MNI: Five Star Seen Greater Italy Vote Threat Than Berlusconi

--Former PM's Role Might Be Crucial in New Government

--Berlusconi A Known Entity, No "Shock-Effect" on Debt Mkts

--Berlusconi Could Be Best Alternative to "Dangerous" 5-Star Movement

By Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - The perceived risks from a comeback and re-election of former

Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi as prime minister at next year's general

elections are seen as minor compared to rise of the "dangerous" and

"unpredictable" anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, several analysts have told

Market News. 

     "Berlusconi is set to win an increased block of votes, his Forza Italia

party might rise to a solid 25% support from its current 15%. His power stake

might thus turn out to be crucial in contributing to the formation of a new

government," said Andrea Ungari, professor of history and theory of political

parties at Rome's LUISS University.

     Yet Berlusconi, now over 80, must wait the verdict of Europe's court of

justice over his tax fraud conviction appeal before being able to officially

launch his candidature for premiership. Currently, he is banned form running. 

     Hi appeal kicked off last week, but the ruling of the EU judge is expected

to take months, so it is uncertain whether the decision will be handed down in

time for March and April, when Italians will likely go to the ballot boxes. 

     But even if he is cleared to stand, Ungari says Berlusconi is still not the

greatest electoral threat to Italy

     "The truth is, a Berlusconi comeback -- despite all his past scandals -- is

considered a minor threat compared to the danger that of a 5 Star Movement

government being formed based on hatred, populism, anti-politics ideology and a

lack of a real ruling program," said Ungari, who argued that Berlusconi still

had a lot of "charisma leadership appeal" and would beable to lure and motivate

centre-right voters.

     Berlusconi might paradoxically be Italy's best chance of survival, both if

he runs directly or indirectly by sponsoring another member of his party. 

     He is seen as the electoral advantage that, depending on who he decides at

the last-minute to ally with -- the Democrats or centre-right groups -- it will

tilt the balance of power in their favour to form a new government. 

     Berlusconi's future as candidate, and possible, next premier will of course

depend on the timing and outcome of the EU court ruling, noted Ungari, but even

now Berlusconi's early electoral campaigning is resuscitating centre-right

voters.

     Ungari, though warned that when it comes to Berlusconi, one should never

say never as to the chance of him running directly, even though he is now over

80. 

     Paolo Manasse, professor of Economics at the University of Bologna, ruled

out a Berlusconi return triggering market instability and negatively impacting

on Italy's credibility on world markets. Berlusconi was last ousted from office

back in 2011 when Italy neared a full blown sovereign debt crisis. 

     "Markets hate surprises that trigger uncertainty, they want continuity.

Berlusconi is no longer a shocking surprise unlike 5-Star. He's been several

times premier, so markets know what and what not to expect from him, he no

longer poses a surprise shock," said Manasse, who argued that the Democrats, now

ruling the country amid ongoing internal divisions, are too weak to ensure

continuity and governability. 

     One thing is sure: none of Italy's three major political formations -- the

centre-right where Berlusconi could become the biggest player, the Democrats or

the 5-Star Movement -- are in a position to secure enough votes alone to form a

government without requiring support from other parties. 

     Italy's leadership crisis is also creating a power vacuum that Berlusconi,

with his enduring "appeal", could fill, noted Ungari. 

     "Renzi will hardly rise again after the constitutional reform referendum

blow last year and the centre-left wants him out of the way, as they are far too

focused on an internal battle that is turning into a suicide mission, while the

5-Star Movement lack government experience and are not credible".

     According to Ungari, the dangerous message being sent out by the movement

launched by comic Beppe Grillo is that anyone -- "even housewives" -- can become

members of parliament but then once elected have no solid arguments nor

initiatives to pursue. 

     Several of Berlusconi's historical enemy intellectuals and commentators

have lately reconsidered their stances against the tycoon, acknowledging that if

they had to choose between him and the 5-Star Movement, Berlusconi would today

be their best option. 

     Despite both Berlusconi and Renzi currently ruling out teaming up, it has

happened more than once that eventually they strike secret pacts to pass through

parliament crucial measures and laws. "For sure, a Renzi-Berlusconi alliance

isn't easy, but at least both are concerned about governability," said Ungari. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MFIBU$,M$E$$$,M$I$$$,M$X$$$,MC$$$$,MI$$$$,MFX$$$,MGX$$$]