Free Trial

MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1552
*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.1838 High May 17
*RES 2: $1.1750 High May 24
*RES 1: $1.1643 Low May 25 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1627 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1604 2018 Low May 28 
*SUP 2: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7 
*SUP 3: $1.1477 Low July 20 
*SUP 4: $1.1431 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears retain overall focus on tests of Nov lows at $1.1552
following fresh 2018 lows again Monday. The Bollinger base & O/S studies are the
key concern with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain
adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls still need a close above $1.1750 to
ease bearish pressure and above the $1.1889 to shift initial focus to
$1.2017-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is noted.
     CABLE TECHS: Bears Focused On 1.2995-1.3064
*RES 4: $1.3445 Hourly resistance May 22 
*RES 3: $1.3421 Low May 23 
*RES 2: $1.3405 55-WMA 
*RES 1: $1.3351 Hourly resistance May 25
*PRICE: $1.3319 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3292 2018 Low May 25 
*SUP 2: $1.3219 Low Nov 28 
*SUP 3: $1.3064 100-WMA 
*SUP 4: $1.3037 Monthly Low Nov 3
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the pair resulted in a weekly close below the 55-WMA
which adds weight to the case for a move currently targeting $1.2995-1.3064.
Bears now look for a close below $1.3292 to add additional weight as layers of
resistance continue to build. Bulls now need a close above $1.3421 to ease
bearish pressure and above $1.3617 to hint at a move back to $1.3792-1.3893
where, 55 ($1.3839) & 100 ($1.3880) DMAs are noted.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Continues To Cap
*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 
*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 
*RES 1: Y109.79 21-DMA
*PRICE: Y109.03 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 
*SUP 2: Y108.19 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y108.05 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week adding weight to the case for a correction
back to Y107.85-108.53 where the 21-WMA (Y108.12) and 55 & 100-DMAs (Y108.05-19)
are situated. Bears continue to look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks
of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to Y106.57. Bulls need a close above
the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y110.72 to shift initial focus back
to Y111.39-98.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y125.80 Level Remains Pivotal LT
*RES 4: Y129.09 200-WMA
*RES 3: Y128.94 Low Mar 23 now resistance
*RES 2: Y128.53 High May 28
*RES 1: Y127.27 Hourly resistance May 29
*PRICE: Y126.79 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.47 Low June 28 
*SUP 2: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support 
*SUP 3: Y125.14 100-WMA 
*SUP 4: Y125.03 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs left the pair looking heavy last week
with fresh 2018 lows continuing. The Y125.80 weekly support remains pivotal.
Bears look for a close below to shift immediate focus to the bull channel base
(Y122.37) and hint at a move to Y114.82-117.05 where the bull channel base off
2012 lows is noted. Bulls now need a close above Y127.27 to gain breathing room
and above the 200-WMA to shift initial focus back to Y131.37.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8854 55-WMA 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8851 200-DMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8793 100-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8750 Hourly resistance May 28
*PRICE: Gbp0.8727 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8708 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 100-DMA capping attempts top break
higher. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-DMA to return initial
pressure to Gbp0.8851-0.8904 where the 55-WMA & 200-DMA are located. Bears take
comfort in Monday's sell-off but continue to look for a close below Gbp0.8710 to
shift overall focus to retests of 2018 lows with a close below Gbp0.8664 then
needed to confirm.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Looking For Close Below $0.7520
*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23
*RES 3: $0.7631 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24
*RES 1: $0.7590- High May 25
*PRICE: $0.7527 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7486 - Low May 18 
*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 
*SUP 3: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 
*SUP 4: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017
*COMMENTARY: The dip below $0.7520 is less than ideal for bulls with bears
looking for a close below this level to confirm a break of the 21-DMA ($0.7523)
and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias and target $0.7326-68 where May
& June 17 lows are noted. Layers of resistance remain $0.7590-55 with bulls
needing a close above the falling TL ($0.7655) to end bearish hopes and shift
focus to $0.7735-0.7842.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused On 94.650-95.167
*RES 4: 95.733 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 
*RES 2: 94.650 - High Nov 10 now support 
*RES 1: 94.505 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: 94.320 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 94.298 - High May 25 now support
*SUP 2: 93.841 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: 93.611 - Low May 24
*SUP 4: 93.291 - Low May 22
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs continue to start the new week with focus on the
94.650-95.167 resistance region this week. The Bollinger band top continues to
cap and O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a
close below 93.611 to gain breathing room and below 92.841 to shift initial
focus back to 91.969-92.223 where the 200-DMA is located.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.812
*RES 4: 3.030 - Hourly resistance May 23 
*RES 3: 2.996 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance 
*RES 1: 2.906 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: 2.904 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support, Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: 2.835 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: 2.812 - Hourly support Apr 12 
*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs now sees the yield trading
below the 55-DMA with immediate focus now on 2.812-835 where the 100-DMA is
located. Bears now look for a close below 2.812 to confirm a break of the
100-DMA and focus on tests of 2.717 Apr lows. Layers of resistance accumulating
are weighing with bulls needing a close above 2.955 to gain breathing room and
above 3.050 to shift immediate focus back to 3.084-155.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Focus On $63.87-65.38
*RES 4: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25
*RES 3: $68.30 - Hourly support May 25 now resistance 
*RES 2: $67.96 - Hourly resistance May 25 
*RES 1: $67.42 - Low May 25 now resistance
*PRICE: $66.77 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $65.80 - Low May 28 
*SUP 2: $65.38 - Low Apr 17 
*SUP 3: $64.49 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $63.87 - High Apr 5
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top provided the impetus
for an aggressive break of $70.24 Friday. Focus has shifted to the $63.87-65.38
support region with the contract flirting with the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a
close below $63.87 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and initially target $61.73
Apr lows. Bulls now need a close above $67.42 to gain breathing room and above
$68.30 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($70.12).
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Dominate While $1310.5 Caps
*RES 4: $1325.8 - 100-DMA 
*RES 3: $1320.9 - 55-DMA 
*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1307.2 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: $1297.7 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 
*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 
*SUP 3: $1282.7 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $1277.1 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows combined with O/S
studies provided the impetus for a bounce that saw gold pressuring the 200-DMA.
Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift
initial focus to $1320.9-1325.8 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now need a
close below the 100-WMA to target the 200-WMA ($1234.3).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_ACTIVE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); });