MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1824 High Aug 8 

*RES 3: $1.1802 Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1777 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1768 Hourly support Aug 7 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1738 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1690 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 2: $1.1686 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1671 Low July 28 

*SUP 4: $1.1648 Low July 27

*COMMENTARY: Wednesday's sell-off lacked follow through with the pair finding

support ahead of the 21-DMA. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to add

further weight to their case for a move that initially targets $1.1583-1.1648.

Layers of resistance remain in place with bulls needing a close above $1.1777 to

ease immediate bearish pressure and above $1.1824 to hint at a retest of 2017

highs.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3025-66 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.3079 Hourly support Aug 4 

*RES 3: $1.3066 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3059 High Aug 7 

*RES 1: $1.3025 High Aug 9

*PRICE: $1.2985 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2955 Low Aug 8 

*SUP 2: $1.2921 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2843 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2834 Daily bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains heavy as it gains traction below the 21-DMA with

immediate bearish focus on the 55-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA

to shift initial focus to $1.2797-1.2843 where the 100-DMA and bull channel base

are situated. Bulls now need a close above $1.3025 to gain breathing room and

above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to $1.3113.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y110.25

*RES 4: Y111.05 High Aug 4 

*RES 3: Y110.82 High Aug 8 

*RES 2: Y110.59 Hourly resistance Aug 8 

*RES 1: Y110.25 Low Aug 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.98 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.58 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 2: Y109.35 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y108.81 Monthly Low June 14 

*SUP 4: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the Y111.05-44 region where key DMAs are

clustered resulted in breaks of support layers leaving the pair looking heavy

with bears now focused on 2017 lows. Layers of resistance have accumulated with

bulls now needing a close above Y110.25 to ease immediate bearish pressure and

shift focus back to Y111.05-111.43. The Bollinger base and O/S daily studies are

concerns for bears with potential to limit follow through.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.13 High Aug 4 

*RES 3: Y130.23 Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y129.89 Low Aug 1 now resistance, 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y129.54 Hourly resistance Aug 10

*PRICE: Y129.09 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.41 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 2: Y127.99 Low July 6 

*SUP 3: Y127.43 Low June 30 

*SUP 4: Y127.33 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Having supported the past 3 weeks, bears take comfort in closes

below the 21-DMA that confirm an easing of bullish pressure and sees focus shift

back to Y127.33-43 where key supports and the 55-DMA are located. Layers of

resistance are weighing and leaving the pair looking offered. Bulls now need a

close above Y129.54 to gain breathing room and above Y129.89 to shift focus back

to Y131.13-133.64. Below the 55-DMA hints at a move back to Y125.80.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8988

*RES 4: Gbp0.9141 High Oct 11

*RES 3: Gbp0.9088 2017 High Aug 8

*RES 2: Gbp0.9063 Hourly resistance Aug 8

*RES 1: Gbp0.9045 High Aug 9

*PRICE: Gbp0.9031 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9010 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8994 High July 21 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8988 High Aug 2 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8968 Hourly resistance Aug 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite fresh 2017 and 10mth highs, the lack of topside follow

through was a concern given daily studies looking to correct from O/B and daily

momentum divergence. In saying that, the Gbp0.8988 support remains key. Bears

need a close below Gbp0.8988 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8922-41 where the

21-DMA is noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above Gbp0.9063 to retain

focus on Gbp0.9141-86 where the bull channel top is noted.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7838 & $0.7949 Levels Key

*RES 4: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 

*RES 3: $0.7979 - High Aug 4 

*RES 2: $0.7949 - High Aug 7 

*RES 1: $0.7919 - Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7876 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7858 - Low Aug 9 

*SUP 2: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7781 - Low July 17 

*SUP 4: $0.7749 - Hourly support July 14a

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy with immediate bearish focus on the $0.7838

support. Overall a close below $0.7838 is needed to shift focus to

$0.7749-0.7781. Layers of resistance are adding weight to the bearish case with

bulls needing a close above $0.7949 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7998

to shift focus initial focus back to $0.8044-65 where 2017 highs are located.

Daily studies have room to move before becoming O/S.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 2: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 1: 93.888 - High Aug 9, 21-DMA

*PRICE: 93.524 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.238 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 2: 93.061 - Hourly support Aug 4a

*SUP 3: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*SUP 4: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting although hesitation ahead

of the recent 2017 lows & 200-WMA (92.399) is less than ideal for bears.

Immediate bearish pressure has been eased with bulls now needing a close above

the 21-DMA to shift initial focus to 94.476 and a close above needed to target

95.167-663 where the 55-DMA is noted. The 93.061 support remains key with bears

needing a close below to return focus to 2017 lows.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.258 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 2.319 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8

*RES 2: 2.276 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: 2.258 - High Aug 9

*PRICE: 2.250 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.230 - Hourly resistance Aug 9 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.212 - Low Aug 9 

*SUP 3: 2.205 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 2.177 - High June 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the sell-off Wednesday is less than ideal for

bears who now need a close below 2.212 to reconfirm focus on tests of 2017 lows.

Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above 2.258 to gain

breathing room and above 2.289 to shift immediate focus to 2.319-337 where the

bear channel top is located. Overall bulls now need a close above 2.337 to shift

focus to 2.398-2.437.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below $47.86 

*RES 4: $51.11 - Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: $50.48 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: $50.10 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: $49.78 - High Aug 8

*PRICE: $49.54 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.87 - Low Aug 8 

*SUP 2: $48.50 - Low Aug 4 

*SUP 3: $48.38 - Low Aug 1 

*SUP 4: $48.25 - Low July 27

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to $47.86-48.38 is a concern for

bears who need a close below the $47.86 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure

and below the 55-DMA ($46.92) to hint at a move back to $42.28 with below $45.16

to confirm. Layers of resistance $50.10-51.18 remain key. Bulls need a close

above the 200-DMA ($51.18) to confirm a bullish bias and shift immediate focus

to May highs ($52.63).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On $1280.8

*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 3: $1291.0 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1285.4 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1280.8 - High June 14

*PRICE: $1276.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1270.0 - Hourly support Aug 9 

*SUP 2: $1263.4 - Hourly support Aug 9a 

*SUP 3: $1258.9 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: $1253.1 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA Tuesday has resulted in

pressure returning to the key $1280.8 resistance. Bulls look for a close above

this level to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially target retests of 2017

highs. Layers of support are building with bears now needing a close below

$1270.0 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $1263.4 to shift focus back

to the 55-DMA.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]