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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

12 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Below 159.78 Targets 2017 Low
*RES 4: 162.10 21-DMA
*RES 3: 162.04 High Jan 8
*RES 2: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*RES 1: 160.80 Alternating support/resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.50
*SUP 1: 160.29 Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2
*SUP 3: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28
*SUP 4: 158.73 2017 Low Mar 14
*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on pops above the 100-DMA (161.85)
resulted in a sell-off that sees pressure on 159.78-160.26. Bears now look for a
close below 159.78 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Resistance layers
continue to accumulate and add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a
close above 160.80 to gain breathing room and above 162.37 to end bearish hopes
and hint at a move back to 163.78 Dec highs with above 162.79 confirming.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) Focus Shifts to 2017 Low
*RES 4: 131.820 High Jan 8 
*RES 3: 131.720 High Jan 11 
*RES 2: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 
*RES 1: 131.340 Hourly resistance Jan 11
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.180
*SUP 1: 131.080 2018 Low Jan 11
*SUP 2: 131.073 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 130.920 2017 Low Sept 28
*SUP 4: 130.580 Low Nov 16 2016
*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain topside traction on the break above 131.760 and
hesitation ahead of 131.880 resulted in a sell-off that now sees focus back on
tests off 2017 lows and a break below targeting 130.390-580.Layers of resistance
accumulating are weighing with bull snow needing a close above 131.52 to ease
bearish pressure and above 131.720 to pressure 131.855-132.034.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 111.940
*RES 4: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3 
*RES 3: 111.985 High Jan 11 
*RES 2: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 now resistance 
*RES 1: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.860
*SUP 1: 111.845 Low Jan 11 
*SUP 2: 111.805 2017 Low June 28 
*SUP 3: 111.800 Low May 20 2016 
*SUP 4: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016
*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with a sell-off and bearish close that
sees focus now on layers of support 111.750-745 where yearly and monthly lows
are located. Daily studies are well placed for losses. Bulls now look for a
close above 111.940 to ease bearish pressure and hint at a correction back to
111.985-112.035 where 2018 highs and the 21-DMA are located. Above 112.035 is
needed to shift focus to 55 (112.085) & 100 (112.100) DMAs.
GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 123.62 Targets 122.44
*RES 4: 125.41 High Dec 27 
*RES 3: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8 
*RES 2: 124.50 High Jan 11 
*RES 1: 124.13 Hourly support Jan 11 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.85
*SUP 1: 123.80 Low Jan 11 
*SUP 2: 123.62 Low Dec 8 
*SUP 3: 123.12 Monthly Low Nov 30 
*SUP 4: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 125.41 sees focus back on the 123.62
support as the contract flirts with the bull channel base and Bollinger base
(123.87). Bears look for a close below 123.62 to confirm a break of the bull
channel base and to shift overall focus to tests of 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls still
need a close above 124.50 to gain breathing room and above 124.96 to shift focus
back to 125.41-69.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14
*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA
*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA
*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.445
*SUP 1: 99.439 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support
*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8
*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm. Bulls continue to look
for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA and
200-DMA are noted. The 21-DMA remains initial support with bears still needing a
close below to gain breathing room. A close below 99.390 is needed to confirm a
break of the 55-DMA (99.403) and hint at a move back to 99.300-310.
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Pressuring 100-DMA
*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 2: 100.314 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305
*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5
*SUP 2: 100.304 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 100.310 finally took its toll with a close below that
sees pressure shift to the 100-DMA. bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint
at a move back to 100.285. Initial resistance is now noted at 100.310 but bulls
look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and shift initial
focus to 100.320-325. Daily studies at modestly O/S levels is less than ideal
for bears.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 123-09+/22+ Resistance Key
*RES 4: 124-02+ High Dec 29
*RES 3: 123-22+ 21-DMA
*RES 2: 123-20 High Jan 8
*RES 1: 123-09 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*PRICE: 123-02 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 122-27+ Low Jan 11
*SUP 2: 122-22+ Monthly Low Apr 4 2014, 2018 Low Jan 10
*SUP 3: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011
*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3+yr lows resulted in a dip below the bear channel base
before finding support at 122-22+. Bears look for a close below this level to
shift focus to 120-25+/121-22+. The Bollinger base (122-24+) is a concern for
bears and limits follow through. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing
a close above 123-09 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift
focus to 124-02+/13+ where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.504 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 
*RES 3: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 
*RES 2: 2.597 - 2018 High Jan 10 
*RES 1: 2.570 - High Jan 11
*PRICE: 2.544 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.526 - Low Jan 11 
*SUP 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 
*SUP 4: 2.457 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 10mth highs is a
concern for bulls who are currently focused on 2.629-692 where yearly and
monthly highs are situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal.
Bears continue to look for a close below 2.504 to gain breathing room and hint
at a correction back to 2.401-2.457 where the 21 & 55-DMAs and bull channel base
off Sept lows are noted.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3570.51
*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3629.73 2018 High Jan 9 
*RES 1: 3617.75 High Dec 11
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3595.24
*SUP 1: 3589.25 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 
*SUP 3: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support 
*SUP 4: 3508.37 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 3642.1 resistance is less than
ideal for bulls who need a close above this level to confirm initial focus on
tests of 2017 highs. Weekly studies remain well placed for further topside
following the recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (3492.56) last week. Bears
continue to look for a close below 3570.51 to shift focus back to 2018 lows so
far.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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