MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

9 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Lacks Follow Through Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: 162.48 21-DMA

*RES 3: 162.33 High Dec 27

*RES 2: 162.04 High Jan 8

*RES 1: 161.90 Hourly resistance Jan 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.76

*SUP 1: 161.39 Low Jan 8

*SUP 2: 161.18 Low Jan 2

*SUP 3: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support

*SUP 4: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2

*COMMENTARY: The bounces from ahead of last week's low are less than ideal with

daily studies correcting from O/S. Bears take comfort in the lack of follow

through above the 100-DMA (161.85) with bulls now needing a close above the

21-DMA to hint at a move back to 163.78 Dec highs with above 162.79 confirming.

The 161.18-39 support is key. Bears look for a close below 161.18 to reconfirm

the bearish bias and add weight to the case for a test of 159.78-160.26.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 132.208 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 132.018 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.760 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.650

*SUP 1: 131.590 Lows Jan 5 & 8

*SUP 2: 131.430 Low Dec 27

*SUP 3: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*SUP 4: 131.206 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern for

bears given the bounce from the bear channel base in recent weeks. Follow

through above 131.760 was lacking with bulls now needing a close above 131.880

to shift focus back to 132.025-240 where key DMAs are noted. Overall bulls need

a close above 132.240 to target 132.740. Bears now need a close below 131.590 to

gain breathing room.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.000-035 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 3: 112.052 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.975

*SUP 1: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 

*SUP 2: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: 111.850 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 4: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont)

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low in recent weeks eased

bearish pressure with bulls needing a close above 112.035 to shift focus to

112.052-107 where key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies add support to

the bullish case for a bigger correction. Bears still need a close below 111.915

to maintain focus on 111.805-840 where 2017 lows are situated.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Broad Sideways Trading Continues

*RES 4: 126.04 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 125.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 125.41 High Dec 27 

*RES 1: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.80

*SUP 1: 124.50 Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: 124.05 Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: 124.04 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 123.78 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to whip around within a broad 124.05-125.41

range. Bears continue to look for a close below 123.62 to confirm a break of the

bull channel base and to shift overall focus to tests of 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls

need a close above 125.69 to initially pressure the bull channel top and hint at

a test of 126.00. Daily studies are at largely neutral levels and Bollinger

bands are beginning to narrow.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Key Resistance Holding Firm

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.445

*SUP 1: 99.433 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the key 99.450 resistance level. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA

and 200-DMA are noted. The 21-DMA remains initial support with bears now needing

a close below to gain breathing room. A close below 99.390 is needed to confirm

a break of the 55-DMA (99.399) and hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.310 Support Remains Unbroken

*RES 4: 100.335 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.315 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 3: 100.303 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 100.310 support with bears needing a close

below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to hint at

a move back to 100.285. The 100.325 resistance level remains key. Bulls need a

close above 100.325 to reconfirm dominance and above the bull channel top to

shift focus to 100.340-380 last seen in 2016.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Remains Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: 124-09+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 124-02+ High Dec 29

*RES 2: 123-28+ 21-DMA

*RES 1: 123-20 High Jan 8

*PRICE: 123-14+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-12+ Low Dec 21

*SUP 2: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 3: 122-28+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 122-20+ Monthly Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from Dec lows the contract has remained capped

ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above 124-02+ to confirm an easing

of bearish pressure and return focus to layers of resistance 124-10+/22 where

the 55-DMA and bear channel top are situated. While the 21-DMA caps immediate

bearish focus remains on tests of the bear channel base coming in around

122-28+.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.529 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 1: 2.504 - High Dec 21

*PRICE: 2.487 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 

*SUP 2: 2.427 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.389 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.344 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year and immediate focus on 2.504. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 2.504 to confirm focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs

2.629-641. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a close below 2.462

to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and hint at a

test of the 200-DMA (2.297) with below 2.344 to confirm.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3620.01 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3624.74 High Jan 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3616.45

*SUP 1: 3608.82 Low Jan 8 

*SUP 2: 3589.09 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 

*SUP 4: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows so far resulted in a pop above the

3620.01 resistance but follow through has been lacking. Daily studies remain

well placed for gains with bulls now needing a close above 3624.74 to add

support to the case for a move targeting 2017 highs. Bears now look for a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 3570.51 to target 2018 lows

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]