MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

8 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Support Emerging Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 3: 162.15 High May 31

*RES 2: 161.75 High June 1

*RES 1: 160.68 Lows June 4 & 5 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.19

*SUP 1: 159.88 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 159.39 Low June 7

*SUP 3: 159.12 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 158.23 High May 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Losses have defined the week so far but bulls take comfort in

support emerging ahead of the 55-DMA Thursday. Bears now need a close below the

55-DMA to confirm immediate focus on 157.14-158.23 with below 157.14 to target

154.33 Feb lows. Initial resistance remains at 160.68. Bulls need a close above

160.68 to gain breathing room and above 162.15 to hint at a move back to 2018

highs. Daily studies have now corrected to neutral levels.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 131.430 Resistance Remains Key Today

*RES 4: 132.370 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 132.120 High May 31 

*RES 2: 131.860 High June 5 

*RES 1: 131.430 Low June 4 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.300

*SUP 1: 131.104 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 130.920 Low June 7

*SUP 3: 130.810 Low May 24

*SUP 4: 130.664 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite dipping below the 21-DMA Thursday bears failed to manage a

close below. Initial resistance remains at 131.430 today. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 131.430 to gain breathing room and above 132.12 to return

focus to 132.660-970 where 2018 highs are noted. While 131.430 caps bears retain

the upper hand but now need a close below 130.590 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA and pressure 129.98-130.311.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Lacks Follow Though Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 112.120 High May 31 

*RES 2: 112.065 High June 5 

*RES 1: 112.010 Hourly resistance June 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.945

*SUP 1: 111.922 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 111.910 Low June 7 

*SUP 3: 111.815 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 111.811 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of traction below the 21-DMA on the

dip Thursday leaving bears needing a close below 111.910 to confirm a break and

immediate focus on 111.792-815 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Layers of

resistance remain 112.065-155 that are seen as key. Bulls now need a close above

112.065 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to shift focus back to

112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 122.43

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29

*RES 3: 123.17 High June 1 

*RES 2: 122.43 Low June 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: 121.98 High June 7

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.62

*SUP 1: 121.33 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 120.96 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 119.95 Monthly Low Apr 23 

*SUP 4: 119.53 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 21-DMA (121.67) adds to bearish confidence with

focus on 55 & 100-DMAs today. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to

initially target 119.95 with the Bollinger base noted just below. Bulls still

need a close above 122.43 to gain breathing room and above 123.17 to return

immediate focus to 2018 highs.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.350 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.300 High May 25-30

*RES 2: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.235 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.210

*SUP 1: 99.191 200-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 3: 99.131 100-DMA, 21-WMA

*SUP 4: 99.129 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's highs has

resulted in the contract correcting lower. Bears take comfort as the contract

gains traction below the 21-DMA. Bears now look for a close below the 200-DMA to

confirm initial focus on 99.129-140 where key DMA and WMAs are noted. The 21-DMA

is initial resistance but bulls need a close above 99.260 to gain breathing

room.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 21-DMA Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 100.291 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 100.275 - Low June 4 & 5 now resistance, 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 100.265 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 1: 100.261 - 200-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.255

*SUP 1: 100.243 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 100.235 - Low May 31

*SUP 3: 100.215 - Low May 30

*SUP 4: 100.190 - 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with the recovery from 2018 lows

remaining capped on approach. The failure ahead of the 55-DMA has provided the

impetus for a sell-off and close below the 200-DMA that sees immediate focus on

the 100.215-243 support region where the Bollinger base is noted. Bulls now need

a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above 100.295 to return

focus to 2018 highs.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-00+ Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 3: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 2: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 1: 120-00+ High June 7

*PRICE: 119-19+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-07+ 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 119-04  Low June 7

*SUP 3: 118-30  Low May 24

*SUP 4: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: The dip below 21-DMA was aggressively reversed although so far

bulls have failed to gain traction above the 100-DMA (119-28+). Bulls now need a

close above 120-00+ to confirm traction above the 100-DMA and add support to the

case for a move back to 121-03/12+.The 118-30 support remains key this week.

Bears continue to look for a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

shift initial focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884 & 3.014 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 2: 2.994 - High June 7 

*RES 1: 2.967 - Hourly support June 7 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.933 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - Low June 7 

*SUP 2: 2.860 - Low June 1 

*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 3.014 resulted in a sell-off Thursday and dip

below the 55-DMA (2.911) easing bullish pressure. Bears now need a close below

2.884 lows from Thursday to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and to return focus to

2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted. Daily momentum studies are back at

neutral levels and ready for a fresh leg lower. Bulls need a close above 3.014

to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target 2018 highs.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 3497.32

*RES 4: 3540.03 High May 28 

*RES 3: 3519.37 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 3513.90 21-DMA

*RES 1: 3497.32 High June 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3459.77

*SUP 1: 3434.35 Low June 6 

*SUP 2: 3420.84 Low June 1 

*SUP 3: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3379.53 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears but

failure to gain traction on pops above 55 (3475.30) & 100 (3472.00) DMAs is less

than ideal. Bulls need a close above 3497.32 to confirm traction above 55 &

100-DMAs and above 3540.03 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and return focus to

2018 highs. Bears look for a close below 3434.35 to ease renewed bullish

pressure and return focus to 3383.17.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]