MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Target $1.2092-1.2153

*RES 4: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 3: $1.2438 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $1.2414 High Mar 14

*RES 1: $1.2348 Hourly resistance Mar 15

*PRICE: $1.2310 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2277 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2211 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to challenge the key $1.2446 resistance with the pair

looking heavy having broken back below $1.2340 and focus returned to the 55-DMA.

Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to target the key

$1.2092-1.2153 support region. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

lower. Bulls now need a close above $1.2348 to gain breathing room and above

$1.2446 to target $1.2555-1.2639.

     CABLE TECHS: Below $1.3836 Initially Targets $1.3710-54

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1.3997 High Feb 27

*PRICE: $1.3933 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3908 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3881 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3836 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of $1.3940 sees

pressure back on the 21 & 55-DMAs. Bears now look for a close below $1.3836 to

confirm a break of these DMAs and initially target $1.3710-54 and overall focus

shifting to $1.3585-1.3624 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls now need a close

above $1.3997 to reconfirm focus on $1.4150. Narrowing Bollinger bands increase

the risk of a break out.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y107.29 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y107.51 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.40 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*PRICE: Y105.87 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7, Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the Y105.79 level supporting although

accumulating resistance layers remain a concern. Bulls now need a close above

Y106.75 to gain breathing room and above Y107.29 to shift initial focus to

Y108.03-92 where the 55-DMA is located. While Y106.75 caps immediate focus

remains on 2018 lows with a close below to add weight to the case for a test of

Y98.95-101.15. Bolli bands narrowing hints at a break out in the near future.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y131.29

*RES 4: Y131.93 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*RES 3: Y131.70 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.29 Hourly resistance Mar 15a

*RES 1: Y131.03 Hourly resistance Mar 15

*PRICE: Y130.35 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.01 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y129.53 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.90 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy having broken Y130.49 with immediate focus

on Y129.33-53. Layers of resistance are following the pair lower with bulls now

needing a close above Y131.29 to signal a false break and return focus to layers

of resistance Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. The Bollinger

base (Y129.98) is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through as daily studies are well placed for losses.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8874-0.8904 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8892 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8874 High Mar 15 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8845 55-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8836 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8822 Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Monthly Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: Despite closing below the 55-DMA follow through has been lacking

courtesy of the daily bull channel base off 2018 lows. Bears now need a close

below the channel base to confirm initial focus on Gbp0.8685-0.8769 where

monthly and 2018 lows are noted. The Gbp0.8904 resistance remains key. Bulls

need a close above to confirm a break of the 200-DMA, gain breathing room and

return initial focus to 2018 highs and overall focus to Gbp0.9013-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7935 - High Feb 19

*RES 3: $0.7906 - Falling TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7889 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7827 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7783 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7770 - Hourly support Mar 16 

*SUP 2: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 100-DMA ($0.7775) has so far lacked follow through

with bears now looking for a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to the case

for a test of $0.7694-0.7710 where 2018 lows are situated. Daily studies are

well placed for a fresh leg lower with below $0.7694 to target $0.7500 Dec lows.

Bulls now need a close above $0.7842 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus

back to $0.7906-35 and above $0.7935 to hint at a move back to $0.8135-62.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.407 & 90.420 Levels Key

*RES 4: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 3: 90.264 - High Mar 9 

*RES 2: 90.219 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 90.187 - High Mar 12

*PRICE: 90.062 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.922 - Hourly support Mar 15

*SUP 2: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 3: 89.170 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 90.187-420 resistance region following

the failure to take out the 89.407 support. Bears still need a close below

89.407 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA (89.891), ending bullish hopes and

shifting focus back to 88.253 2018 lows. The 90.420 resistance remains key with

bulls needing a close above to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial

focus to 91.011. A close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.758-793 Support Region Remains Key

*RES 4: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 3: 2.883 - High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.857 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: 2.835 - High Mar 15

*PRICE: 2.823 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 4: 2.729 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.758-793 support remains key and reconfirmed significance with

the correction from 2.914 currently finding support ahead of this region. Bears

continue to look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift initial

focus back to 2.696-729 where the 55-DMA is noted. Overall focus shifts to

2.609-648. The Bollinger base (2.803) is the key concern. Bulls need a close

above 2.883 to gain breathing room and above 2.925 to regain the upper hand.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Above $64.07 To Target 2018 High 

*RES 4: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 3: $62.22 - High Mar 12 

*RES 2: $62.11 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $61.64 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $61.23 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.86 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: $60.18 - Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 4: $59.60 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support has emerged on dips back towards the key $59.18-91 support

region this week but layers of resistance $62.09-64.07 where the 55-DMA and bear

channel top ($62.67) are located remain key. Bulls need a close above $64.07 to

return focus to 2018 highs. Bears continue to look for a close below $59.18 to

hint at a move back to $54.10-55.90 with below $57.60 to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1312.9 & $1330.0 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: $1321.5 - Low Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1316.4 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1304.3 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1289.6 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 21-DMA ($1325.9) bulls failed to gain

traction above with pressure returning to $1312.9. Bears look for a close below

$1312.9 to return focus to $1289.6-1304.3 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and gain

breathing room whereas a close above $1351.3 remains needed to initially focus

on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]