MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

12 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Below 159.78 Targets 2017 Low

*RES 4: 162.10 21-DMA

*RES 3: 162.04 High Jan 8

*RES 2: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 1: 160.80 Alternating support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.50

*SUP 1: 160.29 Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2

*SUP 3: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28

*SUP 4: 158.73 2017 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on pops above the 100-DMA (161.85)

resulted in a sell-off that sees pressure on 159.78-160.26. Bears now look for a

close below 159.78 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Resistance layers

continue to accumulate and add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a

close above 160.80 to gain breathing room and above 162.37 to end bearish hopes

and hint at a move back to 163.78 Dec highs with above 162.79 confirming.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Focus Shifts to 2017 Low

*RES 4: 131.820 High Jan 8 

*RES 3: 131.720 High Jan 11 

*RES 2: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.340 Hourly resistance Jan 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.180

*SUP 1: 131.080 2018 Low Jan 11

*SUP 2: 131.073 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 130.920 2017 Low Sept 28

*SUP 4: 130.580 Low Nov 16 2016

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain topside traction on the break above 131.760 and

hesitation ahead of 131.880 resulted in a sell-off that now sees focus back on

tests off 2017 lows and a break below targeting 130.390-580.Layers of resistance

accumulating are weighing with bull snow needing a close above 131.52 to ease

bearish pressure and above 131.720 to pressure 131.855-132.034.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 111.940

*RES 4: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3 

*RES 3: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 2: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.860

*SUP 1: 111.845 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 2: 111.805 2017 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: 111.800 Low May 20 2016 

*SUP 4: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with a sell-off and bearish close that

sees focus now on layers of support 111.750-745 where yearly and monthly lows

are located. Daily studies are well placed for losses. Bulls now look for a

close above 111.940 to ease bearish pressure and hint at a correction back to

111.985-112.035 where 2018 highs and the 21-DMA are located. Above 112.035 is

needed to shift focus to 55 (112.085) & 100 (112.100) DMAs.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 123.62 Targets 122.44

*RES 4: 125.41 High Dec 27 

*RES 3: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8 

*RES 2: 124.50 High Jan 11 

*RES 1: 124.13 Hourly support Jan 11 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.85

*SUP 1: 123.80 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 2: 123.62 Low Dec 8 

*SUP 3: 123.12 Monthly Low Nov 30 

*SUP 4: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 125.41 sees focus back on the 123.62

support as the contract flirts with the bull channel base and Bollinger base

(123.87). Bears look for a close below 123.62 to confirm a break of the bull

channel base and to shift overall focus to tests of 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls still

need a close above 124.50 to gain breathing room and above 124.96 to shift focus

back to 125.41-69.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.445

*SUP 1: 99.439 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA and

200-DMA are noted. The 21-DMA remains initial support with bears still needing a

close below to gain breathing room. A close below 99.390 is needed to confirm a

break of the 55-DMA (99.403) and hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Pressuring 100-DMA

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.314 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 2: 100.304 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 100.310 finally took its toll with a close below that

sees pressure shift to the 100-DMA. bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint

at a move back to 100.285. Initial resistance is now noted at 100.310 but bulls

look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and shift initial

focus to 100.320-325. Daily studies at modestly O/S levels is less than ideal

for bears.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 123-09+/22+ Resistance Key

*RES 4: 124-02+ High Dec 29

*RES 3: 123-22+ 21-DMA

*RES 2: 123-20 High Jan 8

*RES 1: 123-09 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 123-02 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 122-27+ Low Jan 11

*SUP 2: 122-22+ Monthly Low Apr 4 2014, 2018 Low Jan 10

*SUP 3: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3+yr lows resulted in a dip below the bear channel base

before finding support at 122-22+. Bears look for a close below this level to

shift focus to 120-25+/121-22+. The Bollinger base (122-24+) is a concern for

bears and limits follow through. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing

a close above 123-09 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift

focus to 124-02+/13+ where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.504 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.597 - 2018 High Jan 10 

*RES 1: 2.570 - High Jan 11

*PRICE: 2.544 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.526 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 

*SUP 4: 2.457 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 10mth highs is a

concern for bulls who are currently focused on 2.629-692 where yearly and

monthly highs are situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal.

Bears continue to look for a close below 2.504 to gain breathing room and hint

at a correction back to 2.401-2.457 where the 21 & 55-DMAs and bull channel base

off Sept lows are noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3570.51

*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3629.73 2018 High Jan 9 

*RES 1: 3617.75 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3595.24

*SUP 1: 3589.25 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 

*SUP 3: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3508.37 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 3642.1 resistance is less than

ideal for bulls who need a close above this level to confirm initial focus on

tests of 2017 highs. Weekly studies remain well placed for further topside

following the recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (3492.56) last week. Bears

continue to look for a close below 3570.51 to shift focus back to 2018 lows so

far.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]