MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below $1.1880 Pressures $1.1772-1.1813

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20

*RES 3: $1.2004 High Sept 22

*RES 2: $1.1992 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 1: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*PRICE: $1.1906 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1880 High Oct 12 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1836 Low Nov 24 

*SUP 3: $1.1813 Hourly support Nov 23 

*SUP 4: $1.1772 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Gains defined last week with the pair finding support ahead of the

21-DMA ($1.1728) and bulls taking comfort in the close above $1.1880 that saw

focus shift to $1.2033-1.2092 where 2017 highs are situated. O/B daily studies

and Bollinger top ($1.1943) are concerns for bulls. Bears need a close below

$1.1880 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to $1.1772-1.1813

where the bull channel base is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3514 High Sept 26 

*RES 3: $1.3470 LT Weekly Bear channel top 

*RES 2: $1.3461 High Sept 27 now support 

*RES 1: $1.3382 High Nov 27

*PRICE: $1.3318 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3277 Hourly support Nov 22a 

*SUP 2: $1.3261 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3208 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3170 Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: The break of $1.3343 continues to lack follow through courtesy of

the Bollinger band top ($1.3374), but consolidation above $1.3277 sees bulls

focused on $1.3461 for now. The 55-DMA is key support today with bears needing a

close below to ease bullish pressure. Below the 21-DMA in needed to hint at a

move back to $1.2995-1.3037 with below the 100-DMA ($1.3141) confirming.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below 100-WMA Targets Y107.31

*RES 4: Y112.18 Hourly resistance Nov 22 

*RES 3: Y111.87 Low Nov 20 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.69 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y111.46 Hourly resistance Nov 27

*PRICE: Y111.21 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.84 Hourly support Nov 24 

*SUP 2: Y110.60 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: Y110.22 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.52 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Bearish confidence grew with the 200-DMA capping to start the new

week and focus on the 100-WMA. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to confirm

focus on tests of Y107.31 2017 lows. O/S studies and the Bollinger band base

(Y110.78) remain key concerns for bears. Bulls look for a close above the

200-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA (Y112.90) to shift overall

focus back to tests of Y114.72 with above Y113.33 confirming.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.23 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: Y133.49 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y133.23 High Nov 24

*RES 2: Y132.91 Hourly resistance Nov 27

*RES 1: Y132.66 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y132.38 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.93 Hourly support Nov 24 

*SUP 2: Y131.64 Hourly support Nov 23 

*SUP 3: Y131.39 100-DMA, 21-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y131.21 Low Nov 23

*COMMENTARY: Friday's gains have largely been reversed with the close below 21 &

55-DMAs easing renewed bullish pressure and shifting focus back to the key

Y131.21-39 region where the 100-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below Y131.21

to end bullish hopes and shift overall focus back to Y127.54 with below Y130.59

to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above Y133.23 to shift focus

back to Y133.88-134.50.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8968

*RES 4: Gbp0.9022 High Oct 20 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8992 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8968 High Nov 16 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8965 Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: Gbp0.8933 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8924 Hourly resistance Nov 24 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8892 Hourly support Nov 23 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8854 Low Nov 22 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8837 Low Nov 13

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8956) saw the

pair capped ahead of the daily bear channel top. Bulls now need a close above

Gbp0.8968 to confirm breaks of the channel top and 100-DMA with focus shifting

to Gbp0.9022-48. The Gbp0.8924 support remains key with bears needing a close

below to ease pressure on the channel top and shift immediate focus to

Gbp0.8837.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $0.7765 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 2: $0.7693 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7644 - High Nov 28

*PRICE: $0.7605 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7589 - High Nov 21 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7552 - Low Nov 22 

*SUP 3: $0.7532 - Low Nov 21 

*SUP 4: $0.7519 - Low June 9

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies and a lack of follow through below the Bollinger

base ($0.7544) resulted in a break of $0.7609 last week that saw pressure on the

21-DMA. Topside follow through above the 21-DMA ($0.7629) was lacking with bulls

now needing a close above $0.7644 to confirm breaks of the channel top and

21-DMA, shifting immediate focus to the 200-DMA and overall focus to

$0.7694-0.7768. Bears need a close below $0.7519 to reconfirm the bearish bias.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 93.962 - High Nov 22 

*RES 3: 93.538 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 93.303 - High Nov 23 

*RES 1: 93.018 - Hourly support Nov 24

*PRICE: 92.902 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.496 - Low Nov 27

*SUP 2: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*SUP 3: 91.526 - Low Oct 19 

*SUP 4: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: Closes below the 55-DMA & 100-DMA (93.454) resulted in a marginal

break of 92.724 leaving the index looking heavy Friday. Bears currently focus on

91.011-781 where 2017 lows are situated. Layers of resistance are accumulating

and weighing. Bulls need a close above 93.018 to gain breathing room and above

the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 94.056-165 where the 21-DMA (94.056) is

located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 21-DMA Capping

*RES 4: 2.386 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 3: 2.379 - High Nov 16 

*RES 2: 2.367 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 2.351 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.333 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.322 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.319 - Low Nov 15 

*SUP 3: 2.305 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.282 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 21-DMA capping to start the new week and

pressure remaining on the key 2.273-3.322 support region where 55, 100 &

200-DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below 2.273 to confirm breaks of these

level and shift immediate focus to 2.207. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 2.386 to ease bearish pressure and above 2.419 to return initial focus to

2.477.

NYMEX WTI: (F18) Below 21-DMA Targets Deeper Correction 

*RES 4: $59.52 - Daily bull channel top 

*RES 3: $59.09 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $59.05 - 2017 High Nov 24 

*RES 1: $58.37 - Hourly resistance Nov 27

*PRICE: $57.73 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $58.15 - High Nov 22 now support 

*SUP 2: $57.75 - Low Nov 23 

*SUP 3: $57.22 - High Nov 21 now support 

*SUP 4: $56.88 - Hourly support 21 Nov

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Monday negated Friday's gains with focus now on the

$56.53-57.22 support region where the 21-DMA is located. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to $55.00-75 and overall focus back to

$53.06-96 where the 55-DMA ($53.48) and bull channel base ($53.64) reside.

Initial resistance is noted at $58.37 with bulls needing a close above to

pressure 2017 highs once more.

SPOT GOLD: Below $1285.8 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 3: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 

*RES 2: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $1299.1 - High Nov 27

*PRICE: $1293.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.8 - Low Nov 24 

*SUP 2: $1279.0 - Low Nov 22 

*SUP 3: $1274.9 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of $1297.0 lacked follow through but with the 55-DMA

($1286.3) now supporting bullish focus shifts to $1306.0-1320.0. The Bollinger

top ($1296.8) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Bears need a close below $1285.8 to ease bullish pressure and below

$1274.9 to shift pressure back to $1260.2-1266.3 where the bull channel base and

200-DMA are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]