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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Global Macro Outlook-Feb 2023: Sticking The Landing
MNI Global Macro Outlook-Feb 2023: Sticking The Landing
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
MNI's February 2023 Global Macro Outlook meeting took a look at the ongoing change in the prevailing narrative from looking for a "soft landing" to "no landing" at all.
- Consensus in late 2022: slowdown/soft landing by mid-2023 would keep risk assets on the defensive and force central banks to hold off on hikes in H2, leading to cuts as inflation subsided.
- But market moves on incoming data suggest “no landing” has a higher implied probability vs a couple of months ago.
- The historical record suggests a "soft landing" outcome is rare. A "no landing" could turn out to be the worst scenario for both risk assets and bonds as it implies sustained underlying inflation pressures and significant further monetary tightening until we get a "harder" landing.
For full PDF publication:
February 2023 - Global Macro Outlook1.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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