MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

10 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) 160.59 & 161.82 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: 162.15 Hourly support Sept 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 162.07 High Sept 13

*RES 2: 161.82 High Oct 4

*RES 1: 161.66 High Oct 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.45

*SUP 1: 161.24 Hourly support Oct 9

*SUP 2: 161.03 Hourly support Oct 6

*SUP 3: 160.85 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*SUP 4: 160.59 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: The dip back to 160.59 Friday lacked follow through with the

contract again finding support on a dip below the 100-DMA (160.83). Layers of

resistance remain 161.66-162.15 with bulls still needing a close above 161.82 to

gain breathing room and above 162.15 to target 163.43 Sept highs. While 161.82

caps bears retain the advantage but need a close below 161.03 to gain breathing

room and below 160.25 to initially pressure the 159.58-79 support region.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 21-DMA Capping For Now

*RES 4: 131.50 High Oct 4 

*RES 3: 131.39 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: 131.34 High Oct 5 

*RES 1: 131.28 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.24

*SUP 1: 131.20 Hourly support Oct 9

*SUP 2: 131.14 Hourly support Oct 6

*SUP 3: 131.08 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*SUP 4: 130.96 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Downside follow through remains somewhat elusive with the dip below

the 100-DMA (131.07) Friday finding support and recovering with pressure now on

the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to pressure the 131.28-64

region. Bulls look for a close above 131.50 to hint at a shift higher in focus

with above 131.64 to end bearish hopes and target 131.83-98. Bears now need a

close below 131.14 to retain focus on 130.90-96.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.065 & 112.230 Levels Key

*RES 4: 112.215 High Oct 4 

*RES 3: 112.195 Hourly support Oct 4a now resistance 

*RES 2: 112.180 Hourly support Oct 4 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.174 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.145

*SUP 1: 112.135 Low Oct 9 

*SUP 2: 112.105 Low Oct 6 

*SUP 3: 112.099 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 112.090 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Topside and downside follow through were lacking last week as the

contract gravitated back towards the 112.140-160 region. Layers of resistance

remain 112.174-230. Bulls look for a close above the 100-DMA to gain breathing

room and above 112.230 to end bearish hopes and confirm initial focus on

112.285. The 112.065-105 support region remains key. Bears need a close below

112.065 to confirm a bearish bias and initially target 111.985-112.015.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 124.36-65 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 3: 124.36 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: 124.22 High Oct 4 

*RES 1: 124.05 High Oct 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.00

*SUP 1: 123.69 Low Oct 9 

*SUP 2: 123.29 Hourly support Sept 28 

*SUP 3: 123.12 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 4: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: The 124.36 resistance confirmed significance last Monday with the

contract rallying only to be capped at this level. Bulls still need a close

above 124.36 to gain breathing room and above 124.65 to shift immediate focus to

125.21 although the 21-DMA (124.38) may slow the move. Bears now need a close

below 123.600 to retain focus on 123.12 and overall focus on 122.60 2017 lows.

SHORT-STELRING TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.360

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.350

*SUP 1: 99.330 Lows Oct 4 - 6 & 9

*SUP 2: 99.310 Low Sept 20 & 28

*SUP 3: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 4: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy bears failed to manage the close below 99.310

needed to pressure 99.230. Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern

for bears and support a correction. Key resistance is still noted at 99.360 with

bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. A close above 99.410 is

again needed to shift focus to 99.495-520 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are

clustered.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 100.300

*RES 4: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 2: 100.316 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Sept 25 & 26, Oct 4 & 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.293 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: Although the contract closed marginally below the 55-DMA (100.307)

last week, bears need a close below 100.300 to confirm a break and initially

pressure 100.285-293. The contract is lacking follow through above the 21-DMA

(100.309) with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to return focus to

100.325-300. Overall bears need a close below 100.285 to confirm a break of the

100-DMA and below 100.275 to target the 200-DMA (100.260).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 125-140/230 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: 125-190 - High Oct 4 

*RES 2: 125-140 - High Oct 5 

*RES 1: 125-070 - Hourly resistance Oct 5

*PRICE: 125-020 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 124-310 - Hourly support Oct 9

*SUP 2: 124-220 - Low Oct 6, Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 124-140 - Monthly Lows July 6 & 7

*SUP 4: 123-230 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow through on fresh 3mth lows Friday was a

concern for bears and hints at a correction back to layers of resistance

125-140/230. Bulls continue to look for a close above 125-230 to initially

target tests of 126-030/090. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a

close below 124-310 to end correction talk and maintain initial bearish focus on

124-140 July lows.

US 10-YR YEILD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: 2.364 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.344 - Hourly support Oct 5 

*SUP 2: 2.319 - Low Oct 5 

*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a

*COMMENTARY: Dips attracted bids last week resulting in fresh 7mth highs

although the lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of 2.437 is less

than ideal. Bulls look for a close above 2.437 to return overall focus to 2017

highs. Resistance layers starting to build is a concern. Bears look for a close

below 2.319 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA (2.320) and below 2.284 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure & shift focus to 2.208-2.245.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3595.50 

*RES 4: 3650.81 High May 11 

*RES 3: 3644.32 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 3629.37 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3618.34 High Oct 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3610.50

*SUP 1: 3595.50 Low Oct 9 

*SUP 2: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 3575.85 Hourly resistance Sept 29a now support 

*SUP 4: 3569.49 Hourly support Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 3615.06 has taken its toll with fresh 5mth highs

although follow through has been lacking. Bulls now focus on 3644.32-3666.80

where the channel top and 2017 highs are situated. The 3595.3 support remains

key. Bears need a close below to ease immediate bullish pressure and below

3582.07 to shift immediate focus to the 21-DMA (3555.04). O/B daily studies

looking to correct are the key concern for bulls.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]