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Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
4 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (M18) Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure
*RES 4: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance
*RES 3: 160.01 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28
*RES 1: 159.55 High Apr 18
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.17
*SUP 1: 158.91 High May 2 now support
*SUP 2: 158.82 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 158.38 Low Apr 30
*SUP 4: 157.90 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with a close above the 21-DMA that sees
immediate focus on 159.69 and bulls now looking for a close above this level to
shift initial focus to 160.26-98 where Dec highs are noted. Bears now need a
close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 158.38 to target a
correction back to 157.34-43. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg
higher and have room to move before O/B is an issue.
BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 131.070
*RES 4: 131.519 200-WMA
*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont)
*RES 2: 131.356 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 131.310 High Apr 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.180
*SUP 1: 131.103 100-WMA
*SUP 2: 131.070 High Apr 30 now support
*SUP 3: 130.880 Low May 3
*SUP 4: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 100-WMA that sees
immediate pressure on the 131.310 Apr high. Bulls look for a close above this
level to target the 131.519-859 region where the 200-WMA and bull channel top
are located. The Bollinger top is likely to limit follow through and is a
concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 131.070 to gain breathing room
and below 130.880 to shift focus to 130.510-680.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.945 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28
*RES 3: 111.952 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6
*RES 1: 111.930 Highs Apr 10 & 13
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.920
*SUP 1: 111.875 Low Apr 27
*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14
*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9
*SUP 4: 111.715 Low Feb 27
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on dips below the 100-DMA (111.826)
resulted in closes above the 21-DMA (111.896). Bulls need a close above 111.945
to confirm traction above the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 111.952-990
where the Bollinger top is noted. Bears now look for a close below 111.875 to
gain breathing room and below 111.805 to confirm traction below DMAs and
initially target 111.715. O/S studies have corrected back to neutral levels.
GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance
*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4
*RES 2: 122.88 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 122.84 Highs Apr 11 & 18
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.52
*SUP 1: 121.70 Low May 3
*SUP 2: 121.58 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 121.07 Low Mar 26
*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 55-DMA adds to bullish
confidence with immediate focus back on the 123.03 resistance. Bulls look for a
close above this level to initially target the daily bull channel top around
123.72. Daily studies approaching O/B are a concern for bulls. In saying that,
the 55-DMA support remains key with bears needing a close below to ease bullish
pressure and shift initial focus back to 120.69.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Pressuring 200-DMA
*RES 4: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3
*RES 3: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan
*RES 2: 99.310 High Feb 7
*RES 1: 99.295 200-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.285
*SUP 1: 99.270 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 2: 99.240 Repeated daily lows Apr/May
*SUP 3: 99.230 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 99.210 High Apr 20 now support
*COMMENTARY: The contract has found support ahead of the 100-DMA this week
providing the base for a rally and close above 99.270 Thursday that now sees
immediate focus on the 200-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 200-DMA to
shift focus to 99.340-370 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears now look for a close
below 99.270 to gain breathing room and below 99.210 to confirm traction below
the 100-DMA and initially target 99.145-160.
EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Focused On 100.320-340
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec
*RES 1: 100.310 - 2018 High May 3 & 4
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305
*SUP 1: 100.300 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Apr
*SUP 3: 100.286 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support
*COMMENTARY: Having found support at 100.295 bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 &
19mth highs with immediate focus now on 100.320-340. Bulls have room to move
before studies become O/B. Bears now need a close below 100.295 to ease bullish
pressure and to shift initial focus back to 100.272-286 where 55 & 100-DMAs and
the bull channel base off 2018 lows are noted.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 119-08 Support Now Key
*RES 4: 120-20+ Hourly resistance Apr 12
*RES 3: 120-06+ High Apr 19, 55-DMA
*RES 2: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance
*RES 1: 119-29+ High Apr 20
*PRICE: 119-21 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-08 Low May 2
*SUP 2: 118-31 2018 Low Apr 25
*SUP 3: 118-24 Low Apr 13 2011
*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on the dip below 119-09
Wednesday with bears now needing a close below this level to ease renewed
bullish pressure and return initial focus to 2018 lows. Correcting O/S daily
studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above
Y120-06+ to initially target a correction back to 120-20+/24 and above 120-24 to
shift focus to 121-04+/12 with the 100-DMA at 121-04+.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.041-073 Resistance Region Remains Key
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25
*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2
*PRICE: 2.948 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20
*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20
*SUP 3: 2.899 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily
studies correcting from O/B). Immediate focus remains on 2.925. Below 2.925 is
needed to shift initial focus back to 2.868-904 where 21 & 55 (2.868) DMAs are
situated. The 3.041-3.073 resistance region remains key with bulls needing a
close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull channel top is
noted.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key Today
*RES 4: 3667.42 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 3557.87 High May 2
*RES 2: 3549.14 High May 3
*RES 1: 3535.75 Hourly support May 3 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3529.12
*SUP 1: 3512.14 200-DMA
*SUP 2: 3502.91 Hourly support Apr 26
*SUP 3: 3480.20 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 3464.35 Low Apr 25
*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below 3523.81 lacked follow through Thursday with
bears now needing a close below the 200-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish
pressure and below 3464.35 to shift focus back to 3383.17-3417.29 where the
55-DMA (3424.08) is situated. Bulls now look for a close above 3570.95 to
reconfirm the bullish bias and above 3600.36 to reconfirm focus on 2018 highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.