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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

21 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2167-1.2273 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1.2331 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2312 Daily Bull channel base off Jan 10 low 
*SUP 2: $1.2273 Low Feb 14 
*SUP 3: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: $1.2167 Low Jan 17
*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel
top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs Friday sees immediate focus on the break of $1.2273
needed to confirm a break of the daily bull channel base. Overall focus is on
the break of $1.2167 to hint at a move back to $1.1915 and below $1.2089 to
confirm. Bulls need a close above $1.2461 to gain breathing room and above
$1.2515 to retain focus on the weekly bear channel top.
     CABLE TECHS: Capped Ahead of 200-WMA, $1.3923 Support Key
*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 
*RES 3: $1.4162 Low Feb 1 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.4086 Hourly support Feb 15 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.4033 Hourly resistance Feb 19
*PRICE: $1.3986 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3965 Hourly support Feb 20 
*SUP 2: $1.3923 High Feb 13 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 
*SUP 4: $1.3763 Low Feb 9
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Feb lows so far ($1.3765) sees bulls looking for
a close above $1.4162 to confirm focus on 2018 highs and the key 200-WMA lurking
above. A weekly close above the 200-WMA was last seen in Q4 2014. A close above
would target $1.5019 2016 highs. The $1.3923 support remains key. Bears still
need a close below $1.3923 to initially target $1.3657-1.3765. Bulls need a
close above $1.4086 to gain breathing room.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top
*RES 4: Y108.46 Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y108.38 21-DMA 
*RES 1: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*PRICE: Y107.71 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y107.38 High Feb 20 now support 
*SUP 2: Y107.01 Hourly support Feb 20 
*SUP 3: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19 
*SUP 4: Y106.10 Low Feb 19
*COMMENTARY: The Y105.50 support confirmed significance supporting on fresh 2018
lows. Bears need a close below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for a move to
Y99.08-101.15. Bulls look for a close above the daily bear channel top off 2018
highs to hint at a correction back to Y110.47 and above Y109.79 to confirm.
Correcting O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y106.03) remain concerns for
bears who now need a close below Y106.42 to retain initial focus on Y105.50.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Shift Focus To 2018 High
*RES 4: Y134.40 55-DMA
*RES 3: Y134.18 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y133.78 High Feb 13
*RES 1: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance
*PRICE: Y132.81 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.51 High Feb 20 now support 
*SUP 2: Y131.88 Low Feb 19 
*SUP 3: Y131.51 2018 Low Feb 16 
*SUP 4: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of the 200-DMA is gathering momentum with
layers of resistance Y133.78-134.40 seen as key. Bulls continue to look for a
close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and confirm a shift in overall focus
to tests of 2018 highs (Y137.50). Correcting O/S studies are supporting the
bullish case. Bears now need a close below Y132.51 to gain breathing room and
below Y131.88 to reconfirm focus on Y130.50-131.51.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below Gbp0.8776 Targets Gbp0.8647-85
*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8889 High Feb 16 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8876 200-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8837 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: Gbp0.8818 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the key Gbp0.8928 resistance has taken its toll
with recent hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA providing the impetus for a break of
21 (Gbp0.8818) & 55 (Gbp0.8832) DMAs. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8776
to confirm focus on Gbp0.8647-85 where the bear channel base and 2018 low are
noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to return focus to Gbp0.8928.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Breaks Key Support
*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20
*RES 1: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7855 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 
*SUP 2: $0.7807 - Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 3: $0.7773 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the break of the $0.7867 support that sees
initial focus back on $0.7229-0.7807 where 100 & 200-DMAs and the bull channel
base are noted. Below $0.7729 remains needed to end bullish hopes and shift
focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Daily studies are well placed for such a move. Bulls
now need a close above $0.7941 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989 to
return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 
*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18 
*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8 
*RES 1: 90.124 - High Feb 14
*PRICE: 89.819 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support
*COMMENTARY: The close above the 55-DMA (89.578) eased bearish pressure with
above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to
94.219-95.149. Initial support is noted at 89.442 with bears needing a close
below to signal a false break of the 55-DMA and return focus to 87.202-627 where
the weekly bear channel base and Dec 2014 monthly low are situated. Weekly
studies are currently correcting from O/S.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) $60.57 Support Key Today 
*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5 
*RES 3: $63.94 - High Feb 6 
*RES 2: $62.71 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance
*PRICE: $61.21 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $60.77 - Low Feb 16 
*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 
*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 
*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is a concern for bulls who continue
to look for a close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs ($66.65). Bears
continue to look for a close below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the
$57.88 support to confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($58.34) & target the 200-DMA
($53.70). Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to add support to their case.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Now On $1298.1-1311.6
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 
*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 
*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 
*RES 1: $1335.5 - Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1326.0 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 
*SUP 2: $1311.6 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high
resulted in breaks of key supports with bears gaining confidence and focus on
$1298.1-1311.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close below
the 100-DMA to hint at a move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the
200-DMA ($1285.4) to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1251.3 to return focus
to $1367.3-1374.9.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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