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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

10 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Below 161.18 Targets 159.78-160.26
*RES 4: 162.38 21-DMA
*RES 3: 162.33 High Dec 27
*RES 2: 162.04 High Jan 8
*RES 1: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.20
*SUP 1: 161.18 Low Jan 2
*SUP 2: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support
*SUP 3: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2
*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on pops above the 100-DMA (161.85)
resulted in a sell-off that sees pressure on 161.18. Bears look for a close
below 161.18 to reconfirm the bearish bias and add weight to the case for a test
of 159.78-160.26. Daily momentum studies have corrected and are well placed for
a fresh leg lower. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to hint
at a move back to 163.78 Dec highs with above 162.79 confirming.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) 131.430 Support Now Key
*RES 4: 132.191 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 132.031 100-DMA 
*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 
*RES 1: 131.820 High Jan 8
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.580
*SUP 1: 131.430 Low Dec 27 & Jan 2
*SUP 2: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)
*SUP 3: 131.175 Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 4: 131.157 Bollinger band top
*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain topside traction on the break above 131.760 and
hesitation ahead of 131.880 resulted in a sell-off and bearish close that sees
immediate focus back on the double daily bottom at 131.430. Below 131.430 is
needed to confirm focus on the bear channel base. Bulls need a close above
131.880 to ease bearish pressure and above 132.240 to target 132.740.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.000-042 Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 
*RES 3: 112.042 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 
*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.965
*SUP 1: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 
*SUP 2: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 
*SUP 3: 111.850 Low Dec 27 
*SUP 4: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont)
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low in recent weeks eased
bearish pressure with bulls now needing a close above the 21-DMA to shift focus
to 112.042-106 where key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies add support
to the bullish case. The 111.915-940 support region remains key with bears
needing a close below 111.915 to maintain focus on 111.805-840 where 2017 lows
are situated.
GILT TECHS: (H18) Broad Sideways Trading Continues
*RES 4: 125.69 High Dec 15 
*RES 3: 125.41 High Dec 27 
*RES 2: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8 
*RES 1: 124.41 Low Jan 8 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.28
*SUP 1: 124.05 Low Jan 2 
*SUP 2: 123.99 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: 123.81 Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 4: 123.62 Low Dec 8
*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to whip around within a broad 124.05-125.41
range. Bears continue to look for a close below 123.62 to confirm a break of the
bull channel base and to shift overall focus to tests of 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls
need a close above 125.69 to initially pressure the bull channel top and hint at
a test of 126.00. Daily studies are at largely neutral levels and Bollinger
bands are relatively flat.
SHORT-STELRING TECHS: (H18) Key Resistance Holding Firm
*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14
*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA
*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA
*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450
*SUP 1: 99.435 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support
*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8
*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the key 99.450 resistance level. Bulls continue
to look for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA
and 200-DMA are noted. The 21-DMA remains initial support with bears now needing
a close below to gain breathing room. A close below 99.390 is needed to confirm
a break of the 55-DMA (99.400) and hint at a move back to 99.300-310.
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.310 Support Remains Unbroken
*RES 4: 100.335 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.315 - 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310
*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5
*SUP 3: 100.304 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 100.310 support with bears needing a close
below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to hint at
a move back to 100.285. The 100.325 resistance level remains key. Bulls need a
close above 100.325 to reconfirm dominance and above the bull channel top to
shift focus to 100.340-380 last seen in 2016.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On Channel Base
*RES 4: 124-02+ High Dec 29
*RES 3: 123-27+ 21-DMA
*RES 2: 123-20  High Jan 8
*RES 1: 123-09  Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*PRICE: 123-00+ @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 122-28+ Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 2: 122-22+ Monthly Low Apr 4 2014
*SUP 3: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011
*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011
*COMMENTARY: Topside failures around the 21-DMA have resulted in a break lower
and immediate focus on 122-22+/28+ where the bear channel base is located. Daily
studies remain well placed for further losses as resistance layers accumulate
and weigh. Bulls now need a close above 123-09 to ease immediate bearish
pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift focus to 124-02+/14+ where the bear
channel top and 55-DMA are noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2.629-692
*RES 4: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 
*RES 3: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 
*RES 1: 2.558 - Low Mar 9
*PRICE: 2.551 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.531 - Hourly support Jan 9 
*SUP 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 
*SUP 4: 2.443 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a
bounce to start the new year with the close above the weekly bear channel top
(2.529) adding support to the case for a move now initially targeting 2.629-692
where yearly and monthly highs are situated. Daily studies have room to move
before O/B becomes an issue. Bears now look for a close below 2.504 to gain
breathing room and hint at a correction back to the 21-DMA.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3608.82 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 
*RES 3: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 
*RES 1: 3639.12 Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3622.87
*SUP 1: 3608.82 Low Jan 8 
*SUP 2: 3589.41 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 
*SUP 4: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows so far sees the index gaining traction
above the 3608.82 support with bulls needing a close above 3642.10 to add
support to the case for a test of 2017 highs. Bears now look for a close below
3608.82 to ease bullish pressure and below 3750.51 to shift focus back to 2018
lows so far. Daily studies are well placed for further topside.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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