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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy
*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014
*RES 3: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 2: $1.2052 High Jan 8
*RES 1: $1.2009 Hourly resistance Jan 8
*PRICE: $1.1967 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1956 Low Jan 8 
*SUP 2: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.1903 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.1842 Daily Bull channel base (off Nov low)
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of 2017 highs has taken its toll with
the sell-off Monday leaving the pair looking heavy and seeing focus on support
layers $1.1802-1.1903 where key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated.
Layers of resistance accumulating and daily studies correcting from O/B adds
weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $1.2092 to reconfirm a
bullish bias initially targeting $1.2254.
     CABLE TECHS: Above 2017 Highs initially Targets $1.3828
*RES 4: $1.3828 Low Feb 29 2016 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 
*RES 2: $1.3612 2018 High Jan 3 
*RES 1: $1.3585 High Jan 8
*PRICE: $1.3573 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3553 Hourly support Jan 8 
*SUP 2: $1.3521 Low Jan 5 
*SUP 3: $1.3491 Low Jan 1 
*SUP 4: $1.3538 Hourly support Jan 2
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair regains ground following last week's
dip back to $1.3491. O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls who are
currently focused on $1.3612. A close above $1.3612 confirms immediate focus on
the 2017 high and hints at a move to $1.3828. Bears now need a close below
$1.3553 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA ($1.3443) to shift focus
back to key DMAs $1.3275-1.3334.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Trading Back Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: Y113.74 High Dec 12 
*RES 3: Y113.44 High Dec 22 
*RES 2: Y113.20 Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 1: Y112.91 55-DMA
*PRICE: Y112.59 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.45 Low Jan 4 
*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 
*SUP 3: Y111.70 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29
*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA has been brief with the break below
Y112.86 leaving the pair looking heavy and reconfirming focus on the
Y110.83-111.98 support region where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears continue to
look for a close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a
close above Y113.44 to confirm a break of the channel top and shift overall
focus back to Y114.72.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Hinting At Correction To Y133.88
*RES 4: Y136.32 High Jan 8
*RES 3: Y135.99 Low Jan 5 now resistance
*RES 2: Y135.48 Hourly resistance Jan 8
*RES 1: Y135.11 Low Jan 8 now resistance
*PRICE: Y134.72 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27 
*SUP 2: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 
*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19 
*SUP 4: Y133.32 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through has taken its toll with a
sell-off that leaves the pair looking a little heavy. Daily studies correcting
from O/B add weight to the case for a correction back to Y132.72-133.88 where
key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated. Layers of resistance are
accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close above Y135.99 to ease bearish
pressure and retain focus on Y139.02-141.05.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8910 100-DMA 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8887 Hourly resistance Jan 5 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8853 55-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8834 Hourly resistance Jan 8
*PRICE: Gbp0.8816 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8790 Low Dec 18 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Monthly Low Dec 8
*COMMENTARY: Having looked heavy Monday bears were not disappointed with closes
below key supports that sees focus back on the Gbp0.8690-0.8790 support region.
Overall bears need a close below Gbp0.8690 to confirm a bearish bias and
initially target the 100-WMA (Gbp0.8547). Bulls now need a close above the
55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to shift focus higher.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7802
*RES 4: $0.8036 - High Sept 21
*RES 3: $0.7986 - High Sept 22
*RES 2: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7874 - High Jan 5
*PRICE: $0.7858 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 
*SUP 2: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 
*SUP 3: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support 
*SUP 4: $0.7702 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies looking to correct remain a key concern for bulls
who are initially focused on $0.7906 with overall focus on 2017 highs. Topside
hesitation to start the new week is less than ideal but bears continue to look
for a close below $0.7802 to gain breathing room. Bears still need a close below
the 200-DMA to shift initial focus to $0.7623 and hint at a move back to
$0.7499-00 with below $0.7580 to confirm.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.100 & 92.518 Levels Key
*RES 4: 93.064 - 21-DMA 
*RES 3: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 
*RES 2: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28 
*RES 1: 92.518 - Hourly support Dec 29 now resistance
*PRICE: 92.249 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 92.100 - High Jan 5 now support 
*SUP 2: 91.751 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 3: 91.526 - Low Oct 19
*SUP 4: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8
*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with the index
bouncing from ahead of last week's lows for a bullish close that sees pressure
back on 92.518. Bulls look for a close above 92.518 to ease immediate bearish
pressure and above the 55-DMA (93.577) to shift initial focus to 94.219 and
overall focus to 95.167-464. Bears now need a close below 92.100 to retain focus
on tests of 2017 lows.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 
*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 
*RES 2: 2.529 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 
*RES 1: 2.504 - High Dec 21
*PRICE: 2.487 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 
*SUP 2: 2.427 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: 2.389 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.344 - Low Dec 14
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a
bounce to start the new year and immediate focus on 2.504. Bulls continue to
look for a close above 2.504 to confirm focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs
2.629-641. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a close below 2.462
to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and hint at a
test of the 200-DMA (2.297) with below 2.344 to confirm.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: NYMEX WTI: (G18) Bulls Focused On $63.97-65.17 
*RES 4: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 
*RES 3: $63.97 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low) 
*RES 2: $62.58 - 2015 High May 6 2015 
*RES 1: $62.56 - Hourly resistance Jan 9
*PRICE: $62.23 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $61.97 - Hourly resistance Jan 8 now support 
*SUP 2: $61.34 - Low Jan 8 
*SUP 3: $61.09 - Low Jan 5 
*SUP 4: $60.77 - Hourly support Jan 3a
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as gains above the 200-WMA $59.95 continue. O/B
studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that,
bears still need a close below $61.09 to ease bullish pressure and below $59.82
to shift immediate focus back to the bull channel base ($58.73) & 21-DMA
($59.17). Bulls remain focused on the channel top and $63.97-65.17 region while
$61.09 supports.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1302.5-1314.4 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 
*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 
*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 
*RES 1: $1325.9 - 2018 High Jan 4
*PRICE: $1318.9 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1314.4 - Low Dec 5 
*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 
*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 
*SUP 4: $1289.0 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is less than ideal when combined with daily
studies looking to correct from O/B. In saying that, bears now look for a close
below $1314.4 to ease bullish pressure and below $1302.5 to shift focus back to
$1272.3-1289.0 where key DMAs are noted. While $1302.5 supports bulls maintain
focus on tests of $1357.5-1374.9 where 2016 & 2017 highs are situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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