MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2241

*RES 4: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 3: $1.2414 High Mar 14

*RES 2: $1.2348 Hourly resistance Mar 15

*RES 1: $1.2298 Low Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2269 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2241 High Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2208 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to challenge the key $1.2446 resistance with the break

back below $1.2340 leaving the pair looking heavy. Bears now look for a close

below $1.2241 to target the key $1.2092-1.2153 support region. Daily studies are

well placed for a fresh leg lower although the Bollinger base may limit follow

through. Bulls need a close above $1.2348 to gain breathing room and above

$1.2446 to target $1.2555-1.2639.

     CABLE TECHS: Below $1.3840 Initially Targets $1.3710

*RES 4: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 1: $1.3951 Hourly support Mar 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3969 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3889 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3840 Low Mar 12 

*SUP 3: $1.3781 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 4: $1.3754 Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of $1.3940 sees

pressure back on the 55-DMA. Bears look for a close below $1.3840 to confirm a

break of the 55-DMA and initially target $1.3710 with overall focus shifting to

$1.3585-1.3632 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls now need a close above

$1.3997 to reconfirm focus on $1.4150. Narrowing Bollinger bands increase the

risk of a break out this week.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y105.22 Targets Y99.08-101.15

*RES 4: Y107.53 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.40 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*PRICE: Y105.77 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 3: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016 

*SUP 4: Y99.08  2016 Low June 2016

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y105.79 left the pair looking heavy with bears focused

on the break of 2018 lows needed to add weight to the case for a test of the

Y99.08-101.15 support region. Layers of resistance building add to bearish

confidence. Bulls need a close above Y106.75 to gain breathing room and above

Y107.29 to shift initial focus to Y108.03-92 where the 55-DMA (Y108.68) is

located. While Y106.75 caps immediate focus remains on 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.01 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y131.73 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.29 Hourly resistance Mar 15a

*RES 2: Y131.01 Low Mar 14 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.43 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: Y129.79 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.72 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y129.48 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y129.06 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy having broken Y130.43 with immediate focus

on Y129.06-48 where 2018 lows, the 200-WMA & 55-WMA are noted. Bulls now need a

close above Y131.01 to gain breathing room. Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs

are situated remains key with bulls needing a close above to target 2018 highs.

The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through as daily studies are well placed for losses.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8842-0.8904 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8893 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8874 High Mar 15 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8842 55-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8809 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8714 Monthly Low Feb 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: The pair is gaining traction below the 55-DMA and remains heavy

following the break of the daily bull channel base off 2018 lows. Immediate

focus is on Gbp0.8769 with a close below needed to target retests of 2018 lows.

The Gbp0.8842-0.8904 resistance region is key. Bulls need a close above the

55-DMA to gain breathing room and above Gbp0.8904 to confirm a break of the

200-DMA, retuning initial focus to 2018 highs and overall focus to Gbp0.9013-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7694 To Target Dec Low

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7803 - 200-DMA, Hourly resistance Mar 16a

*RES 2: $0.7775 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7736 - Hourly resistance Mar 16

*PRICE: $0.7701 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7625 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7572 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure has returned to 2018 lows following the

aggressive break of the 100-DMA and bearish close. Bears focus on the close

below $0.7694 to confirm focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. The Bollinger base ($0.7703)

is the key concern for bears. Bulls look for a close above the 200-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above $0.7935 to confirm a break of the TL off 2018 highs

($0.7899), hinting at a move back to $0.8135-62 and above $0.7989 to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.407 & 90.420 Levels Key

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.609 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: 90.287 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.954 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.561 - Low Mar 14

*SUP 3: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: 89.299 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to 90.420 following the failure to take out

the 89.407 support. The 90.420 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close

above to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (90.188) and shift initial focus to

91.011. A close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751. Bears still need a

close below 89.407 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes

and shifting focus back to 88.253 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.883-2.957 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 3: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 2: 2.883 - High Mar 13 

*RES 1: 2.869 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.854 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.835 - High Mar 15 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The 2.758-793 support remains key and reconfirmed significance with

the correction from 2.914 finding support ahead of this region. Bears need a

close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.696

although the 55-DMA (2.737) may slow the move. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 2.883 to gain breathing room with a close above 2.957 2018 highs to

shift focus back to tests of 3.041 2014 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Above $64.07 To Target 2018 High 

*RES 4: $64.07 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.59 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 1: $62.56 - Falling daily TL off Feb 2 high

*PRICE: $62.10 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $61.76 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $61.60 - High Mar 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $60.86 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: $60.18 - Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the key $59.18-91 support

region provided the impetus for a close above 21 & 55-DMAs Friday with focus on

$63.05-64.07. Bulls need a close above $64.07 to return focus to 2018 highs with

the Bollinger band top their key concern. Bears now need a close below $61.60 to

ease bullish pressure and below $59.18 to hint at a move back to $54.10-55.90

with below $57.60 to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below 200-DMA To Target $1235.9

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: $1321.7 - High Mar 16

*PRICE: $1311.9 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1309.3 - Low Mar 16 

*SUP 2: $1304.6 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1289.8 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 21-DMA ($1324.0) bulls failed to gain

traction above Friday's losses seeing focus back on $1302.5-1304.6. The

Bollinger base ($1308.4) is the key concern for bears and limits follow through.

Narrowing Bollinger bands hint at a breakout. Bears look for a close below

$1302.5 to hint at a move back to $1235.9 and below the 200-DMA to confirm.

Above $1330.2 is needed to ease bearish pressure.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]