MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressuring Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $1.1910 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1.1862 Low Sept 20 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1838 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.1828 Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: $1.1809 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1795 Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 2: $1.1756 Hourly resistance Oct 9 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1739 Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on fresh lows for the week Friday with

the pair finding support and bouncing ahead of the daily bear channel base and

layers of support $1.1583-1.1661. Below $1.1583 is needed to see bears shift

focus to $1.1477. This week has seen the pair recover lost ground and pressure

$1.1838-1.1862 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. Bulls need a close above $1.1862 to

shift focus to $1.2033-92 and above the channel top to confirm.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3124-72 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3356 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3297 Hourly resistance Oct 2 

*RES 1: $1.3226 High Oct 10

*PRICE: $1.3197 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3172 Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 2: $1.3135 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3124 Hourly resistance Oct 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3074 Hourly support Oct 9

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back to the 100-DMA ($1.3021) has

received support from correcting O/S daily studies with bulls looking for a

close above $1.3226 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($1.3351). Current

hesitation around $1.3226 is less than ideal for bulls, although bears now need

a close below $1.3172 to gain breathing room and below $1.3124 to confirm a

break below the 55-DMA and returning focus to $1.2995-1.3018.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bounces From 21 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: Y113.63 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y113.44 High Oct 6 

*RES 2: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: Y112.46 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.11 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y111.84 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.48 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 4: Y111.10 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bearish pressure resulted in a break lower only to find support and

bounce from key DMAs. The break above Y112.48 sees bulls gain breathing room

with above Y112.89 to return pressure to Y113.44-70. Bears now focus on the

200-DMA with a close below needed to pressure Y111.48 and below this level to

shift focus to 55 (Y110.66) & 100 (111.10) DMAs. Below the 55-DMA hints at a

move back to 2017 lows with below Y109.52 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.74 & Y133.49 Levels Key

*RES 4: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 3: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25

*RES 2: Y133.11 High Sept 29

*RES 1: Y132.89 Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: Y132.79 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.65 Hourly support Oct 11 

*SUP 2: Y132.23 Low Oct 10 

*SUP 3: Y131.97 Hourly support Oct 9 

*SUP 4: Y131.74 Low Sept 26

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the key Y131.74 support bears failed to manage

the close below needed to shift immediate focus to Y130.38-00 where the 55-DMA &

200-WMA are noted. Bears now need a close below Y132.26 to return pressure to

the key Y131.74 support. Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back

below Y132.00 but now need a close above Y133.49 to return focus to Y134.25-41.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 55-DMA

*RES 3: Gbp0.8992 High Oct 6

*RES 2: Gbp0.8969 Hourly sup[port Oct 9 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.8954 High Oct 10

*PRICE: Gbp0.8943 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8925 Low Oct 10 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8906 Low Oct 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8861 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on the close above Gbp0.8920

with the Gbp0.8992-0.9045 resistance key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.9045 to

confirm a break of the 55-DMA, hint at a move back to Gbp0.8213-0.9306 and above

Gbp0.9107 to confirm. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a close

below the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8861) to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to

Gbp0.8717-57 where the 200-DMA & 55-WMA are found.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: $0.7887 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7840 - Hourly resistance Oct 5

*RES 2: $0.7798 - Hourly resistance Oct 6a

*RES 1: $0.7809 - Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: $0.7780 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7772 - Hourly support Oct 10 & 11 

*SUP 2: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6 

*SUP 3: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7672 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low saw the pair pop above the

100-DMA ($0.7790) but topside follow through now appears to be lacking. Bulls

now need a close above $0.7809 to add support to the case for a bounce back to

21 & 55-DMAs ($0.7887-0.7921). Correcting O/S studies add support to the case

for a correction. Bears now need a close below $0.7772 to ease renewed bullish

pressure and below $0.7712 to focus on the 200-DMA ($0.7672).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 92.724 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 93.844 - High Oct 9 

*RES 3: 93.623 - Hourly support Oct 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: 93.427 - Hourly resistance Oct 10a 

*RES 1: 93.305 - Hourly resistance Oct 10

*PRICE: 93.278 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.124 - Hourly support Oct 11

*SUP 2: 93.083 - Hourly support Sept 29

*SUP 3: 92.921 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 92.899 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of the

100-DMA has left the index looking heavy and correcting back towards 92.724-921

where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Below 92.724 remains needed to confirm breaks of

DMAs and to shift overall focus back to 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are

accumulating with bulls needing a close above 93.623 to gain breathing room and

above 94.476 to shift focus to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: 2.361 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.350 - Hourly resistance Oct 10 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.330 - Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 3: 2.319 - Low Oct 5 & 10, 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.296 - Low Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: Dips attracted bids last week resulting in fresh 7mth highs

although the lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of 2.437 was

less than ideal. Bulls now look for a close above 2.372 to gain breathing room

and above 2.437 to return overall focus to 2017 highs. Bears now need a close

below 2.319 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.284 to shift focus to

2.208-2.245 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) Pressure Back On $51.22-77 

*RES 4: $52.86 - High Sept 28 

*RES 3: $52.27 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $51.77 - High Sept 29 

*RES 1: $51.22 - Low Sept 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $51.05 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $50.73 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $50.44 - Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 3: $50.06 - Hourly support Oct 10a 

*SUP 4: $49.42 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading has seen the pair recover from dips below the

55-DMA to return pressure once again to $51.22-77. Bulls continue to look for a

close above $51.77 to return immediate focus to $52.86 and overall focus to the

bull channel top ($54.03). The 200-DMA is now initial support. Bears look for a

close below to gain breathing room and below $50.44 to shift focus back to

$48.96-49.42 where the 55-DMA is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 

*RES 3: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 

*RES 2: $1293.8 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1292.7 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1287.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.1 - Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 2: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Friday's low has seen the pair capped ahead of

the key $1296.4 resistance and 21 & 55-DMAs. Bulls again look for a close above

$1296.4 to shift initial focus back to $1313.6-1320.0. Initial support is noted

at $1285.1 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room with below

$1277.6 needed to retain focus on $1242.0-1254.3 where the bull channel base and

200-DMA are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]