MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014

*RES 3: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 2: $1.2052 High Jan 8

*RES 1: $1.2009 Hourly resistance Jan 8

*PRICE: $1.1967 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1956 Low Jan 8 

*SUP 2: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1903 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1842 Daily Bull channel base (off Nov low)

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of 2017 highs has taken its toll with

the sell-off Monday leaving the pair looking heavy and seeing focus on support

layers $1.1802-1.1903 where key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated.

Layers of resistance accumulating and daily studies correcting from O/B adds

weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $1.2092 to reconfirm a

bullish bias initially targeting $1.2254.

     CABLE TECHS: Above 2017 Highs initially Targets $1.3828

*RES 4: $1.3828 Low Feb 29 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1.3612 2018 High Jan 3 

*RES 1: $1.3585 High Jan 8

*PRICE: $1.3573 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3553 Hourly support Jan 8 

*SUP 2: $1.3521 Low Jan 5 

*SUP 3: $1.3491 Low Jan 1 

*SUP 4: $1.3538 Hourly support Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair regains ground following last week's

dip back to $1.3491. O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls who are

currently focused on $1.3612. A close above $1.3612 confirms immediate focus on

the 2017 high and hints at a move to $1.3828. Bears now need a close below

$1.3553 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA ($1.3443) to shift focus

back to key DMAs $1.3275-1.3334.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Trading Back Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.44 High Dec 22 

*RES 2: Y113.20 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: Y112.91 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y112.59 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.45 Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 3: Y111.70 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA has been brief with the break below

Y112.86 leaving the pair looking heavy and reconfirming focus on the

Y110.83-111.98 support region where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears continue to

look for a close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a

close above Y113.44 to confirm a break of the channel top and shift overall

focus back to Y114.72.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Hinting At Correction To Y133.88

*RES 4: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 3: Y135.99 Low Jan 5 now resistance

*RES 2: Y135.48 Hourly resistance Jan 8

*RES 1: Y135.11 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y134.72 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 4: Y133.32 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through has taken its toll with a

sell-off that leaves the pair looking a little heavy. Daily studies correcting

from O/B add weight to the case for a correction back to Y132.72-133.88 where

key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close above Y135.99 to ease bearish

pressure and retain focus on Y139.02-141.05.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8910 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8887 Hourly resistance Jan 5 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8853 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8834 Hourly resistance Jan 8

*PRICE: Gbp0.8816 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8790 Low Dec 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Monthly Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Having looked heavy Monday bears were not disappointed with closes

below key supports that sees focus back on the Gbp0.8690-0.8790 support region.

Overall bears need a close below Gbp0.8690 to confirm a bearish bias and

initially target the 100-WMA (Gbp0.8547). Bulls now need a close above the

55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to shift focus higher.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7802

*RES 4: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 3: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 2: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7874 - High Jan 5

*PRICE: $0.7858 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7702 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies looking to correct remain a key concern for bulls

who are initially focused on $0.7906 with overall focus on 2017 highs. Topside

hesitation to start the new week is less than ideal but bears continue to look

for a close below $0.7802 to gain breathing room. Bears still need a close below

the 200-DMA to shift initial focus to $0.7623 and hint at a move back to

$0.7499-00 with below $0.7580 to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.100 & 92.518 Levels Key

*RES 4: 93.064 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28 

*RES 1: 92.518 - Hourly support Dec 29 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.249 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.100 - High Jan 5 now support 

*SUP 2: 91.751 - Low Jan 2

*SUP 3: 91.526 - Low Oct 19

*SUP 4: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with the index

bouncing from ahead of last week's lows for a bullish close that sees pressure

back on 92.518. Bulls look for a close above 92.518 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above the 55-DMA (93.577) to shift initial focus to 94.219 and

overall focus to 95.167-464. Bears now need a close below 92.100 to retain focus

on tests of 2017 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.529 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 1: 2.504 - High Dec 21

*PRICE: 2.487 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 

*SUP 2: 2.427 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.389 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.344 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year and immediate focus on 2.504. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 2.504 to confirm focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs

2.629-641. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a close below 2.462

to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and hint at a

test of the 200-DMA (2.297) with below 2.344 to confirm.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: NYMEX WTI: (G18) Bulls Focused On $63.97-65.17 

*RES 4: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $63.97 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low) 

*RES 2: $62.58 - 2015 High May 6 2015 

*RES 1: $62.56 - Hourly resistance Jan 9

*PRICE: $62.23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $61.97 - Hourly resistance Jan 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $61.34 - Low Jan 8 

*SUP 3: $61.09 - Low Jan 5 

*SUP 4: $60.77 - Hourly support Jan 3a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as gains above the 200-WMA $59.95 continue. O/B

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that,

bears still need a close below $61.09 to ease bullish pressure and below $59.82

to shift immediate focus back to the bull channel base ($58.73) & 21-DMA

($59.17). Bulls remain focused on the channel top and $63.97-65.17 region while

$61.09 supports.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1302.5-1314.4 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 1: $1325.9 - 2018 High Jan 4

*PRICE: $1318.9 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1314.4 - Low Dec 5 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 4: $1289.0 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is less than ideal when combined with daily

studies looking to correct from O/B. In saying that, bears now look for a close

below $1314.4 to ease bullish pressure and below $1302.5 to shift focus back to

$1272.3-1289.0 where key DMAs are noted. While $1302.5 supports bulls maintain

focus on tests of $1357.5-1374.9 where 2016 & 2017 highs are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]