MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.2092-1.2205

*RES 4: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 3: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 2: $1.2350 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2226 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2018 High Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the $1.2092-1.2205 support region

following the recent topside failures ahead of $1.2372. Below $1.2092 is needed

to end bullish hopes and initially target $1.1915-88 where the 100-DMA is

located. Layers of resistance are weighing with bulls needing a close above

$1.2372 to confirm a break of 21 & 55-DMAs, and above $1.2461 to shift focus to

2018 highs.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3858

*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $1.4060 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high 

*RES 2: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 1: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27

*PRICE: $1.3899 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3858 Low Feb 22 & 27 

*SUP 2: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 3: $1.3771 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3731 Low Jan 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the lack of follow through on pops above the

21-DMA ($1.3993) with the pair looking a little heavy as a result. In saying

that, bears continue to look for a close below $1.3858 to reconfirm initial

focus on $1.3720-71 where the 55-DMA is located. Layers of resistance have

accumulated and add to bearish confidence. Bulls continue to look for a close

above $1.4150 to shift focus back to $1.4286-1.4349.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.03-42 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.95 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y107.68 High Feb 27

*PRICE: Y107.19 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.72 Hourly support Feb 26 

*SUP 2: Y106.36 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 3: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 4: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The Y108.03-42 resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close

above Y108.42 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and bear channel top, hinting at

a correction to Y110.47 and above Y109.78 to confirm. Correcting O/S daily

studies remain a concern for bears. While Y108.42 caps bears retain the upper

hand and remain focused on Y105.50. Bears continue to look for a close below

Y105.50 to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.59 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance

*RES 1: Y131.70 Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: Y131.05 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.91 2018 Low Feb 23 

*SUP 2: Y130.59 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 3: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to 2018 lows. Bears continue to look for a

close below Y130.59 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA (Y131.31) and shift

initial focus to Y127.54-129.34 where monthly lows are noted. Layers of

resistance remain Y132.24-134.28 where key DMAs are situated. Bulls need a close

above Y132.24 to ease bearish pressure and above the 55-DMA (Y134.24) to target

2018 highs (Y137.50).

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8928

*RES 4: Gbp0.8881 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8870 High Feb 20 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8844 High Feb 27 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8806 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8794 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: Bulls continue to struggle with layers of resistance

Gbp0.8870-0.8928 where the 200-DMA and a bear channel top off Aug highs are

located. Overall the Gbp0.8928 resistance remains key. A close above Gbp0.8928

is needed to target Gbp0.9013-48. While the 200-DMA caps bears retain the

advantage but now need a close below Gbp0.8771 to confirm focus on Gbp0.8617-85

where the 100-WMA and 2018 low are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Still Need Close Below $0.7729

*RES 4: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 3: $0.7878 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7869 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7818 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7787 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7784 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of $0.7867 last week shifted initial focus on

$0.7229-0.7779 where 100 & 200-DMAs are located although follow through has been

lacking. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7729 to end bullish hopes

and shift focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls now need a close above the $0.7910 to

ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989 to return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018

highs and May 2015 monthly highs are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus on 91.011-92.640

*RES 4: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9 

*RES 3: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.567 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: 90.407 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.080 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support

*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The 89.442 support confirmed significance this week with the dip

Monday finding support ahead of this level and seeing immediate pressure back on

the 90.567 resistance. The 91.011-92.640 resistance region is now key. Bulls

need a close above 92.640 to shift focus to 94.076-95.149. Support layers

building adds to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below 98.080 to gain

breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Looking A Little Heavy 

*RES 4: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 2: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27

*PRICE: $62.63 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $62.12 - Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 2: $60.76 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $59.60 - Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: Failure to better Monday's high and the hesitation ahead of $64.96

combined with O/B studies are a concern for bulls and leave the pair looking a

little heavy. The close below $63.06 eases bullish pressure with bears now

looking for a close below $60.57 to shift focus back to $57.90-58.96 where the

100-DMA ($58.96) is noted. Bulls now need a close above $64.96 to regain the

upper hand and target $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1318.0 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1314.0 - Low Feb 27 

*SUP 2: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1300.2 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 21-DMA ($1332.7) and rejection

ahead of the $1344.7-1351.3 region has taken its toll with a sell-off and dip

below the 55-DMA ($1318.8) that shifts focus to the 100-DMA. Bears need a close

below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to Dec lows ($1235.9) with below the

200-DMA ($1287.2) to confirm. Layers of resistance are building with bulls need

a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]