MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

4 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 160.01 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28

*RES 1: 159.55 High Apr 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.17

*SUP 1: 158.91 High May 2 now support

*SUP 2: 158.82 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 158.38 Low Apr 30

*SUP 4: 157.90 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with a close above the 21-DMA that sees

immediate focus on 159.69 and bulls now looking for a close above this level to

shift initial focus to 160.26-98 where Dec highs are noted. Bears now need a

close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 158.38 to target a

correction back to 157.34-43. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

higher and have room to move before O/B is an issue.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 131.070

*RES 4: 131.519 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 131.356 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 131.310 High Apr 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.180

*SUP 1: 131.103 100-WMA

*SUP 2: 131.070 High Apr 30 now support

*SUP 3: 130.880 Low May 3

*SUP 4: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 100-WMA that sees

immediate pressure on the 131.310 Apr high. Bulls look for a close above this

level to target the 131.519-859 region where the 200-WMA and bull channel top

are located. The Bollinger top is likely to limit follow through and is a

concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 131.070 to gain breathing room

and below 130.880 to shift focus to 130.510-680.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.945 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 3: 111.952 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 1: 111.930 Highs Apr 10 & 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.920

*SUP 1: 111.875 Low Apr 27 

*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 4: 111.715 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on dips below the 100-DMA (111.826)

resulted in closes above the 21-DMA (111.896). Bulls need a close above 111.945

to confirm traction above the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 111.952-990

where the Bollinger top is noted. Bears now look for a close below 111.875 to

gain breathing room and below 111.805 to confirm traction below DMAs and

initially target 111.715. O/S studies have corrected back to neutral levels.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 2: 122.88 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 122.84 Highs Apr 11 & 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.52

*SUP 1: 121.70 Low May 3 

*SUP 2: 121.58 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.07 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 55-DMA adds to bullish

confidence with immediate focus back on the 123.03 resistance. Bulls look for a

close above this level to initially target the daily bull channel top around

123.72. Daily studies approaching O/B are a concern for bulls. In saying that,

the 55-DMA support remains key with bears needing a close below to ease bullish

pressure and shift initial focus back to 120.69.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Pressuring 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3

*RES 3: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan

*RES 2: 99.310 High Feb 7

*RES 1: 99.295 200-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.285

*SUP 1: 99.270 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: 99.240 Repeated daily lows Apr/May

*SUP 3: 99.230 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.210 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The contract has found support ahead of the 100-DMA this week

providing the base for a rally and close above 99.270 Thursday that now sees

immediate focus on the 200-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 200-DMA to

shift focus to 99.340-370 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears now look for a close

below 99.270 to gain breathing room and below 99.210 to confirm traction below

the 100-DMA and initially target 99.145-160.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Focused On 100.320-340

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 2018 High May 3 & 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.300 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Apr

*SUP 3: 100.286 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*COMMENTARY: Having found support at 100.295 bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 &

19mth highs with immediate focus now on 100.320-340. Bulls have room to move

before studies become O/B. Bears now need a close below 100.295 to ease bullish

pressure and to shift initial focus back to 100.272-286 where 55 & 100-DMAs and

the bull channel base off 2018 lows are noted.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 119-08 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 120-20+ Hourly resistance Apr 12

*RES 3: 120-06+ High Apr 19, 55-DMA

*RES 2: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance

*RES 1: 119-29+ High Apr 20

*PRICE: 119-21 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-08  Low May 2

*SUP 2: 118-31  2018 Low Apr 25

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on the dip below 119-09

Wednesday with bears now needing a close below this level to ease renewed

bullish pressure and return initial focus to 2018 lows. Correcting O/S daily

studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above

Y120-06+ to initially target a correction back to 120-20+/24 and above 120-24 to

shift focus to 121-04+/12 with the 100-DMA at 121-04+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.041-073 Resistance Region Remains Key

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2

*PRICE: 2.948 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 

*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.899 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B). Immediate focus remains on 2.925. Below 2.925 is

needed to shift initial focus back to 2.868-904 where 21 & 55 (2.868) DMAs are

situated. The 3.041-3.073 resistance region remains key with bulls needing a

close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull channel top is

noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: 3667.42 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 3557.87 High May 2 

*RES 2: 3549.14 High May 3 

*RES 1: 3535.75 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3529.12

*SUP 1: 3512.14 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3502.91 Hourly support Apr 26 

*SUP 3: 3480.20 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3464.35 Low Apr 25

*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below 3523.81 lacked follow through Thursday with

bears now needing a close below the 200-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and below 3464.35 to shift focus back to 3383.17-3417.29 where the

55-DMA (3424.08) is situated. Bulls now look for a close above 3570.95 to

reconfirm the bullish bias and above 3600.36 to reconfirm focus on 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]