MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1506-89

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1695 High July 12

*PRICE: $1.1661 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1651 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA ($1.1740) was

less than ideal for bulls and sees pressure on the 21-DMA as the euro remains

offered. Bears shift focus back to the $1.1506-89 support region with below the

21-DMA to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above $1.1790 to

confirm traction above the 55-DMA and above the 55-WMA ($1.1922) to shift

initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1994) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are

found.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3244 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $1.3362 High July 9 

*RES 3: $1.3325 Hourly support July 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 1: $1.3244 High July 12

*PRICE: $1.3179 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 2: $1.3092 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.3314 resistance lacked follow through with

the move aggressively rejected ahead of the 55-DMA Monday. The break of $1.3188

has lacked follow thorough but bears now focus on $1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows

are noted. Bulls now look for a close above $1.3244 to gain breathing room. A

close above $1.3362 is then needed to shift initial focus to the 55-WMA

($1.3455). Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.86 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.24 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued

fresh 7mth highs with initial bullish focus now shifting to the Y113.24-74

region where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. Daily studies

approaching O/B and the Bollinger top (Y112.24) are the key concern for bulls

with potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to

ease bullish pressure and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.75

where key DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y133.48 Monthly High Apr 24

*RES 3: Y132.59 Low Apr 24

*RES 2: Y131.92 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.49 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y131.41 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.95 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.64 Hourly support July 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair gains topside traction and focus on

Y131.49-92 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. Daily studies back at very

O/B levels is the key concern for bulls. Overall bulls look for a close above

the 200-DMA to target Y133.48-135.67 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

Bears now look for a close below Y130.64 to gain breathing room and below

Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.30) to

confirm. 

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8779 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8849 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8817 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support and provided the base for a rally

that stalled just short of the Gbp0.8904 resistance Monday. Bulls need a close

above this level to shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger

top is noted at Gbp0.8883 and recently limited follow through. The Gbp0.8779

support remains key. Below Gbp0.8779 is needed to confirm breaks of 55

(Gbp0.8790), 100 (Gbp0.8785) & 21-DMAs, shifting focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7490 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7423 - Low July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7414 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7327 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to

tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence.

Bulls now need a close above $0.7423 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA

to hint at a move back to $0.7598-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7598) & 200 ($0.7685)

DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.531 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.408 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 95.141 - High July 2

*PRICE: 94.871 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.642 - Low July

*SUP 2: 94.018 - Low July 10

*SUP 3: 93.925 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from

the 55-DMA this week but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.531)

to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below 94.486 to gain breathing room

and below the 55-DMA to confirm initial focus on 92.837-93.193 and hint at a

move back to 100 (92.183) & 200 (92.266) DMAs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.875 - High July 10

*PRICE: 2.856 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.825 - Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted with a close below 2.807 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base

(2.798) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears and limit follow

through. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room

and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key

3.014-050 resistance region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Below 55-DMA To Target 100-DMA

*RES 4: $72.98 - Monthly High July 10 

*RES 3: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: $69.93 - Low July 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $69.30 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $68.40 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $67.76 - High June 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $66.77 - Low June 25 

*SUP 4: $65.78 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $73.00 has taken its toll on U18 with the sharp

sell-off seeing pressure on the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a close below $67.76

to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $65.78-66.77 where

the 100-DMA is noted. Layers of resistance building and correcting O/B studies

have recently weighed. Bulls now need a close above $69.93 to gain breathing

room and above $71.13 to shift focus back to $72.08-98.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1272.6 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 2: $1258.1 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1246.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1241.2 - LT Rising TL off 2015 low 

*SUP 2: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with pressure returning to the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below the

200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above

$1260.2 to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to $1272.6 where

the 100-WMA is noted and above the 100-WMA to initially target $1284.0-1292.1.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]