MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

10 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Below 161.18 Targets 159.78-160.26

*RES 4: 162.38 21-DMA

*RES 3: 162.33 High Dec 27

*RES 2: 162.04 High Jan 8

*RES 1: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.20

*SUP 1: 161.18 Low Jan 2

*SUP 2: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support

*SUP 3: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2

*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on pops above the 100-DMA (161.85)

resulted in a sell-off that sees pressure on 161.18. Bears look for a close

below 161.18 to reconfirm the bearish bias and add weight to the case for a test

of 159.78-160.26. Daily momentum studies have corrected and are well placed for

a fresh leg lower. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to hint

at a move back to 163.78 Dec highs with above 162.79 confirming.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) 131.430 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 132.191 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 132.031 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.820 High Jan 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.580

*SUP 1: 131.430 Low Dec 27 & Jan 2

*SUP 2: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*SUP 3: 131.175 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 131.157 Bollinger band top

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain topside traction on the break above 131.760 and

hesitation ahead of 131.880 resulted in a sell-off and bearish close that sees

immediate focus back on the double daily bottom at 131.430. Below 131.430 is

needed to confirm focus on the bear channel base. Bulls need a close above

131.880 to ease bearish pressure and above 132.240 to target 132.740.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.000-042 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 3: 112.042 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.965

*SUP 1: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 

*SUP 2: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: 111.850 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 4: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont)

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low in recent weeks eased

bearish pressure with bulls now needing a close above the 21-DMA to shift focus

to 112.042-106 where key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies add support

to the bullish case. The 111.915-940 support region remains key with bears

needing a close below 111.915 to maintain focus on 111.805-840 where 2017 lows

are situated.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Broad Sideways Trading Continues

*RES 4: 125.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 125.41 High Dec 27 

*RES 2: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8 

*RES 1: 124.41 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.28

*SUP 1: 124.05 Low Jan 2 

*SUP 2: 123.99 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 123.81 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 123.62 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to whip around within a broad 124.05-125.41

range. Bears continue to look for a close below 123.62 to confirm a break of the

bull channel base and to shift overall focus to tests of 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls

need a close above 125.69 to initially pressure the bull channel top and hint at

a test of 126.00. Daily studies are at largely neutral levels and Bollinger

bands are relatively flat.

SHORT-STELRING TECHS: (H18) Key Resistance Holding Firm

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450

*SUP 1: 99.435 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the key 99.450 resistance level. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA

and 200-DMA are noted. The 21-DMA remains initial support with bears now needing

a close below to gain breathing room. A close below 99.390 is needed to confirm

a break of the 55-DMA (99.400) and hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.310 Support Remains Unbroken

*RES 4: 100.335 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.315 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 3: 100.304 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 100.310 support with bears needing a close

below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to hint at

a move back to 100.285. The 100.325 resistance level remains key. Bulls need a

close above 100.325 to reconfirm dominance and above the bull channel top to

shift focus to 100.340-380 last seen in 2016.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On Channel Base

*RES 4: 124-02+ High Dec 29

*RES 3: 123-27+ 21-DMA

*RES 2: 123-20  High Jan 8

*RES 1: 123-09  Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 123-00+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 122-28+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: 122-22+ Monthly Low Apr 4 2014

*SUP 3: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures around the 21-DMA have resulted in a break lower

and immediate focus on 122-22+/28+ where the bear channel base is located. Daily

studies remain well placed for further losses as resistance layers accumulate

and weigh. Bulls now need a close above 123-09 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift focus to 124-02+/14+ where the bear

channel top and 55-DMA are noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2.629-692

*RES 4: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 3: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: 2.558 - Low Mar 9

*PRICE: 2.551 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.531 - Hourly support Jan 9 

*SUP 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 

*SUP 4: 2.443 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year with the close above the weekly bear channel top

(2.529) adding support to the case for a move now initially targeting 2.629-692

where yearly and monthly highs are situated. Daily studies have room to move

before O/B becomes an issue. Bears now look for a close below 2.504 to gain

breathing room and hint at a correction back to the 21-DMA.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3608.82 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3639.12 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3622.87

*SUP 1: 3608.82 Low Jan 8 

*SUP 2: 3589.41 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 

*SUP 4: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows so far sees the index gaining traction

above the 3608.82 support with bulls needing a close above 3642.10 to add

support to the case for a test of 2017 highs. Bears now look for a close below

3608.82 to ease bullish pressure and below 3750.51 to shift focus back to 2018

lows so far. Daily studies are well placed for further topside.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]