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MNI: GERMAN DATA: Trade Balance (Mar 2019) Preview...>

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MNI: GERMAN DATA: Trade Balance (Mar 2019) Preview - 07:00 BST
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- Trade Bal: Bbg Consensus: EUR20.0bn (nsa); Prev (Feb): EUR17.9bn (nsa)
- Exports: Bbg Cons: -0.4% m/m (sa); Prev (Feb): -1.3% m/m (sa), 3.9% y/y (nsa)
- Imports: Bbg Cons: 0.5% m/m (sa); Prev (Feb): -1.6% m/m (sa), 5.1% y/y (nsa)
- Germany's sa trade surplus widened by EUR0.1bn in Feb to EUR18.7bn
- The value of exports decreased by 1.3% m/m, the worst reading in 12 months...
- ... while imports fell at the steepest rate since Aug (-1.6% m/m)
- However, global trade in Feb was disrupted by the Lunar New Year holiday 
- Markets look for less volatile developments in Mar...
- ... which would imply q/q export & import growth of 0.1% & 0.5% for Q1... 
- ... consistent with a slightly negative contribution to q/q GDP growth,
following a flat contribution in Q4
- Looking ahead, import growth should continue to be supported by relatively
robust domestic dynamics...
- ... while the outlook for exports remains muted amid subdued global demand

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