MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1552

*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 2: $1.1750 High May 24

*RES 1: $1.1643 Low May 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1627 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1604 2018 Low May 28 

*SUP 2: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7 

*SUP 3: $1.1477 Low July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1431 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears retain overall focus on tests of Nov lows at $1.1552

following fresh 2018 lows again Monday. The Bollinger base & O/S studies are the

key concern with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain

adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls still need a close above $1.1750 to

ease bearish pressure and above the $1.1889 to shift initial focus to

$1.2017-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Focused On 1.2995-1.3064

*RES 4: $1.3445 Hourly resistance May 22 

*RES 3: $1.3421 Low May 23 

*RES 2: $1.3405 55-WMA 

*RES 1: $1.3351 Hourly resistance May 25

*PRICE: $1.3319 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3292 2018 Low May 25 

*SUP 2: $1.3219 Low Nov 28 

*SUP 3: $1.3064 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3037 Monthly Low Nov 3

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the pair resulted in a weekly close below the 55-WMA

which adds weight to the case for a move currently targeting $1.2995-1.3064.

Bears now look for a close below $1.3292 to add additional weight as layers of

resistance continue to build. Bulls now need a close above $1.3421 to ease

bearish pressure and above $1.3617 to hint at a move back to $1.3792-1.3893

where, 55 ($1.3839) & 100 ($1.3880) DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Continues To Cap

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.79 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.03 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 2: Y108.19 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.05 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week adding weight to the case for a correction

back to Y107.85-108.53 where the 21-WMA (Y108.12) and 55 & 100-DMAs (Y108.05-19)

are situated. Bears continue to look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks

of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to Y106.57. Bulls need a close above

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y110.72 to shift initial focus back

to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y125.80 Level Remains Pivotal LT

*RES 4: Y129.09 200-WMA

*RES 3: Y128.94 Low Mar 23 now resistance

*RES 2: Y128.53 High May 28

*RES 1: Y127.27 Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: Y126.79 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.47 Low June 28 

*SUP 2: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support 

*SUP 3: Y125.14 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y125.03 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs left the pair looking heavy last week

with fresh 2018 lows continuing. The Y125.80 weekly support remains pivotal.

Bears look for a close below to shift immediate focus to the bull channel base

(Y122.37) and hint at a move to Y114.82-117.05 where the bull channel base off

2012 lows is noted. Bulls now need a close above Y127.27 to gain breathing room

and above the 200-WMA to shift initial focus back to Y131.37.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8854 55-WMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8851 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8793 100-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8750 Hourly resistance May 28

*PRICE: Gbp0.8727 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8708 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 100-DMA capping attempts top break

higher. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-DMA to return initial

pressure to Gbp0.8851-0.8904 where the 55-WMA & 200-DMA are located. Bears take

comfort in Monday's sell-off but continue to look for a close below Gbp0.8710 to

shift overall focus to retests of 2018 lows with a close below Gbp0.8664 then

needed to confirm.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Looking For Close Below $0.7520

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7631 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7590- High May 25

*PRICE: $0.7527 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017

*COMMENTARY: The dip below $0.7520 is less than ideal for bulls with bears

looking for a close below this level to confirm a break of the 21-DMA ($0.7523)

and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias and target $0.7326-68 where May

& June 17 lows are noted. Layers of resistance remain $0.7590-55 with bulls

needing a close above the falling TL ($0.7655) to end bearish hopes and shift

focus to $0.7735-0.7842.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused On 94.650-95.167

*RES 4: 95.733 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 94.650 - High Nov 10 now support 

*RES 1: 94.505 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 94.320 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.298 - High May 25 now support

*SUP 2: 93.841 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 93.611 - Low May 24

*SUP 4: 93.291 - Low May 22

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs continue to start the new week with focus on the

94.650-95.167 resistance region this week. The Bollinger band top continues to

cap and O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a

close below 93.611 to gain breathing room and below 92.841 to shift initial

focus back to 91.969-92.223 where the 200-DMA is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.812

*RES 4: 3.030 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 3: 2.996 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.906 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 2.904 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 2.835 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.812 - Hourly support Apr 12 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs now sees the yield trading

below the 55-DMA with immediate focus now on 2.812-835 where the 100-DMA is

located. Bears now look for a close below 2.812 to confirm a break of the

100-DMA and focus on tests of 2.717 Apr lows. Layers of resistance accumulating

are weighing with bulls needing a close above 2.955 to gain breathing room and

above 3.050 to shift immediate focus back to 3.084-155.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Focus On $63.87-65.38

*RES 4: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25

*RES 3: $68.30 - Hourly support May 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $67.96 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 1: $67.42 - Low May 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $66.77 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.80 - Low May 28 

*SUP 2: $65.38 - Low Apr 17 

*SUP 3: $64.49 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $63.87 - High Apr 5

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top provided the impetus

for an aggressive break of $70.24 Friday. Focus has shifted to the $63.87-65.38

support region with the contract flirting with the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a

close below $63.87 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and initially target $61.73

Apr lows. Bulls now need a close above $67.42 to gain breathing room and above

$68.30 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($70.12).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Dominate While $1310.5 Caps

*RES 4: $1325.8 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1320.9 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.2 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1297.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 3: $1282.7 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1277.1 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows combined with O/S

studies provided the impetus for a bounce that saw gold pressuring the 200-DMA.

Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift

initial focus to $1320.9-1325.8 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now need a

close below the 100-WMA to target the 200-WMA ($1234.3).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]