MNI FIVE THINGS: UK Consumers Fear Of Unknown Remains

--GfK UK Consumer Confidence A Touch Better At -13 In Feb

--Economic Situation Up Marginally

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - The February GfK UK consumer confidence survey showed the

headline index at -13, up by 1 point from the January, which was the lowest

since mid-2013.

     The following are key points from the report:

     --The GfK Consumer Confidence Index came in at -13 in February, up from the

-14 reading in January. Whilst notably above the -39 trough of the global

financial crisis, it remains subdued, below both the 13-month and 12-month

average. 

     However, it is worth noting is the index has not seen the same dramatic

drop evidenced after the June 2016 Brexit referendum. 

     --None of the sub indices lost ground in February, with both personal

financial situation over the last and next twelve months unchanged and the other

three indicators up. Consumers remained upbeat over their personal finances but

remain concerned with the general economic situation over the past twelve months

and the next twelve months. 

     --The February reading of -38 for the general economic situation over the

next 12 months, whilst up from -39 in January is still disconcerting. January's

reading was the weakest for just over seven years and thus a +1 change does

little to change the general feeling of pessimism. 

     -The measure for the outlook for personal finances over the next 12 months

remained unchanged from the two point jump to a positive reading of 1 in

January. Moreover, the Major Purchase Index, asking consumers whether now was a

good time to buy a big ticket item, was up three points to +5 in February, five

points higher than a year ago. 

     --The composite headline index reflects the balance of the relatively

upbeat expectations for personal finances and the gloom over the economic

outlook. There is some evidence that consumers perceptions of the personal

finances may be a better guide to future spending, but there is a diversity of

views among economists over how useful confidence measures are as a guide to

future spending.

     --Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK, attributed the economic

gloom to Brexit related uncertainty, he also notes that "... topline consumer

confidence is stable again this month,". Staton in particular points to the fact

there has not been a similar post Brexit referendum decline. 

     --The savings index, a measure of whether now is a good time to

save,reflected consumer uncertainty, rising 4 points to 18 in February from 14

in January. This was six points higher than the reading in February 2018. 

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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