MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1690 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 3: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: $1.1862 High Dec 14

*RES 1: $1.1834 Hourly resistance Dec 15

*PRICE: $1.1787 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1745 Daily Bull channel base (off Nov Low) 

*SUP 2: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1621 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: Support continues to emerge on dips back towards the key $1.1690

level. Bears continue to look for a close below $1.1690 to initially target

$1.1552 Nov lows. Modestly O/S daily studies are the key concern for bears.

Topside follow through was lacking Monday with bulls continuing to look for a

close above $1.1884 to see focus return to the $1.1940-1.1962 region with above

$1.1962 to pressure 2017 highs.

     CABLE TECHS: Lower Daily Highs On Bounces

*RES 4: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 3: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 2: $1.3462 High Dec 14 

*RES 1: $1.3418 High Dec 18

*PRICE: $1.3381 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3359 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1.3300 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3257 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3200 100-DMA, Daily bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in yet another bounce from around the $1.3300

level but lower daily highs on bounces are less than ideal. Bears continue to

look for a close below $1.3200 to confirm breaks of key DMAs and the bull

channel base, shifting focus to $1.2992-1.3037 where the 200-DMA ($1.2999) is

located. Bulls now need a close above $1.3462 to confirm an easing of bearish

pressure and above $1.3549 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs ($1.3656).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y112.88

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13a 

*RES 1: Y112.88 High Dec 14

*PRICE: Y112.62 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.33 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 3: Y111.60 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation saw USDJPY head lower taking out key

supports but Y111.98 remains in play. Thursday's losses see bears focused on

Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a

close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31). The pair was rejected above

the 55-DMA with bulls now needing a close above Y112.88 to ease bearish pressure

and above Y114.07 to reconfirm initial focus on Y114.72 Nov highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Initially Need Close Above Y133.11

*RES 4: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 3: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 2: Y133.88 High Dec 11

*RES 1: Y133.11 Hourly support Dec 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.75 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.38 Hourly support Dec 18 

*SUP 2: Y132.03 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Y131.88 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y131.71 Low Nov 28

*COMMENTARY: The previously noted Y133.88 resistance confirmed significance with

the pair capped ahead last week and pressure returning to layers of support

Y130.59-131.86 where 100-DMA and 21-WMAs are noted. Bears still need a close

below Y131.71 to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA (Y127.79) with below Y130.59

confirming. Layers of resistance remain with bulls still needing a close above

Y133.11 to ease pressure on key supports and initially pressure Y133.88.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8886 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8869 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8840 High Dec 18

*PRICE: Gbp0.8810 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Attempts to break higher remain capped ahead of the 55-DMA with

layers of resistance Gbp0.8869-8981 key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8981 to

shift initial focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. The Gbp0.8759 level supported last week

with bears now needing a close below to return immediate pressure to Gbp0.8690.

Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on

tests of the bear channel base coming in around Gbp0.8420.

     AUSSIE TECHS: 200-DMA Capping For Now, $0.7623 Support Key

*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 2: $0.7692 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7674 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7662 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7500 saw closes above the channel top & the

pair pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs. Layers of resistance remain $0.7674-0.7791 with

bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA ($0.7791) to shift overall focus to 2017

highs. Key supports remain with bears still needing a close below $0.7623 to

ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7580 to return initial focus to

$0.7482-00 where the weekly bull channel base is noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Key

*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 94.219 - High Dec 12 

*RES 1: 94.107 - High Dec 13

*PRICE: 93.683 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.610 - Hourly support Dec 18

*SUP 2: 93.282 - Low Dec 14

*SUP 3: 93.171 - Low Dec 6

*SUP 4: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in pressure on the 100-DMA (93.349) failing to

produce the close below needed to pressure the 92.496-604 support region. Bears

continue to look for a close below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017

lows. The bounce Friday provided bulls breathing room but a close above 94.219

is still needed to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where the

200-DMA (94.576) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.477 Targets 2017 High

*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 2: 2.426 - High Dec 13 

*RES 1: 2.413 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 2.394 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.380 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.357 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.301 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base has failed to produce a break lower

with focus back on 2.426-437. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.437 to

pressure 2.477 and above this level to target 2017 highs. Support layers

building is less than ideal for bears with a close below 2.380 needed to retain

pressure on 2.344-357. Below 2.344 is needed to confirm a break of the channel

base and shift initial focus to 2.273-301 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower 

*RES 4: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 

*RES 3: $58.60 - High Dec 12 

*RES 2: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12 

*RES 1: $57.46 - Hourly resistance Dec 18

*PRICE: $57.35 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.88 - Low Dec 18 

*SUP 2: $56.48 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $55.88 - Low Dec 7 

*SUP 4: $55.10 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of the $58.99 Nov high was less than

ideal last week and resulted in a dip below the channel base. Bears look for a

close below $55.88 to confirm a break of key supports and below the 55-DMA to

shift focus back to $52.63-83 where the channel base off June lows and 100-DMA

are noted. Bulls still need a close above $57.98 to reconfirm initial focus on

$58.60-58.99 with a break targeting channel tops ($60.27-62.18).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1249.2

*RES 4: $1284.1 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 2: $1276.0 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1261.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18 

*SUP 2: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13 

*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a correction back

towards layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where DMAs and bear channel top are

noted. Layers of support have accumulated with bears now needing a close below

$1256.5 to gain breathing room and below $1249.2 to shift immediate focus to

$1235.9 and overall focus to $1204.6-1214.0. Bulls need a close above $1269.9 to

add to confidence.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]