MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Target $1.2092-1.2161

*RES 4: $1.2384 High Mar 15

*RES 3: $1.2359 High Mar 19

*RES 2: $1.2332 Hourly support Mar 20 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2291 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2262 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2237 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: $1.2201 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.2161 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the $1.2384-1.2446 resistance region leaves the

pair looking heavy. Bears focus on $1.2092-1.2161 where the bull channel base

off Nov lows and the Jan 4 swing high are located. The Bollinger base is the key

concern with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance are

building with bulls needing a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and

above $1.2446 to target 1.2555-1.2639.

     CABLE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4087 High Mar 19 

*RES 1: $1.4021 Hourly resistance Mar 20

*PRICE: $1.4015 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3984 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: $1.3951 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.3908 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3840 Low Mar 12

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the Bollinger band top ($1.4057) is a concern for

bulls and hints at a move back to the 55-DMA with below $1.3984 needed to add

weight to the bearish case. Bears continue to look for a close below $1.3840 to

confirm traction below the 55-DMA and return focus to $1.3710. Bulls now need a

close above $1.4087 to reconfirm initial focus on $1.4150 and overall focus on

2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.75-107.29 Resistance Region To Watch

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.41 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y106.75 High Mar 14

*PRICE: Y106.47 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.27 Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Despite hesitating around the 21-DMA (Y106.49), downside follow

through has been lacking with support emerging ahead of 2018 lows and the

Bollinger band base (Y105.57). In saying that, bulls continue to look for a

close above Y106.75 to ease bearish pressure and above Y107.29 to shift focus to

Y108.03-42. Bears need a close below Y105.22 2018 lows to reconfirm overall

focus on Y99.08-101.15. Daily studies remain largely neutral.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y131.81 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y130.83 Hourly resistance Mar 20

*PRICE: Y130.55 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.27 Hourly resistance Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 2: Y129.85 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y129.48 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: The rejection at the 200-DMA and bear channel top off 2018 highs

Tuesday leaves the pair looking heavy with focus back on the Y129.07-48 support

region where 55 & 200-WMAs and the 2018 low are situated. Bears need a close

below the 55-WMA to target Y125.80-127.54. The Bollinger base is the key concern

having limited follow through. Bulls now need a close above the 200-DMA to

target Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Focused On Gbp0.8645-85

*RES 4: Gbp0.8874 High Mar 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8837 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8818 High Mar 19 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8799 High Mar 20

*PRICE: Gbp0.8748 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8741 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8714 Monthly Low Feb 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy as it pressures the Bollinger base

(Gbp0.8740) with focus on Gbp0.8645-85 where 2018 lows and 100-WMA are situated.

Initial resistance is noted at Gbp0.8799 but bulls look for a close above the

55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.8904 to confirm a break of the

200-DMA, retuning initial focus to 2018 highs and overall focus to Gbp0.9013-48.

The Bollinger base remains a concern with potential to limit follow through.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focus On $0.7500-80 While $0.7736 Caps

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7804 - 200-DMA, Hourly resistance Mar 16a

*RES 2: $0.7776 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7736 - Hourly resistance Mar 16

*PRICE: $0.7693 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7626 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7572 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low 

*SUP 4: $0.7500 - Monthly Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 4mth lows continue with the Bollinger band base

($0.7679) the key concern. Bulls need a close above $0.7736 to gain breathing

room and above the 200-DMA to shift focus back to $0.7842-0.7935 where the

falling TL off 2018 highs is noted. While $0.7736 caps bears remain focused on

tests of $0.7500-80 where Dec lows and the Bull channel base off 2016 lows are

situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.958-90.158 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.570 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 90.438 - High Mar 20

*PRICE: 90.264 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.158 - Hourly resistance Mar 20 now support

*SUP 2: 89.958 - Hourly resistance Mar 20a now support

*SUP 3: 89.846 - Low Mar 20

*SUP 4: 89.561 - Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: The marginal break of 90.420 has so far lacked follow through with

the Bollinger band top the key concern for bulls. In saying that, initial

support is noted at 90.158 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing

room and below 89.958 to shift focus back to 89.407-561. Bears need a close

below 89.407 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA (90.018), ending bullish hopes

and shifting focus back to 88.253 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.934 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.900 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.874 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: 2.833 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The 2.758-793 support remains key and reconfirmed significance with

the correction from 2.914 finding support ahead of this region and the recovery

breaking the bear channel top off 2018 highs. The close above 2.892 adds to

bullish confidence with a close above 2.957 2018 highs to shift focus back to

tests of 3.041 2014 highs. Bears now need a close below 2.833 to shift focus

back to 2.758-793.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Above $64.07 To Target 2018 High 

*RES 4: $66.02 - Monthly High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $65.63 - Monthly High Feb 2 

*RES 2: $64.10 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $64.07 - High Feb 26

*PRICE: $63.69 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 2: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a 

*SUP 3: $61.90 - Hourly support Mar 19 

*SUP 4: $61.45 - Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the key $59.18-91 support

region provided the impetus for a close above 21 & 55-DMAs Friday with focus on

$64.07. Bulls need a close above $64.07 to return focus to 2018 highs with the

Bollinger band top their key concern. Bears now need a close below $63.31 to

ease bullish pressure and below $62.52 to initially pressure $61.45.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1330.0

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: $1321.9 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1314.0 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 4: $1290.3 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA is less than

ideal with narrowing Bollis hinting at a break out. In saying that, bulls need a

close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $1330.0 to confirm a

break of the 55-DMA ($1329.3), shifting focus to $1340.7-1351.3. Bears need a

close below $1302.5 to hint at a move back to $1235.9 and below the 200-DMA to

confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]