MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 3: $1.2419 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $1.2412 High Mar 14

*RES 1: $1.2388 High Mar 22

*PRICE: $1.2332 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2285 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1.2174 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the falling TL ($1.2361) off 2018 highs has

been lacking with bears taking comfort in the rejection ahead of $1.2412-46

where the Bollinger top is noted. Bulls need a close above $1.2446 to confirm

focus on $1.2555-2627 where the LT bear channel top off 2008 highs is found.

Bears continue to look for a close below $1.2240 to confirm focus on

$1.2081-1.2174 with the 100-DMA at $1.2081.

     CABLE TECHS: Below $1.4066 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $1.4349 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $1.4286 High Jan 26, 200-WMA 

*RES 2: $1.4216 High Mar 22 

*RES 1: $1.4135 Hourly resistance Mar 22

*PRICE: $1.4114 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4076 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 2: $1.4066 High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3984 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $1.3930 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA has provided the base for a rally to fresh 2mth highs

with bulls now focused on the $1.4286-1.4349 region where 2018 highs are

located. Correcting modestly O/B daily studies are less than ideal for bulls. In

saying that, bears now need a close below $1.4066 to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and below $1.3984 to shift focus back to $1.3832-30 where the

rising TL off Nov 13 lows, 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Hesitating Ahead of LT Rising TL

*RES 4: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 2: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 1: Y105.22 Previous 2018 Low Mar 2 now resistance

*PRICE: Y104.79 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y104.62 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 2: Y104.21 LT Rising TL off 2016 low 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y106.75-107.29 has taken its toll resulting in

fresh 2018 & 18mth lows and hinting at a move targeting 99.08-101.15 where 2016

lows are noted. Bears now need a close below the LT rising TL off 2016 lows

coming in around Y104.21 to confirm. Bulls now look for a close above Y105.22 to

gain breathing room. A close above Y106.09 is needed to return initial focus to

Y106.75-107.29. The Bollinger base (Y105.21) is the key concern.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With Key WMAs

*RES 4: Y131.86 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.15 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 2: Y130.50 Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance

*RES 1: Y129.65 Hourly resistance Mar 23

*PRICE: Y129.25 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 2: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: Y126.51 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rejection at the 200-DMA and bear channel top Tuesday has

resulted in 2018 & 8mth lows as the pair currently flirts with 55 (Y129.05) &

200 (Y129.48) WMAs. Bears look for a close below the 55-WMA to confirm focus on

Y125.80-127.54 where monthly supports and the bear channel base are noted. Daily

studies approaching O/S is less than ideal. Bulls now need a close above Y130.50

to ease bearish pressure and above the channel top to pressure the 200-DMA.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-WMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Gbp0.8831 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8758 High Mar 21 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8744 Low Mar 20 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8736 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8707 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8645 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the 100-WMA was confirmed Thursday with an

aggressive bounce from fresh 2018 & 10mth lows. Daily studies correcting from

O/S increase the risk of a move back to Gbp0.8807-42 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8758 to confirm. The 100-WMA remains

key support. Bears look for a close below the 100-WMA to target

Gbp0.8495-0.8535. A close below the 100-WMA was last seen in Jan 2016.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Target $0.7500-80 While 200-DMA Caps

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7806 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7735 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7711 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7666 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: $0.7626 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

pair remaining capped around DMAs $0.7777-0.7806. Bulls look for a close above

the 200-DMA to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs and

55-DMA are located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to $0.8135-62. While the 200-DMA

caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 and now look for a close below $0.7669

to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base remains the key concern.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Follow Through Remains Absent

*RES 4: 90.536 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 2: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 1: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance

*PRICE: 89.625 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.417 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 89.396 - Low Mar 22

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The DXY continues to bounce back and forth between Bollinger bands

with follow through lacking on breaks of key support and resistance levels.

Bulls need a close above 90.445 to shift initial focus to 91.011 whereas bears

now need a close below 89.396 to shift overall focus back to 2018 lows (88.253).

In saying that, initial resistance is noted at 90.011 with bulls needing a close

above to ease bearish pressure and reconfirm sideways trading.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.758 Targets 2.585-648

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 2: 2.848 - Hourly resistance Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.815 - Hourly resistance Mar 23

*PRICE: 2.806 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.761 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through has seen pressure return to

2.758-786 where the 55-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base is key concern and

currently limits follow through. Bears continue to look for a close below 2.758

to end bullish hopes and initially target 2.585-648. Bulls now need a close

above 2.848 to gain breathing room and above 2.889 to shift focus back to

2.936-957.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bears Need Close Below $63.99 

*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.02 - Monthly High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $65.74 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: $64.98 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 2: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a 

*SUP 4: $61.45 - Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the sell-off Thursday with K18

bouncing from ahead of $63.99 today. Bears look for a close below this level to

ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to $61.45-62.52 where 21

($62.30) & 55 ($62.48) DMAs are situated. While $63.99 supports bulls remain

focused on $66.02-66 with a close above needed to target $69.54-73.25 last seen

in early 2014. The Bollinger band top ($65.15) is the key concern for bulls.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1318.3

*RES 4: $1355.0 - Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high 

*RES 3: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 2: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1340.7 - High Feb 26

*PRICE: $1338.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1323.3 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1306.2 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provided the base

for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1340.7-1355.0. The Bollinger top ($1337.5) is the key concern for

bulls. Layers of support have been left in the wake with bears now needing a

close below $1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1306.8 where the 100-DMA is

located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]