DALY SEES 'NO URGENCY TO ADJUST THE POLICY RATE'

MNI BRIEF: Fed’s Collins Sees Rate Cuts Later Than Had Thought

MNI BRIEF: China March M2 Slows More Than Expected

MNI BRIEF: China Tightens Stock Market Supervision

MNI BRIEF: China Mar Exports Jump On Demand; Imports Improve

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0967 Fri; -4.87% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 617; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 109

March Home Sales Jumped At End Of Month

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

11 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.2018
*RES 4: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 3: $1.2052 High Jan 8
*RES 2: $1.2018 High Jan 10
*RES 1: $1.1973 Hourly support Jan 10 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1944 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1918 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1.1849 Daily Bull channel base (off Nov low) 
*SUP 3: $1.1831 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.1814 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of 2017 highs has taken its toll with
the sell-off Monday leaving the pair looking heavy and seeing focus on support
layers $1.1814-1.1918 where key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated.
Layers of resistance accumulating and daily studies correcting from O/B adds
weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $1.2018 to return focus
to 2017 highs.
     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3612 2018 High Jan 3 
*RES 3: $1.3585 High Jan 8 
*RES 2: $1.3562 High Jan 10 
*RES 1: $1.3521 Hourly resistance Jan 10
*PRICE: $1.3488 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3454 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1.3344 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: $1.3300 Low Dec 15 
*SUP 4: $1.3288 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble $1.3612 so far this week has left the pair
looking a little heavy and focus back on the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close
below the 21-DMA to shift focus to $1.3288-1.3344 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the
bull channel base are situated. Correcting O/B studies adds weight to the
bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $1.3585 to gain breathing room and
above 2017 highs to target $1.3828.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y111.98
*RES 4: Y112.83 55-DMA 
*RES 3: Y112.42 Hourly resistance Jan 10 
*RES 2: Y112.24 100-DMA 
*RES 1: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance
*PRICE: Y111.78 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y111.26 Low Jan 10 
*SUP 2: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27 
*SUP 3: Y109.77 Daily Bear channel base 
*SUP 4: Y109.54 Low Sept 15
*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA was brief with the break below Y112.86
leaving the pair looking heavy and bears now focused on Y110.83 Nov lows. Bears
now need a close below Y110.83 to shift initial focus to the bear channel base
and overall focus to tests of 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above Y111.98 to
ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to shift focus back to
Y112.83-113.44 where the 55-DMA and bear channel top are noted.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With Key Supports
*RES 4: Y135.48 Hourly resistance Jan 8
*RES 3: Y135.11 Low Jan 8 now resistance
*RES 2: Y134.57 Hourly resistance Jan
*RES 1: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance
*PRICE: Y133.53 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.78 21-WMA 
*SUP 2: Y132.03 Monthly Low Dec 15 
*SUP 3: Y131.71 Low Nov 28 
*SUP 4: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through took its toll with a sell-off
that leaves the pair looking a little heavy and flirting with the 55-DMA
(Y133.31) & bull channel base (Y133.21). Bears now look for a close below the
21-WMA to confirm focus on Y130.59-132.03 where monthly lows are noted. Bulls
now need a close above Y133.88 to gain breathing room and above Y135.11 to shift
focus back to 2018 highs.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.8924 To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: Gbp0.8924 High Jan 4 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8902 100-DMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8887 Hourly resistance Jan 5 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8873 High Jan 10
*PRICE: Gbp0.8854 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support Jan 10 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8790 Low Dec 18 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15
*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA confirmed significance with the pair capped and
rejected aggressively ahead of this level. Failure to gain traction below the
55-DMA (Gbp0.8852) provides bulls hope with Gbp0.8873-0.8924 now key. Bulls need
a close above this region to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and initially target
Gbp0.8981-0.9048. Initial support is now noted at Gbp0.8838 with bears needing a
close below to retain focus on Gbp0.8690.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7906 Targets 2017 High
*RES 4: $0.8102 - High Sept 20
*RES 3: $0.8036 - High Sept 21
*RES 2: $0.7986 - High Sept 22
*RES 1: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7871 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7834 - Hourly support Jan 11 
*SUP 2: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 
*SUP 3: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 
*SUP 4: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies looking to correct remain a key concern for bulls
who are initially focused on $0.7906 with overall focus on 2017 highs. Bulls
take comfort in the break of $0.7874 and now need a close above $0.7906 to
confirm focus on 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below $0.7802 to ease
immediate bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA ($0.7766) to hint at a move back
to $0.7500 and below $0.7625 to confirm.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 91.751 Targets 2017 Low
*RES 4: 93.531 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 
*RES 2: 92.840 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: 92.640 - High Jan 9
*PRICE: 92.387 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 92.214 - Hourly support Jan 10 
*SUP 2: 91.922 - Low Jan 10 
*SUP 3: 91.751 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 4: 91.526 - Low Oct 19
*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with the index
bouncing from ahead of last week's lows and closes that sees pressure back on
92.840-93.531 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated. Bulls need a
close above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall focus to
95.167-464. Bears now need a close below 92.214 to gain breathing room and below
91.751 to return pressure to 2017 lows.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 
*RES 3: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 
*RES 1: 2.597 - 2018 High Jan 10
*PRICE: 2.540 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 
*SUP 3: 2.451 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.429 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 10mth highs is a
concern for bulls who are currently focused on 2.629-692 where yearly and
monthly highs are situated. Daily studies have room to move before O/B becomes
an issue. Bears continue to look for a close below 2.504 to gain breathing room
and hint at a correction back to 2.399-2.451 where the 21 & 55-DMAs and bull
channel base off Sept lows are noted.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Bulls Focused On $64.25-65.17 
*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 
*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 
*RES 2: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 
*RES 1: $64.25 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low)
*PRICE: $63.46 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $63.09 - Hourly resistance Jan 9 now support 
*SUP 2: $62.56 - Hourly resistance Jan 9a now support 
*SUP 3: $61.80 - Low Jan 9 
*SUP 4: $61.34 - Low Jan 8
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as gains above the 200-WMA $59.95 continue as do
fresh 3+yr highs with bulls focused on $64.25-65.17 where the bull channel top
remains. O/B studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls. Bears
need a close below $62.56 to ease bullish pressure and below $61.09 to shift
focus back to $58.60-59.93 where the bull channel base and 21-DMA are situated.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Concern
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 
*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 
*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 
*RES 1: $1326.6 - 2018 High Jan 10
*PRICE: $1318.9 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 
*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 
*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 
*SUP 4: $1289.6 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is less than ideal when combined with daily
studies looking to correct from O/B. Bears continue to look for a close below
$1302.5 to shift focus back to $1273.2-1289.6 where key DMAs are noted. While
$1302.5 supports bulls maintain focus on tests of $1357.5-1374.9 where 2016 &
2017 highs are situated but need a close above $1326.6 to add support to their
case.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Close
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
 of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        window.dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'logedout',
    'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut'
  });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        (function appendPosts () {  
    var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span');
    policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts);
    policyPosts.style.display = "block";
  
    var empolicyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('em-policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var empolicyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.em-policy-posts-span');
    empolicyPostsMenu.append(empolicyPosts);
    empolicyPosts.style.display = "block";

    var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span');
    dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts);
    dataPosts.style.display = "block";
})();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){
  item.href="/core/users/email_login/";
  item.innerHTML="Log In";
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll("img").forEach(function (img) {
    img.addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return false;
    });
  });
  document
    .querySelector(".site-logo img")
    .addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return true;
    });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        
  let posts = document.querySelectorAll(".all-content-wrapper .widget:not(.stream-story-processed)");
  window.check_story_posts(posts, "streamOfPosts");
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        /*
const sidebar = document.querySelector('.left-sidebar-container');
const stickyContent = document.querySelector('.sticky-content');
const siteContent = document.querySelector('.all-posts-stream');
if (sidebar && stickyContent && siteContent) {
  if (siteContent.clientHeight > sidebar.clientHeight) {
    console.log('grater -> ', siteContent.clientHeight + ' > ' + sidebar.clientHeight);
    stickyContent.style.height = (siteContent.clientHeight - sidebar.clientHeight) + 'px';
  }
}
*/
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});