 14 

*RES 2: 112.160 55-WMA 

*RES 1: 112.140 21-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.140

*SUP 1: 112.130 High Aug 1 

*SUP 2: 112.100 Hourly support Aug 9 

*SUP 3: 112.070 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 112.055 112.055 Low Aug 7

*COMMENTARY: Layers of support confirmed significance with the contract bouncing

to pressure the 112.140 resistance. The close above 112.130 to adds support to

the bullish case with above the 55-WMA to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting

112.180-230. The 112.100 support is now key with bears needing a close below to

ease bullish pressure and return focus to 112.020-070 where key DMAs and bull

channel base are situated.

GILT TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 127.56

*RES 4: 129.19 Monthly High June 14 

*RES 3: 129.01 High June 15 

*RES 2: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 1: 127.86 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.70

*SUP 1: 127.56 High Aug 9 now support 

*SUP 2: 127.06 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 3: 126.76 Hourly resistance Aug 7 now support 

*SUP 4: 126.50 Hourly support Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: The close above 127.35 reconfirmed the bullish bias and sees bulls

focused on 128.68-129.19 where June highs are located. The Bollinger top

(127.61) remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Initial support is noted at 127.56 with bears needing a close below to

ease bullish pressure and below 126.50 to shift focus back to 125.62-99 where

the bull channel base is noted.

SHORT-STELING TECHS: (Z17) 99.620 & 99.650 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.678 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.650 High June 21, Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.640 High Aug 7

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.640

*SUP 1: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*SUP 2: 99.600 Low Aug 4

*SUP 3: 99.588 55-DMA, 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.586 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 99.650 is less than ideal for bulls who look

for a close above to add support to their case for a test of 99.690 2017 highs.

Initial support is now noted at 99.620 with bears needing a close below to gain

breathing room and below 99.600 to shift focus to key DMAs 99.586-588. The

Bollinger top (99.50) remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Above 100.305 Targets 100.330-360

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.307 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2017 High June 14 & 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows July & Aug

*SUP 2: 100.281 - 55-DMA, Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 100.268 - Bollinger band top

*COMMENTARY: The support at 100.285 has now provided the base for a rally and

bullish close pressuring 2017 highs. Bulls continue to look for a close above

100.305 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially target 100.330-360 last seen

in Oct. Layers of support remain 100.275-285 with bears needing a close below

100.275 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and break of DMAs & the bull

channel base with focus shifting to the 100-DMA (100.260).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 126-140

*RES 4: 127-080 - Monthly High June 14 

*RES 3: 127-070 - 200-WMA 

*RES 2: 127-000 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 126-290 - High June 26

*PRICE: 126-230 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-140 - Hourly support Aug 10

*SUP 2: 126-050 - Low Aug 9

*SUP 3: 126-030 - 21-DMA, 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 125-290 - Low Aug 8

*COMMENTARY: Bulls made up for a lack of follow through Wednesday with a bounce

from the 126-050 support that sees bullish focus now on layers of resistance

126-290/127-080 where monthly highs and key WMAs are situated. The Bollinger top

(126-200) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

Above 127-080 is needed to target the 100-WMA (128-000). Bears no need a close

below 126-140 to ease immediate bullish pressure.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Focused On 2017 Lows

*RES 4: 2.267 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: 2.258 - High Aug 9

*RES 2: 2.234 - Hourly resistance Aug 10

*RES 1: 2.210 - Hourly support Aug 10 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.201 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.160 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The 2.258 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the yield

capped ahead before heading sharply lower. The close below 2.212 reconfirms

focus on tests of 2017 lows with a close below needed to target 1.991-2.205

where the 100-WMA is noted. Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing

a close above 2.234 to gain breathing room and above 2.258 to shift focus back

to 2.267-289 where key DMAs are noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Shifts To 3371.42-3407.33 

*RES 4: 3490.49 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: 3483.92 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 3474.71 Hourly resistance July 9 

*RES 1: 3456.01 Hourly resistance July 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3433.54

*SUP 1: 3424.89 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 2: 3407.33 Monthly Low Apr 19 

*RES 3: 3390.49 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 4: 3374.71 Hourly resistance July 9

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from the most recent failure around the 55-DMA

(3514.95) has resulted in fresh 4mth lows with the break of 3431.19 seeing

bearish focus shift to 3371.42-3407.33 where the 200-DMA (3379.68), monthly lows

and the bear channel base (3375.09) are situated. Bulls now need a close above

3474.71 to ease bearish pressure and above 3490.49 to shift focus back to

3514.95-3539.48.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]