MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressure On Key DMAs

*RES 4: $1.2052 High Jan 8

*RES 3: $1.2009 Hourly resistance Jan 8a

*RES 2: $1.1982 Hourly resistance Jan 8

*RES 1: $1.1950 Hourly resistance Jan 10

*PRICE: $1.1940 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1911 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1849 Daily Bull channel base (off Nov low) 

*SUP 3: $1.1829 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1806 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of 2017 highs has taken its toll with

the sell-off Monday leaving the pair looking heavy and seeing focus on support

layers $1.1808-1.1911 where key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated.

Layers of resistance accumulating and daily studies correcting from O/B adds

weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $1.2009 to return focus

to 2017 highs.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.3612 2018 High Jan 3 

*RES 2: $1.3585 High Jan 8 

*RES 1: $1.3553 Hourly support Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3533 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3505 Low Jan 9 

*SUP 2: $1.3491 Low Jan 1 

*SUP 3: $1.3456 High Dec 28 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3452 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble $1.3612 so far this week has left the pair

looking a little heavy and focus back on layers of support $1.3452-91 where the

21-DMA is noted. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus to

$1.3282-1.3338 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are situated.

Correcting O/B studies adds weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close

above $1.3585 to gain breathing room and above 2017 highs to target $1.3828.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus Returns To Y110.83-111.98

*RES 4: Y113.44 High Dec 22 

*RES 3: Y113.17 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: Y112.88 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Y112.42 Hourly resistance Jan 10

*PRICE: Y112.32 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 2: Y111.70 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA has been brief with the break below

Y112.86 leaving the pair looking heavy and reconfirming focus on the

Y110.83-111.98 support region where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears continue to

look for a close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a

close above Y113.44 to confirm a break of the channel top and shift overall

focus back to Y114.72.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressuring Key Support Region

*RES 4: Y135.99 Low Jan 5 now resistance

*RES 3: Y135.48 Hourly resistance Jan 8

*RES 2: Y135.11 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*RES 1: Y134.57 Hourly resistance Jan 9

*PRICE: Y134.11 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: Y133.31 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y133.15 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through took its toll with a sell-off

that leaves the pair looking a little heavy. Daily studies correcting from O/B

add weight to the case for a deeper correction. Bears now need a close below the

100-DMA (Y132.77) to add weight to the case for a move targeting Y130.59-132.03.

Bulls now need a close above Y135.11 to ease bearish pressure and above Y135.99

to retain focus on Y139.02-141.05.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 55 & 100-DMAs Key Resistance

*RES 4: Gbp0.8906 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8887 Hourly resistance Jan 5 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8851 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8834 Hourly resistance Jan 8

*PRICE: Gbp0.8820 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8790 Low Dec 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Monthly Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Having looked heavy Monday bears were not disappointed with closes

below key supports that sees focus back on the Gbp0.8690-0.8790 support region.

Overall bears need a close below Gbp0.8690 to confirm a bearish bias and

initially target the 100-WMA (Gbp0.8547). Bulls still need a close above the

55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to shift focus higher.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7802

*RES 4: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 3: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 2: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7874 - High Jan 5

*PRICE: $0.7825 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7703 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies looking to correct remain a key concern for bulls

who are initially focused on $0.7906 with overall focus on 2017 highs. Topside

hesitation to start the new week was less than ideal but bears continue to look

for a close below $0.7802 to gain breathing room. Bears still need a close below

the 200-DMA to shift initial focus to $0.7623 and hint at a move back to

$0.7499-00 with below $0.7580 to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: O/S Studies Correcting

*RES 4: 93.558 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: 92.930 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28

*PRICE: 92.447 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.396 - High Jan 8 now support 

*SUP 2: 92.100 - High Jan 5 now support 

*SUP 3: 91.751 - Low Jan 2

*SUP 4: 91.526 - Low Oct 19

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with the index

bouncing from ahead of last week's lows and bullish closes that sees pressure

back on 92.930-93.558 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall

focus to 95.167-464. Bears now need a close below 92.396 to gain breathing room

and below 92.100 to return pressure to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2.629-692

*RES 4: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 3: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: 2.558 - Low Mar 9

*PRICE: 2.551 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.531 - Hourly support Jan 9 

*SUP 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 

*SUP 4: 2.443 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year with the close above the weekly bear channel top

(2.529) adding support to the case for a move now initially targeting 2.629-692

where yearly and monthly highs are situated. Daily studies have room to move

before O/B becomes an issue. Bears now look for a close below 2.504 to gain

breathing room and hint at a correction back to the 21-DMA.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1302.5 To Pressure Key DMAs

*RES 4: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 3: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 2: $1325.9 - 2018 High Jan 4 

*RES 1: $1316.2 - Hourly resistance Jan 9

*PRICE: $1311.0 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 4: $1289.2 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is less than ideal when combined with daily

studies looking to correct from O/B. Bears continue to look for a close below

$1302.5 to shift focus back to $1272.8-1289.2 where key DMAs are noted. While

$1302.5 supports bulls maintain focus on tests of $1357.5-1374.9 where 2016 &

2017 highs are situated but need a close above $1325.9 to add support to their

case.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Bulls Focused On $64.11-65.17 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 2: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.11 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low)

*PRICE: $63.44 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $63.24 - Hourly resistance Jan 9 now support 

*SUP 2: $62.56 - Hourly resistance Jan 9a now support 

*SUP 3: $61.80 - Low Jan 9 

*SUP 4: $61.34 - Low Jan 8

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as gains above the 200-WMA $59.95 continue as do

fresh 3+yr highs with bulls focused on $64.11-65.17. O/B studies looking to

correct remain the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below $62.56 to

ease bullish pressure and below $61.09 to shift focus back to $58.60-59.93 where

the bull channel base and 21-DMA are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]