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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

25 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Flirting With 21-WMA & 100-DMA
*RES 4: $1.2402 Daily Bear channel top off Feb high
*RES 3: $1.2359 Hourly resistance Apr 19
*RES 2: $1.2312 Hourly support Apr 20 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2248 Low Apr 20 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.2221 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2180 Low Apr 24 
*SUP 2: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 
*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.2034 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 21-WMA ($1.2205) & 100-DMA
($1.2212) as bears focus immediate attention on $1.2153. Bears still need a
close below $1.2153 to shift initial focus to $1.2004-92 where the bear channel
base & 200-DMA ($1.2004) are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above
$1.2248 to gain breathing room and above $1.2413 to confirm a break of the bear
channel top and shift focus back to $1.2476-1.2555.
     CABLE TECHS: 21-WMA & 100-DMA Supports Key
*RES 4: $1.4171 Low Apr 18 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.4101 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $1.4031 High Apr 23 
*RES 1: $1.4009 55-DMA
*PRICE: $1.3979 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3916 Low Apr 24 
*SUP 2: $1.3885 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: $1.3873 Low Mar 13 
*SUP 4: $1.3860 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined after the lack of topside follow through on 2018 &
nearly 2yr highs last week. Immediate focus is now on $1.3852-73 where the
100-DMA & 21-WMA are located. Below these MAs then targets $1.3656-1.3710. Daily
studies remain well placed for losses. Bulls still need a close above $1.4031 to
gain breathing room and above $1.4171 to hint at a move back to 2018 highs with
above $1.4280 to confirm.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.54
*RES 4: Y109.90 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: Y109.79 High Feb 8 
*RES 2: Y109.45 100-WMA 
*RES 1: Y109.19 High Apr 24
*PRICE: Y108.98 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 
*SUP 2: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support 
*SUP 3: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support 
*SUP 4: Y107.48 Hourly support Apr 20
*COMMENTARY: Bulls flexed their muscles Monday confirming immediate focus on
WMAs & DMAs Y109.45-110.47. A close above Y110.47 is needed to confirm breaks
and target 2018 highs. Initial support is noted at Y108.54 with bears needing a
close below to gain breathing room. A close below Y107.85 is then needed to see
initial focus return to Y106.57-107.20 where the 21 (Y107.20) & 55 (Y106.82)
DMAs are situated. The Bollinger top (Y108.73) is the key concern for bulls.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Correcting O/B Daily Studies
*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8
*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9
*RES 2: Y133.50 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Y133.48 High Apr 24
*PRICE: Y133.18 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.59 Low Apr 24 
*SUP 2: Y132.02 Low Apr 20 
*SUP 3: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 
*SUP 4: Y131.63 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 100-DMA (Y133.04) & 21-WMA (Y132.97) finally took
their toll with a break higher Tuesday. In saying that, follow through has been
lacking courtesy of the Bollinger top with correcting O/B daily studies and
momentum divergence a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y132.59 to
see focus return to Y131.63-132.02 where the 21 (Y131.91) & 55-DMA are found.
Bulls now look for a close above Y134.16 to confirm focus on 2018 highs.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21-DMA & 55-WMA Levels Key
*RES 4: Gbp0.8841 Low Mar 14 now resistance 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8823 55-WMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8811 100-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8795 55-DMA
*PRICE: Gbp0.8742 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8733 Low Apr 20 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8725 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8686 Low Apr 19 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the Gbp0.8795-0.8823 resistance region where
the 55 & 100-DMAs and 55-WMA are noted leaves the pair looking a little heavy
and focus back on the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease
bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8664 to return focus to Gbp0.8380-0.8515. Bulls
still need a close above the 55-WMA to hint at a move back to Gbp0.8874-0.8904
with the 200-DMA at Gbp0.8883.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7640
*RES 4: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7702 - Hourly resistance Apr 20
*RES 2: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23
*RES 1: $0.7620 - High Apr 24
*PRICE: $0.7584 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7577 - Low Apr 24 
*SUP 2: $0.7498 - Monthly Low Dec 8 
*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 
*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 200-DMA ($0.7810) failures last week resulted in
fresh 2018 & 4mth lows with the pair flirting with the LT bull channel base off
2016 lows ($0.7603). Bears look for a close below $0.7577 to initially pressure
Dec lows. A close below Dec lows then targets $0.7326 May lows. Bulls need a
close above $0.7640 to gain breathing room and above $0.7735 to shift focus back
to $0.7810-42 where the 200-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base ($0.7588) remains
the key concern for bears.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 92.027 - 200-DMA 
*RES 3: 92.008 - Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 high 
*RES 2: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 
*RES 1: 91.076 - High Apr 24
*PRICE: 90.845 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 90.618 - Hourly support Apr 23
*SUP 2: 90.483 - Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support
*SUP 3: 90.209 - Hourly support Apr 20
*SUP 4: 89.906 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the pop above 91.011 is less than
ideal for bulls who now need a close above 91.076 to shift focus to
91.751-92.027 where the 200-DMA and weekly bear channel top off 2017 highs are
noted. The Bollinger top (90.894) remains the key concern and currently limits
follow through. Bears need a close below 90.483 to ease bullish pressure and
below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to 88.942-89.229.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Remains On 3.041-073
*RES 4: 3.168 - Weekly Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 1: 3.009 - 2018 High Apr 25
*PRICE: 3.001 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.957 - Low Apr 24 
*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 
*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 
*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls reconfirmed focus on 3.041-073 with fresh 2018 & 4+yr highs.
The Bollinger top (2.993) & O/B studies remain concerns for bulls. The 2.925-957
support region is now key. Bears now need a close below 2.957 to gain breathing
room and below 2.925 to shift initial focus back to 2.814-876 where 21 (2.837) &
55 (2.853) DMAs are situated. Bulls look for a close above 3.073 to shift focus
3.168-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $67.14
*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 
*RES 3: $70.85 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 
*RES 1: $68.33 - Hourly support Apr 24 now resistance
*PRICE: $67.72 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $67.14 - Low Apr 23 
*SUP 2: $66.54 - Low Apr 18 
*SUP 3: $65.79 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11
*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2018 highs Tuesday is a concern for bulls
when combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the
Bollinger top ($69.88). Pressure has returned to the $67.14 support. Bears look
for a close below $67.14 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to
$65.09-79 where the 21-DMA is found. Bulls need a close above $69.55 to
reconfirm focus on $70.85-73.25 where the MT bull channel top is noted.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 100-DMA Support Key This Week
*RES 4: $1355.7 - High Apr 18 
*RES 3: $1353.9 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: $1339.3 - Hourly resistance Apr 20 
*RES 1: $1336.7 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1328.8 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1321.2 - Low Apr 6 
*SUP 2: $1319.0 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: $1306.9 - Low Mar 20 
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Monthly Low Mar 1
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA as gold
flirts with the 55-DMA ($1331.1). Bulls look for a close above $1339.3 to
confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs with focus shifting to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018
highs are noted. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA to shift
initial focus back to $1291.2-1302.6 where the 55-WMA ($1291.2), 200-DMA
($1302.6) & March low ($1302.5) are located.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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