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BOND SUMMARY

EGB/Gilt: Risk-Driven Bear Steepening

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS

(U1)‌‌ Consolidating

COMMODITIES

LEVELS UPDATE: Oil down but metals higher

BUNDS

Test session low and the 172.00 figure

10 October 2017
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (Z17) 160.59 & 161.82 Levels Key This Week
*RES 4: 162.15 Hourly support Sept 12 now resistance
*RES 3: 162.07 High Sept 13
*RES 2: 161.82 High Oct 4
*RES 1: 161.66 High Oct 5
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.45
*SUP 1: 161.24 Hourly support Oct 9
*SUP 2: 161.03 Hourly support Oct 6
*SUP 3: 160.85 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support
*SUP 4: 160.59 Low Oct 6
*COMMENTARY: The dip back to 160.59 Friday lacked follow through with the
contract again finding support on a dip below the 100-DMA (160.83). Layers of
resistance remain 161.66-162.15 with bulls still needing a close above 161.82 to
gain breathing room and above 162.15 to target 163.43 Sept highs. While 161.82
caps bears retain the advantage but need a close below 161.03 to gain breathing
room and below 160.25 to initially pressure the 159.58-79 support region.
BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 21-DMA Capping For Now
*RES 4: 131.50 High Oct 4 
*RES 3: 131.39 Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 2: 131.34 High Oct 5 
*RES 1: 131.28 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.24
*SUP 1: 131.20 Hourly support Oct 9
*SUP 2: 131.14 Hourly support Oct 6
*SUP 3: 131.08 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support
*SUP 4: 130.96 Low Oct 6
*COMMENTARY: Downside follow through remains somewhat elusive with the dip below
the 100-DMA (131.07) Friday finding support and recovering with pressure now on
the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to pressure the 131.28-64
region. Bulls look for a close above 131.50 to hint at a shift higher in focus
with above 131.64 to end bearish hopes and target 131.83-98. Bears now need a
close below 131.14 to retain focus on 130.90-96.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.065 & 112.230 Levels Key
*RES 4: 112.215 High Oct 4 
*RES 3: 112.195 Hourly support Oct 4a now resistance 
*RES 2: 112.180 Hourly support Oct 4 now resistance 
*RES 1: 112.174 100-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.145
*SUP 1: 112.135 Low Oct 9 
*SUP 2: 112.105 Low Oct 6 
*SUP 3: 112.099 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: 112.090 Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: Topside and downside follow through were lacking last week as the
contract gravitated back towards the 112.140-160 region. Layers of resistance
remain 112.174-230. Bulls look for a close above the 100-DMA to gain breathing
room and above 112.230 to end bearish hopes and confirm initial focus on
112.285. The 112.065-105 support region remains key. Bears need a close below
112.065 to confirm a bearish bias and initially target 111.985-112.015.
GILT TECHS: (Z17) 124.36-65 Resistance Key
*RES 4: 124.65 High Sept 19 
*RES 3: 124.36 High Sept 20 
*RES 2: 124.22 High Oct 4 
*RES 1: 124.05 High Oct 9
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.00
*SUP 1: 123.69 Low Oct 9 
*SUP 2: 123.29 Hourly support Sept 28 
*SUP 3: 123.12 Low Sept 28 
*SUP 4: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26
*COMMENTARY: The 124.36 resistance confirmed significance last Monday with the
contract rallying only to be capped at this level. Bulls still need a close
above 124.36 to gain breathing room and above 124.65 to shift immediate focus to
125.21 although the 21-DMA (124.38) may slow the move. Bears now need a close
below 123.600 to retain focus on 123.12 and overall focus on 122.60 2017 lows.
SHORT-STELRING TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.360
*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15
*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.350
*SUP 1: 99.330 Lows Oct 4 - 6 & 9
*SUP 2: 99.310 Low Sept 20 & 28
*SUP 3: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support
*SUP 4: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016
*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy bears failed to manage the close below 99.310
needed to pressure 99.230. Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern
for bears and support a correction. Key resistance is still noted at 99.360 with
bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. A close above 99.410 is
again needed to shift focus to 99.495-520 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are
clustered.
EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 100.300
*RES 4: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 
*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 
*RES 2: 100.316 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 100.315 - High Sept 25 & 26, Oct 4 & 9
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310
*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct
*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 3: 100.293 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows
*COMMENTARY: Although the contract closed marginally below the 55-DMA (100.307)
last week, bears need a close below 100.300 to confirm a break and initially
pressure 100.285-293. The contract is lacking follow through above the 21-DMA
(100.309) with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to return focus to
100.325-300. Overall bears need a close below 100.285 to confirm a break of the
100-DMA and below 100.275 to target the 200-DMA (100.260).
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 125-140/230 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 
*RES 3: 125-190 - High Oct 4 
*RES 2: 125-140 - High Oct 5 
*RES 1: 125-070 - Hourly resistance Oct 5
*PRICE: 125-020 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 124-310 - Hourly support Oct 9
*SUP 2: 124-220 - Low Oct 6, Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 124-140 - Monthly Lows July 6 & 7
*SUP 4: 123-230 - Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow through on fresh 3mth lows Friday was a
concern for bears and hints at a correction back to layers of resistance
125-140/230. Bulls continue to look for a close above 125-230 to initially
target tests of 126-030/090. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a
close below 124-310 to end correction talk and maintain initial bearish focus on
124-140 July lows.
US 10-YR YEILD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key
*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 
*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 
*RES 2: 2.402 - High Oct 6 
*RES 1: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: 2.364 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.344 - Hourly support Oct 5 
*SUP 2: 2.319 - Low Oct 5 
*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 
*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a
*COMMENTARY: Dips attracted bids last week resulting in fresh 7mth highs
although the lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of 2.437 is less
than ideal. Bulls look for a close above 2.437 to return overall focus to 2017
highs. Resistance layers starting to build is a concern. Bears look for a close
below 2.319 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA (2.320) and below 2.284 to confirm
an easing of bullish pressure & shift focus to 2.208-2.245.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3595.50 
*RES 4: 3650.81 High May 11 
*RES 3: 3644.32 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: 3629.37 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 3618.34 High Oct 9
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3610.50
*SUP 1: 3595.50 Low Oct 9 
*SUP 2: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 
*SUP 3: 3575.85 Hourly resistance Sept 29a now support 
*SUP 4: 3569.49 Hourly support Sept 29
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 3615.06 has taken its toll with fresh 5mth highs
although follow through has been lacking. Bulls now focus on 3644.32-3666.80
where the channel top and 2017 highs are situated. The 3595.3 support remains
key. Bears need a close below to ease immediate bullish pressure and below
3582.07 to shift immediate focus to the 21-DMA (3555.04). O/B daily studies
looking to correct are the key concern for bulls.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]