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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
4 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: $1.2230 100-DMA
*RES 3: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2032 High May 2
*PRICE: $1.1995 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19
*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22
*SUP 3: $1.1807 55-WMA
*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12
*COMMENTARY: Despite the close below the 200-DMA Tuesday ($1.2016) adding weight
to the bearish case with immediate focus on $1.1914 2018 lows, hesitation ahead
of this level combined with correcting O/S studies is a concern for bears. In
saying that, bulls still need a close above $1.2053 to gain breathing room and
above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to key DMAs $1.2230-87.
CABLE TECHS: 200-DMA Supporting For Now
*RES 4: $1.3877 100-DMA
*RES 3: $1.3792 High Apr 30
*RES 2: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3666 High May 2
*PRICE: $1.3582 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3539 200-DMA
*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11
*SUP 3: $1.3370 55-WMA
*SUP 4: $1.3300 Low Dec 15
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs has resulted in traction below
the weekly bull channel base ($1.3686) off Mar lows with immediate focus now on
the 200-DMA and 2018 lows. Bears now look for a close below $1.3456 to target
$1.2995-1.3032. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a
close above $1.3711 to gain breathing room and above $1.3792 to shift initial
focus to $1.3878-1.4026.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.54 & Y109.54 Levels Key Today
*RES 4: Y110.89 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: Y110.47 55-WMA
*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA
*RES 1: Y109.54 Alternating daily support/resistance
*PRICE: Y108.95 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.92 Low May 3
*SUP 2: Y108.71 100-DMA
*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23
*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with daily studies
correcting from O/B is a concern for bulls and currently weighs. Bears now look
for a close below Y108.54 to shift initial focus back to Y107.85 whereas below
Y106.57 is needed to see bears targeting 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above
Y109.54 to gain breathing room and above the 55-WMA to initially target
Y111.48-98.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Targeting Y128.94-130.43
*RES 4: Y133.40 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: Y132.54 High Apr 30
*RES 2: Y132.11 21-DMA
*RES 1: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance
*PRICE: Y130.68 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.42 55-WMA
*SUP 2: Y129.27 200-WMA
*SUP 3: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23
*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18
*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA added weight to the bearish case with a
close below Y131.05 confirming traction below the 55-DMA and shifting focus to
Y128.94-130.42 where 55 & 200-WMAs are noted. Daily studies approaching O/S are
the key concern for bears. Y131.19 is now initial resistance with bulls needing
a close above to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to Y132.11-54
where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7
*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance
*RES 2: Gbp0.8877 200-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8841 Low Mar 14 now resistance
*PRICE: Gbp0.8828 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8785 55-DMA
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8738 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26
*COMMENTARY: Support now emerging on dips is a concern for bears with focus
currently on the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8830). Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8841 to
confirm a break and hint at a move back to 2018 highs with above the 200-DMA to
confirm. Daily studies lingering at O/B levels is a concern for bulls. In saying
that, bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below
the 21-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8664-78.
AUSSIE TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Target $0.7722-0.7842
*RES 4: $0.7702 - Hourly resistance Apr 20
*RES 3: $0.7649 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24
*RES 1: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25
*PRICE: $0.7555 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7524 - Hourly support May 3
*SUP 2: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1
*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017
*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017
*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 lows with correcting
O/S studies providing the impetus for a correction. Bulls look for a close above
$0.7546 today to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA ($0.7649) to shift
initial focus to $0.7722-0.7842 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are found. While the
21-DMA caps bears retain focus on $0.7326 June 2017 monthly lows. Bears look for
a close below $0.7524 to add to confidence.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA
*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12
*RES 3: 93.280 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance
*RES 1: 92.834 - 2018 High May 2
*PRICE: 92.370 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2
*SUP 2: 91.959 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26
*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that
sees immediate focus on 93.035-280 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies
correcting and daily momentum divergence remain the key concern for bulls. In
saying that, bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room
and below 91.426 to shift focus back to 90.226-716 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are
located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.041-073 Resistance Region Remains Key
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25
*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2
*PRICE: 2.948 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20
*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20
*SUP 3: 2.899 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily
studies correcting from O/B). Immediate focus remains on 2.925. Below 2.925 is
needed to shift initial focus back to 2.868-904 where 21 & 55 (2.868) DMAs are
situated. The 3.041-3.073 resistance region remains key with bulls needing a
close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull channel top is
noted.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) $66.85 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $70.57 - Bollinger band top
*RES 3: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19
*RES 2: $69.34 - High Apr 30
*RES 1: $68.90 - High May 1
*PRICE: $68.39 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $67.69 - Hourly resistance May 3 now support
*SUP 2: $67.20 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $66.85 - Low May 1
*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11
*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs remain a concern for bulls.
Bears now look for a close below $66.85 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and add
weight to the case for a correction back to $64.10-26 where the 55-DMA ($64.26)
is noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on
$71.46-73.25 where the MT bull channel top is situated.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Hesitating Around 200-DMA
*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24
*RES 3: $1329.8 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: $1326.6 - High Apr 16
*RES 1: $1323.2 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: $1313.6 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1
*SUP 2: $1291.7 - 55-WMA
*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support
*SUP 4: $1277.3 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5 month lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA
($1304.8) and focus now on $1289.5-1301.5 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears look
for a close below $1289.5 to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA
($1234.6) and Dec low ($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance is now key. Bulls need a
close above this level to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs
are found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.