MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1750

*RES 4: $1.2018 200-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24

*PRICE: $1.1716 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1643 2018 Low May 25 

*SUP 2: $1.1632 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1624 High Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: Bears retain overall focus on tests of Nov lows at $1.1552

following fresh 2018 lows again Friday. The Bollinger base & O/S studies are the

key concern with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain

adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls still need a close above $1.1750 to

gain breathing room and above the $1.1889 to shift initial focus to

$1.2018-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Sub 55-WMA Weekly Close

*RES 4: $1.3445 Hourly resistance May 22 

*RES 3: $1.3421 Low May 23 

*RES 2: $1.3406 55-WMA 

*RES 1: $1.3351 Hourly resistance May 25

*PRICE: $1.3329 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3293 2018 Low May 25 

*SUP 2: $1.3219 Low Nov 28 

*SUP 3: $1.3065 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3037 Monthly Low Nov 3

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the pair resulted in a weekly close below the 55-WMA

which adds weight to the case for a move currently targeting $1.2995.-1.3065.

Bears now look for a close below $1.3293 to add additional weight as layers of

resistance continue to build. Bulls now need a close above $1.3421 to gain

breathing room and above $1.3617 to hint at a move back to $1.3792-1.3893 where,

55 ($1.3851) & 100 ($1.3882) DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.82 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.37 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.94 Low May 24 

*SUP 2: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: Y108.23 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y108.01 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week adding weight to the case for a correction

back to Y107.85-108.53 where the 21-WMA (Y108.14) and 55 & 100-DMAs (Y108.01-23)

are situated. Bears continue to look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks

of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to Y106.57. Bulls need a close above

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y110.72 to shift initial focus back

to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y125.80 Level Remains Pivotal LT

*RES 4: Y130.22 Low May 18 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.10 200-WMA

*RES 1: Y128.94 Low Mar 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y128.20 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.13 2018 Monthly Low May 25 

*SUP 2: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support 

*SUP 3: Y125.16 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y125.10 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs left the pair looking heavy last week

with fresh 2018 lows continuing Friday. The Y125.80 weekly support remains

pivotal. Bears look for a close below to shift immediate focus to the bull

channel base (Y122.37) and hint at a move to Y114.82-117.05 where the bull

channel base off 2012 lows is noted. Bulls now need a close above the 200-WMA to

gain breathing room and above Y130.22 to shift initial focus back to Y131.37.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8855 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8854 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8795 100-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8789 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8736 Low May 24 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 100-DMA capping Wednesday. Bulls continue

to look for a close above the 100-DMA to return initial pressure to

Gbp0.8854-0.8904 where the 55-WMA & 200-DMA are located. Initial support is

noted at Gbp0.8736 but bears continue to look for a close below Gbp0.8710 to

shift overall focus to retests of 2018 lows with a close below Gbp0.8664 then

needed to confirm.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7520 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7637 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7590- High May 25

*PRICE: $0.7571 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7520 - Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 3: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA ($0.7525) supports as narrow sideways trading defined

the latter part of last week. Bears look for a close below $0.7520 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias and target

$0.7326-68 where May & June 17 lows are noted. Layers of resistance remain

$0.7620-61 with bulls needing a close above the falling TL ($0.7661) to end

bearish hopes and shift focus to $0.7735-0.7842.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.841-93.921 Support Key

*RES 4: 95.580 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 94.650 - High Nov 10 now support 

*RES 1: 94.377 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 93.996 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.611 - Low May 24

*SUP 2: 93.291 - Low May 22

*SUP 3: 93.115 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in fresh 2018 highs to finish the week with

focus on the 94.650-95.167 resistance region this week. The Bollinger band top

continues to cap and O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. In saying that,

bears now need a close below 93.611 to gain breathing room and below 92.841 to

shift initial focus back to 91.962-92.223 where the 200-DMA is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.030-050 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.030 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 2: 2.991 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.935 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.906 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.831 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in closes below the 21-DMA confirming a shift in

focus to 2.876-906 where the 55-DMA is located. Correcting O/B studies added

weight to the bearish case last week. Bulls need a close above 3.030 to gain

breathing room and above 3.050 to shift immediate focus back to 3.084-155 where

2018 highs and the bull channel top are situated. Bears look for a close below

2.876 to target 2.717 Apr lows.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Focus On 63.87-65.38

*RES 4: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 3: $68.30 - Hourly support May 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $67.96 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 1: $66.78 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $66.23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.38 - Low Apr 17 

*SUP 2: $64.48 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $63.87 - High Apr 5 

*SUP 4: $61.73 - Monthly Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top provided the impetus

for an aggressive break of $70.24 Friday. Focus has shifted to the $63.87-65.38

support region with the contract currently trading below the 55-DMA. Bears now

look for a close below $63.87 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and initially

target $61.73 Apr lows. Bulls now need a close above $67.42 to gain breathing

room and above $68.30 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($70.09).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1310.5

*RES 4: $1326.0 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1321.4 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.2 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1298.9 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 3: $1282.9 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1277.1 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows combined with O/S

studies has provided the impetus for a bounce that saw gold pressuring the

200-DMA. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and

shift initial focus to $1321.4-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now

need a close below $1297.8 to ease pressure on the 200-DMA and return immediate

focus to 2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]