MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

1 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Close Above 159.66 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 160.36 High Jan 26

*RES 3: 160.09 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 2: 159.66 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 159.33 High Jan 31

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.69

*SUP 1: 158.50 2018 Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: 157.52 Low Dec 29 2015

*SUP 3: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*SUP 4: 156.55 Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows saw the contract dip below the 200-WMA

(158.63). Bears look for a weekly close below the 200-WMA to target 154.81 Nov

2015 monthly lows although layers of support 156.55-157.52 may slow the move.

O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (158.78) remain concerns for bears.

Bulls need a close above 159.66 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA

(160.52) to shift focus to161.13-162.04 where key DMAs are situated.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Below 130.320 Targets 128.820-129.460

*RES 4: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 130.950 High Jan 26 

*RES 2: 130.770 Hourly resistance Jan 26 

*RES 1: 130.630 Low Jan 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.420

*SUP 1: 130.340 2018 Low Jan 29 & Jan 31

*SUP 2: 130.320 Monthly High Dec 3 2015 now support

*SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*SUP 4: 128.820 Monthly Low Dec 4 2015

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows continued Friday with the Bollinger base

(130.377) the key concern given potential to limit follow through. In saying

that, immediate focus is on the break of 130.320 needed to shift focus to

128.82-129.46 last seen in Dec 2015. Initial resistance remains at 130.630 with

bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA

(131.175) to target a correction back to 131.450-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 111.845-900 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 111.900 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.870 Hourly resistance Jan 26 

*RES 1: 111.845 High Jan 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.810

*SUP 1: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 3: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016 

*SUP 4: 111.624 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to gain traction above the 21-DMA (111.899) last week

with Monday's sell-off resulting in fresh 2018 & 18mth lows. The lack of follow

through is less than ideal with bears focused on the 200-WMA and below 111.750

to add weight to their case. Bulls need a close above 111.845 to ease bearish

pressure and above 111.900 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear channel top

(111.880) to shift initial focus to 111.950-000.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Initial Focus On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.12 Low Nov 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: 122.65 High Jan 30 

*RES 1: 122.22 Hourly support Jan 31 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.14

*SUP 1: 122.01 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 121.87 2018 Low Jan 31 

*SUP 3: 121.38 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016

*COMMENTARY: The contract remained capped ahead of key DMAs in past weeks with

the sell-off Wednesday leaving H18 looking a little heavy. Fresh 2018 & 18mth

lows add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA. Bears need a close below

the 200-WMA to target 118.93-120.54 where 2016 monthly lows are situated. Bulls

now look for a close above 122.65 to ease bearish pressure and above 123.43 to

shift focus to 123.61-124.50.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Pressure Remains On 55-DMA

*RES 4: 99.474 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.441 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.425

*SUP 1: 99.423 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.394 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level held firm with topside failures finally

taking their toll and Thursday's bearish close seeing focus back on 55 &

100-DMAs. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to target 99.300-310 with

below 99.390 to add weight to the case. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to shift focus to 99.474-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Above100.325 Targets 100.340-341

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.318 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan

*SUP 2: 100.307 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 4: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.307) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

Focus has returned to the 100.320-325 region with the Bollinger top currently

limiting follow through. Bulls now look for a close above 100.325 to target

100.340-341 where the bull channel top is noted. Daily studies lingering at

modestly O/B levels remains less than ideal for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Above 122-04+ To Hint At Correction

*RES 4: 122-10+ Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 3: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 2: 121-31  Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 121-22  Hourly resistance Jan 31

*PRICE: 121-14 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 121-10+ 2018 Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: 121-07+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 121-04+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows lack follow through which is a concern

given O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base limiting follow through. Bulls

need a close above 121-31 to gain breathing room and above 122-04+ to hint at a

correction to 122-19+/20 where the 21-DMA (122-19+) is noted. Bears initially

focus on 120-25+ while 122-04+ caps but need a close below 121-10+ to add weight

to their case. 

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.654-676 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.802 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.754 - 2018 High Jan 31

*PRICE: 2.735 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.696 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 2: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+ year highs

with immediate bullish focus on 2.802-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014 highs

(Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.771) and O/B studies remain concerns for

bulls. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.676 to

ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to 2.571-609 where

key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Currently On Key DMAs

*RES 4: 3687.29 2018 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 3674.50 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: 3659.33 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: 3636.05 Low Jan 29 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3609.29

*SUP 1: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 

*SUP 2: 3589.77 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3584.53 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3534.51 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Having failed to trouble 2017 highs on the recovery from 2018 lows

the index is again looking a little offered following closes below the 21-DMA

(3617.97). Focus is on key DMAs with bears needing a close below the 200-DMA to

add weight to the case for a move targeting 2018 lows. Bulls need a close above

3636.05 to gain breathing room and above 2018 highs to initially test 2017

highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]